South Korea Box Office

[Legion Again]

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		START-UP South Korea	Dec 18, 2019	$1,534,547 ($1,857,351)	227,256 (280,746)	1,511	54.73%
2		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$523,552 ($88,066,645)	77,547 (12,334,230)	1,025	18.67%
3		Jumanji : The Next Level U.S.	Dec 11, 2019	$206,513 ($6,755,158)	30,939 (946,304)	793	7.36%
4		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$185,523 ($7,351,576)	26,106 (978,873)	607	6.61%
5		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$116,645 ($3,704,137)	16,460 (515,906)	362	4.16%
6		ASHFALL South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$61,485 ($62,964)	7,916 (8,163)	33	2.19%

Daily drops:

F2 -18.6%

J3 -44%

FvF -29%

KO -36%

Looks like losing some non-CGV screens to Start-up increased the CGV ratio a bit. Guess same happens today with Ashfall, will consider that in projection.  
 

F2 has 8641 CVS PS, considering everything I will project 55k, but it could go lower. Ashfall has 62k CGV PS, so it may go for a ballpark 450k OD here. 
 

Start-up 91% Egg, fine but I think it will be hurt by Ashfall and hold worse than F2 through holidays.   
 

KOBIS PS:

Ashfall Final 275k

Cats D-05 47.8k

Forbidden Dream keeps having sneaks, will resist it when we’re closer

[danhtruong5]

10 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		START-UP South Korea	Dec 18, 2019	$1,534,547 ($1,857,351)	227,256 (280,746)	1,511	54.73%
2		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$523,552 ($88,066,645)	77,547 (12,334,230)	1,025	18.67%
3		Jumanji : The Next Level U.S.	Dec 11, 2019	$206,513 ($6,755,158)	30,939 (946,304)	793	7.36%
4		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$185,523 ($7,351,576)	26,106 (978,873)	607	6.61%
5		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$116,645 ($3,704,137)	16,460 (515,906)	362	4.16%
6		ASHFALL South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$61,485 ($62,964)	7,916 (8,163)	33	2.19%

Daily drops:

F2 -18.6%

J3 -44%

FvF -29%

KO -36%

Looks like losing some non-CGV screens to Start-up increased the CGV ratio a bit. Guess same happens today with Ashfall, will consider that in projection.  
 

F2 has 8641 CVS PS, considering everything I will project 55k, but it could go lower. Ashfall has 62k CGV PS, so it may go for a ballpark 450k OD here. 
 

Start-up 91% Egg, fine but I think it will be hurt by Ashfall and hold worse than F2 through holidays.   
 

KOBIS PS:

Ashfall Final 275k

Cats D-05 47.8k

Forbidden Dream keeps having sneaks, will resist it when we’re closer

The first time more than 50% drop for weekday 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

The first time more than 50% drop for weekday 

Thursday Nov 28 was -52.6% weekly. Wed Dec 4 -70% weekly. Both special circumstances, and so is this.   

[Legion Again]

Not to be too self-congratulatory, but I feel like I’ve been nailing the 00:20 projections even on days where it’s a bit tricky 😎

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		ASHFALL South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$2,976,576 ($3,039,182)	440,729 (448,828)	1,966	63.38%
2		START-UP South Korea	Dec 18, 2019	$909,590 ($2,814,195)	132,424 (419,276)	1,133	19.36%
3		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$359,253 ($88,621,268)	53,321 (12,388,505)	790	7.64%
4		Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$146,829 ($170,308)	22,817 (26,016)	559	3.12%
5		Jumanji : The Next Level U.S.	Dec 11, 2019	$71,598 ($6,846,288)	11,364 (958,356)	477	1.52%
6		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$77,259 ($7,448,266)	11,163 (990,538)	329	1.64%
7		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$47,197 ($3,761,999)	6,630 (522,914)	158	1%
8		SORRY WE MISSED YOU France	Dec 19, 2019	$15,151 ($35,747)	2,470 (5,486)	66	0.32%
9		A Little Princess South Korea	Dec 04, 2019	$10,337 ($3,056,545)	1,865 (464,534)	59	0.22%

Final number low 54ks    
 

Now I know there is a certain crowd who will feel tempted to just look at a single number (the weekly %) and mash that  button, but this is a strong day for Frozen that gives me great confidence in passing 14M, and in my next post I’ll go into more detail about how to look at today and where things are likely headed from here. 

