South Korea Box Office

[Legion Again]

Oof, wow. Final CGV as expected, but an over 48% CGV ratio is surprisingly bad compared to OD, 1st Fri, and Culture Day which all had very similar final CGV.    
 

CGV PS at 114k, thinking a 520k day after how Sat went. Would be a 1.37M weekend which is still a respectable 47.5% drop or so, better than things could have gone. I recommend everybody with high hopes wait for an idea of next week.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Oof, wow. Final CGV as expected, but an over 48% CGV ratio is surprisingly bad compared to OD, 2st Fri, and Culture Day which all had very similar final CGV.    
 

PS at 114k, thinking a 520k day after how Sat went. Would be a 1.37M weekend which is still a respectable 47.5% drop or so, better than things could have gone. I recommend everybody with high hopes wait for an idea of next week.

you made me scared with this... it will fall off the cliff on next weekend? 

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

you made me scared with this... it will fall off the cliff on next weekend? 

No, I’m saying that the 3rd weekend was destined for a serious drop since the 2nd was so ridiculous, but since the 3rd is more reasonable there is some room to hope that the 4th weekend drop will be nicer. That said 4th week could also drop high 40s and it would still be on track for an incredible 13M+ admits.

[PKMLover]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

No, I’m saying that the 3rd weekend was destined for a serious drop since the 2nd was so ridiculous, but since the 3rd is more reasonable there is some room to hope that the 4th weekend drop will be nicer. That said 4th week could also drop high 40s and it would still be on track for an incredible 13M+ admits.

When will the holiday start in Korea? Can it help the late legs for F2 here? 

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

kobis lists all future PS. Sunday CGV you have to get from CGV score. I dont know how @Arendelle Legion does it, but he can project a day number from that. So let him come up with Sunday prediction.

On 00:20 of Day N I record the KOBIS PS, which are now all for day N and forward. Divide CGV PS by a ratio related to the estimated final CGV ratio of the day (a bit higher, since I assume as a main chain CGV has a higher concentration of presale than end of day business) to estimate overall PS for day N. Then you can divide estimated Day N overall PS by KOBIS to see what % went to a Day N, and subtract from KOBIS to see what quantity is for Day N+1 forward.     
 

In this case, Sat 00:20 KOBIS was 357k, and with 128k CGV I estimate roughly 265k overall PS for Sat. So about 74% of PS for Sat forward were for Sat exactly, and there were roughly 92k presale for Sun forward. By the time of 00:20 Sun, Sun forward presale are 229k, a growth of roughly 150%. About 95% of them have gone to Sun exactly in the form of 114k CGV Sun PS= approx 217k overall Sun PS. That leaves about 12k right now for Mon forward.

 

Unfortunately, I only added this KOBIS tracking to the sheet starting a bit of the way through F2’s run. If I wanted to use that fact to try to forecast a Mon number before seeing any direct Mon data, I would have to compare to the behavior of F2’s 2nd Mon, and I don’t think that would come out quite right (just for kicks, getting 14k CHV PS and 105k day — Don’t take that too seriously here). The idea is to eventually have a bank of data for KOBIS/overall PS behavior of movies, and then perhaps we can estimate a day or two further ahead for movies in late 2020 or 2021 with decent results.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Claudio]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

you made me scared with this... it will fall off the cliff on next weekend? 

You need to settle down and relax for a bit. Nothing bad will happen F2 judging from its performance this far. Your anxiety will kill you for nothing if you keep worried about it all the time...

[Legion Again]

15 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

thinking a 520k day

With afternoon numbers feeling like I pretty much nailed this one. Would not mind to wake up to a CGV ratio surprise in the opposite direction though.

[PKMLover]

25 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

With afternoon numbers feeling like I pretty much nailed this one. Would not mind to wake up to a CGV ratio surprise in the opposite direction though.

Sun: 520k. Last week: 979k. Drop 46.8%

Sat: drop 47.5%

Fri: drop 45%

This weekend: drop 46.5%

[Legion Again]

Early number 525k, so call it 530k. More normal CGV ratio than yesterday.  
 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$3,808,563 ($75,128,159)	525,346 (10,697,866)	1,831	59.87%
2		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$1,019,667 ($3,441,120)	132,231 (456,116)	925	16.03%
3		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$433,186 ($1,656,512)	58,532 (236,586)	654	6.81%
4		A Little Princess South Korea	Dec 04, 2019	$393,177 ($1,716,225)	55,643 (263,328)	691	6.18%
5		Last Christmas U.S.	Dec 05, 2019	$266,436 ($1,014,781)	36,323 (143,729)	587	4.18%
6		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$164,949 ($17,207,086)	22,203 (2,428,344)	436	2.59%

