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South Korea Box Office - Frozen 2 wins big with one of the highest OW of all time

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2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Was just  about to update. Thing will be at 650k end of the range I gave. 650-660 unless night pace or CGV ratio do something weird. Thinking FSS all about 45% weekly drop, for a 1.4M or so 3rd weekend. Hoping next week can be kind of soft, but we’ll see.

:bourne:

:whosad:

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3 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

:bourne:

:whosad:

Tbh I had been saying this since it's OW. 3rd weekend always drops harder unless amazing WoM. It's a normal patern and nothing bad.

 

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10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Tbh I had been saying this since it's OW. 3rd weekend always drops harder unless amazing WoM. It's a normal patern and nothing bad.

 

So what can we think about the WoM of this movie based on this 45% drop?

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After having a $5mn 7th weekend, Bohemian Rhapsody added $13mn during 17th December to 6th January, that;s with facing a big drop next weekend due to release of Aquaman.

Dec 14-16 1 $5,008,050 -8.1% 1,004 +51 $4,988 $61,137,835 7
Dec 21-23 4 $2,778,343 -44.5% 713 -291 $3,896 $65,398,015 8
Dec 28-30 4 $2,207,512 -20.5% 636 -77 $3,470 $69,956,948 9
Jan 4-6 3 $1,665,515 -24.6% 708 +72 $2,352 $73,953,144 10

 

I expect $6mn next weekend, with iirc no big releases, shall add another $15-20mn in next 21 days. That will be $100-105mn. Will close at $105-106mn.

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7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

After having a $5mn 7th weekend, Bohemian Rhapsody added $13mn during 17th December to 6th January, that;s with facing a big drop next weekend due to release of Aquaman.

Dec 14-16 1 $5,008,050 -8.1% 1,004 +51 $4,988 $61,137,835 7
Dec 21-23 4 $2,778,343 -44.5% 713 -291 $3,896 $65,398,015 8
Dec 28-30 4 $2,207,512 -20.5% 636 -77 $3,470 $69,956,948 9
Jan 4-6 3 $1,665,515 -24.6% 708 +72 $2,352 $73,953,144 10

 

I expect $6mn next weekend, with iirc no big releases, shall add another $15-20mn in next 21 days. That will be $100-105mn. Will close at $105-106mn.

But the ATP of F2 is lower.....:whosad:

 

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3 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

But the ATP of F2 is lower.....:whosad:

 

Where did I mentioned Footfalls? I am going with Gross.

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49 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

So what can we think about the WoM of this movie based on this 45% drop?

That it's good but not amazing.

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It’s a 5% better drop than I thought earlier in the week 😛     
 

YUGE 3rd weekend, I mean we are still talking bigger than Veteran and AWTG2 iirc. Roughly 70% over Endgame 3rd weekend, which had spectacular reception. You just can’t expect a great drop here when so much of the country has already seen it and the 2nd weekend was so huge.

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47 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

YUGE 3rd weekend, I mean we are still talking bigger than Veteran and AWTG2 iirc. Roughly 70% over Endgame 3rd weekend, which had spectacular reception. You just can’t expect a great drop here when so much of the country has already seen it and the 2nd weekend was so huge.

It will do 1.4mn admits this weekend, for a cume of 10.72mn. I have literally no problem in seeing, how it miss another 3.5mn from here considering Xmas is coming, might even target 4-4.3mn.

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47 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’s a 5% better drop than I thought earlier in the week 😛     
 

YUGE 3rd weekend, I mean we are still talking bigger than Veteran and AWTG2 iirc. Roughly 70% over Endgame 3rd weekend, which had spectacular reception. You just can’t expect a great drop here when so much of the country has already seen it and the 2nd weekend was so huge.

-45% looks bad imo ....

Don't know if it can fall in the same range with Avatar/Endgame...

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How much did Endgame make in SK. And where is the difference between frozen and end game coming from , Opening weekend ? Sorry I didn't follow endgame during it's release.

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29 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

-45% looks bad imo ....

Don't know if it can fall in the same range with Avatar/Endgame...

45% isn't bad at all, it's a lot better then End game's drops.

I am intrested to know how you mesure if holds are good or bad, what metric do you use and on what do you bases your arguments?

Edited by pepsa
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4 minutes ago, Damien said:

How much did Endgame make in SK. And where is the difference between frozen and end game coming from , Opening weekend ? Sorry I didn't follow endgame during it's release.

EG weekdays where bigger than F2's. F2's weekend was as big as EG's was ( sat and sun where bigger) but it's wed and thursday where quite a bit smaller. EG also had a holiday on the tuesday or wednesday after it's OW so that gave it a big bump.

 

Also before this year only Avatar reached over 12.5m admission now we will have 3 of them in one year so both EG, Aladin and F2 are insane succes here in SK.

Edited by pepsa
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On 12/4/2019 at 11:28 PM, Arendelle Legion said:

Also here’s an updated projection table based on where things will stand after a 170k Thursday:  

Cume week   drops  wkMulti final admits 

9.33    3.35    55.0%    1.82    12.073
9.33    3.35    50.0%    2.00    12.682
9.33    3.35    47.5%    2.11    13.035
9.33    3.35    45.0%    2.22    13.427
9.33    3.35    42.5%    2.35    13.864
9.33    3.35    40.0%    2.50    14.357
9.33    3.35    37.5%    2.67    14.915
9.33    3.35    35.0%    2.86    15.554   
 

So around 51% drops will get it into top 3, feels very safe to me. 44% or so to beat Avatar and 42% or so to beat Endgame. Both live, but not trivial. Will update again after Sat numbers using projected Sun cume.  

When you calculated this, you already included upcoming holiday factor into it or not?

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FROZEN 2 Crossed 10,000,000 admissions.

 

 

1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S.

Nov 21, 2019 $4,413,989
($71,272,618)
607,946
(10,166,639)
1,824 61.03%
Edited by Jedi Jat
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4 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

FROZEN 2 Crossed 10,000,000 admissions.

 

 

1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S.

Nov 21, 2019 $4,413,989
($71,272,618)
607,946
(10,166,639)
1,824 61.03%

That Sat admissions is still being updated.

It is at around 613k now. 

Assume it will be at 614.5k-615k, then Sat drop is around 46%

Edited by PKMLover

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7 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Was just  about to update. Thing will be at 650k end of the range I gave. 650-660 unless night pace or CGV ratio do something weird. Thinking FSS all about 45% weekly drop, for a 1.4M or so 3rd weekend. Hoping next week can be kind of soft, but we’ll see.

 

Forgive me because I'm newer to the international numbers. 

I'm noticing however that Sunday presales on KOBIS are currently 229 169. 

Isn't that huge compared to Saturday's presales? Is that normal for this market?

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1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

That Sat admissions is still being updated.

It is at around 613k now. 

Yeah, final will be 620k or more. 

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8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Yeah, final will be 620k or more. 

It will pass the total admissions of Frozen 1 on tomorrow, maybe the total money gross of Frozen 1 too but i'm not sure.... maybe it needs monday gross for that

Edited by PKMLover

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5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Forgive me because I'm newer to the international numbers. 

I'm noticing however that Sunday presales on KOBIS are currently 229 169. 

Isn't that huge compared to Saturday's presales? Is that normal for this market?

kobis lists all future PS. Sunday CGV you have to get from CGV score. I dont know how @Arendelle Legion does it, but he can project a day number from that. So let him come up with Sunday prediction.

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