[pepsa]

Guys I feel worried..

[Legion Again]

36 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Guys I feel worried..

Nevermind guys. Pepsa has a a verylevel head, so if they are worried, we’re missing Avatar. Prepare to fall off a cliff 

 

Spoiler

Okay, the real post is here 😛 

 

There was over 600k of new business today from this week’s openers, and F2 weathered that pretty well. For instance here are today’s daily drops:  

F2 -31.5%  

Start-up -42% (from Wed OD, so a bit skewed)  

J3 -63.6% !  
FvF -57% !  
KO -59.5% !  
A Little Princess -64% !    
 

Things got gutted, but F2 has the right combination of PSA and WOM to take the smallest hit.   
 

Further skewing the weekly num is the fact that last Thursday was inexplicably really good. Let’s check out some holds vs 2 weeks ago:  

F2 Mon -59.4% (-36.3% avg weekly)

F2 Tues -50.8% (-29.85% avg weekly)

F2 Wed -55.7% (-33.45% avg weekly, despite Start-Up OD) 

F2 Thurs -66.6% (-42.2% avg weekly, despite Ashfall’s 450k OD!)

FvF Thurs -77% (-52% avg weekly despite 98% egg, because of Ashfall)

KO Thurs -76.5% (-51.5% avg weekly despite 97% egg, because of Ashfall)    
 

So, the day is good. Now let’s turn to the future. Ashfall has an 87% egg, not a disaster but also certainly not a holiday breakout in the making. SK may love Cats, never can tell for sure how things translate across cultures, but it is reputedly horrible. So there is a good chance imo that F2 will be the movie of the winter overall and hold really nicely over the next 2,3 weeks.   
 

CGV PS for Friday are 12k and my modeling+ a dash of conservatism is giving 82k, same Fri bump as last week. Start-up has just 15k PS, so F2 may close that gap even faster than I expected. Rough, rough guess atm is around 200k Sat, 170k Sun for 450k wknd and a 12.85M cume from a 760k week. That will take about 40% weekly drops to hit 14M, but with the worst of competition in the rear view mirror and next week start of break, I think more than that is achievable. 
 

Oh, KOBIS PS:

Cats D-04 68.6k

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Somoset]

Sounds like ASHFALL reviews/score isn't very good. 87% egg which is just above BATTLESHIP ISLAND.... Will START-UP have longer legs? 

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Somoset said:

Sounds like ASHFALL reviews/score isn't very good. 87% egg which is just above BATTLESHIP ISLAND.... Will START-UP have longer legs? 

Start-up Friday doesn’t look very good to me, or PS for Sat and beyond. Its reviews aren’t great either, just okay. If Cats scores 80s or below as seems likely, Frozen will reap the holiday bounty in my estimation.
 

F2 was 8.4% of F2+Start-up+Ashfall gross today (Start-up D2/Ashfall D1/ F2 D 29). My hunch is that that will rise to 33% shockingly fast.

[MrGlass2]

SK is not getting TROS this week because Disney wants to let F2 get all the money a little longer?

Edited December 19, 2019 by MrGlass2

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

SK is not getting TROS this week because Disney wants to let F2 get all the money a little longer?

TROS will make less total than Frozen’s 5th week. Disney maybe delayed it so that local competition didn’t squish it like a bug, but on the other hand that didn’t stop them in the equally hopeless China market, so 🤷‍♂️

Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Somoset]

2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TROS will make less total than Frozen’s 5th week. Disney maybe delayed it so that local competition didn’t squish it like a bug, but on the other hand that didn’t stop them in the equally hopeless China market, so 🤷‍♂️

TROS doesn't really have strong competition in China, South Korea did. Also the local titles in December have always steamrolled every Star Wars film. 

[PKMLover]

@Arendelle Legion Any update for F2 at midday Firday? Can it survive?  

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

@Arendelle Legion Any update for F2 at midday Firday? Can it survive?  

Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping.