And here’s updated projection table. Please keep in mind that no HW movie this decade had gotten to 12 before this year.  
cume   Week  drops   Wk mult  finish

10.70    2.12    55.0%    1.82    12.436
10.70    2.12    52.5%    1.90    12.620
10.70    2.12    50.0%    2.00    12.821
10.70    2.12    47.5%    2.11    13.045
10.70    2.12    45.0%    2.22    13.293
10.70    2.12    42.5%    2.35    13.570
10.70    2.12    40.0%    2.50    13.881
10.70    2.12    37.5%    2.67    14.235
10.70    2.12    35.0%    2.86    14.639

[PKMLover]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Early number 525k, so call it 530k. More normal CGV ratio than yesterday.  
 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$3,808,563 ($75,128,159)	525,346 (10,697,866)	1,831	59.87%
2		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$1,019,667 ($3,441,120)	132,231 (456,116)	925	16.03%
3		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$433,186 ($1,656,512)	58,532 (236,586)	654	6.81%
4		A Little Princess South Korea	Dec 04, 2019	$393,177 ($1,716,225)	55,643 (263,328)	691	6.18%
5		Last Christmas U.S.	Dec 05, 2019	$266,436 ($1,014,781)	36,323 (143,729)	587	4.18%
6		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$164,949 ($17,207,086)	22,203 (2,428,344)	436	2.59%

And here’s updated projection table. Please keep in mind that no HW movie this decade had gotten to 12 before this year.  
cume   Week  drops   Wk mult  finish

10.70    2.12    55.0%    1.82    12.436
10.70    2.12    52.5%    1.90    12.620
10.70    2.12    50.0%    2.00    12.821
10.70    2.12    47.5%    2.11    13.045
10.70    2.12    45.0%    2.22    13.293
10.70    2.12    42.5%    2.35    13.570
10.70    2.12    40.0%    2.50    13.881
10.70    2.12    37.5%    2.67    14.235
10.70    2.12    35.0%    2.86    14.639

4th week drop is often worse or better or the same as 3rd week drop? (Based on previous movies)? 

And this weekend drop is 46.5%

[Steven]

which movie is the biggest third weekend in SK market?

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Just for kicks, getting 14k CGV PS and 105k day — Don’t take that too seriously here

Huh.    
 

It’s 15k, but I’ll still go for 105k here.

[pepsa]

3 hours ago, PKMLover said:

4th week drop is often worse or better or the same as 3rd week drop? (Based on previous movies)? 

And this weekend drop is 46.5%

The later in the run to more vulnerable movies are for new comes, so competition will be the biggest factor. So around 50% drop would be decently good. (Haven't checked the competition if it's small it could aim for 35-40% drop next week.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

The later in the run to more vulnerable movies are for new comes, so competition will be the biggest factor. So around 50% drop would be decently good. (Haven't checked the competition if it's small it could aim for 35-40% drop next week.

Jumanji opens this week but looks remarkably weak. 8k KOBIS at D-02    
 

Local 시동 (START-UP) opening the week after, 45k D-09. That might put a dent in, but F2 won’t need that many screens by then and looks like very different demos targeted.

[keysersoze123]

Even F1 had great 1st 4 weeks and then died fairly fast. Korea is different from Japan. It does not run for ever.

[pepsa]

30 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Jumanji opens this week but looks remarkably weak. 8k KOBIS at D-02    
 

Local 시동 (START-UP) opening the week after, 45k D-09. That might put a dent in, but F2 won’t need that many screens by then and looks like very different demos targeted.

I do think that if Start-Up goes to 250k in PS or more F2 will have a drop over 50%. But this week should be good with J2 doing poorly.

[Legion Again]

12 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I’ll still go for 105k here.

*squints*

*removes glasses*    
*sprays glasses*   
*scrubs glasses*

*puts glasses back on*   
 

Maybe more like 135k. People are walking up.

[charlie Jatinder]

Holidays Incoming.

[titanic2187]

Frozen 2 sing along will be here in my area starting next week, just nice for Christmas season, any news there in SK??

[Legion Again]

Seem like it will be about halfway between 105 and 135 in the end. Morning was nearly as good as last Mon, but the nights are starting to get really dead. With new pattern the next 3 days should be more dialed in. It’s still a solid drop in low 40s.