[PKMLover]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping.

When will the holiday start in SK? from next monday? the whole next 2 weeks? 

[druv10]

9 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Friday looks really weak, maybe 73k? I’m waiting for Sat before readjusting stuff much, but might need to lean more on holidays than I was hoping.

I wouldn't worry too much about Friday. Presales are over 86K which is fantastic news for Saturday and Sunday. It's going to be near 12.8M after Sunday. I'm almost tempted to say lock for 14M admissions but I won't, with NY's holidays coming 75%+ chance, its first Hollywood release to hit that milestone. Out of this world performance!!!

[Legion Again]

52 minutes ago, druv10 said:

I wouldn't worry too much about Friday. Presales are over 86K which is fantastic news for Saturday and Sunday. It's going to be near 12.8M after Sunday. I'm almost tempted to say lock for 14M admissions but I won't, with NY's holidays coming 75%+ chance, its first Hollywood release to hit that milestone. Out of this world performance!!!

Friday is quite awful at around 69k, +28% bump from the deflated Thurs. Sat looks even worse with 31k CGV PS leading to perhaps 145k admits, though I hope walkups beat that forecast by a lot. Seems like whole weekend is going to suffer from the competition and be down low 60%     
 

The silver lining is that with not that much of the presales going to Sat+Sun after all, they must be for the holiday weekdays instead — gotta go somewhere. Cats is coming out Tuesday and has 100k PS sales, but as long as it bombs in reception I still expect frozen to have a great next week.

[danhtruong5]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Friday is quite awful at around 69k, +28% bump from the deflated Thurs. Sat looks even worse with 31k CGV PS leading to perhaps 145k admits, though I hope walkups beat that forecast by a lot. Seems like whole weekend is going to suffer from the competition and be down low 60%     
 

The silver lining is that with not that much of the presales going to Sat+Sun after all, they must be for the holiday weekdays instead — gotta go somewhere. Cats is coming out Tuesday and has 100k PS sales, but as long as it bombs in reception I still expect frozen to have a great next week.

When will the holiday start there? From next monday?

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

When will the holiday start there? From next monday?

Yep

[misafeco]

I work for a Korean company since March, I have very good work relationship with a couple of them. Our advisor is a great guy, sadly he goes back home after he spent 1 year here. A very interesting culture too, I don't like their food though. At least what we can get in the canteen for lunch. 

[TalismanRing]

Dec 20, 2019

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		ASHFALL South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$3,149,609 ($6,269,739)	424,845 (883,159)	1,934	57.67%
2		START-UP South Korea	Dec 18, 2019	$1,232,561 ($4,086,360)	164,604 (587,725)	1,102	22.57%
3		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$510,133 ($89,516,768)	68,617 (12,457,645)	775	9.34%
4		Sin-bi-a-pa-teu Geuk-jang-pan Ha-neul-do-ggae-bi Dae Yo-reu-mun-gan-deu South Korea	Dec 19, 2019	$130,351 ($301,334)	18,713 (44,718)	562	2.38%
5		FORD v FERRARI U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$132,646 ($7,615,514)	16,824 (1,007,732)	321	2.42%
6		Jumanji : The Next Level U.S.	Dec 11, 2019	$104,917 ($6,981,762)	14,869 (973,368)	495	1.92%
7		KNIVES OUT U.S.	Dec 04, 2019	$74,441 ($3,854,053)	9,619 (532,734)	165	1.36%
8		SORRY WE MISSED YOU France	Dec 19, 2019	$13,199 ($50,588)	1,970 (7,703)	66	0.24%
9		A Little Princess South Korea	Dec 04, 2019	$8,318 ($3,078,657)	1,425 (466,063)	46	0.15%
10		Asterix: The Secret of the Magic Potion France	Dec 12, 2019	$5,448 ($58,544)	1,201 (10,696)	25	0.09%
11		Countdown U.S.	Dec 12, 2019	$8,044 ($501,524)	1,094 (70,150)	68	0.14%
12		COLD WAR Poland	Feb 07, 2019	$6,252 ($198,679)	766 (27,829)	2	0.11%
13		The Queen's Corgi Belgium	Dec 24, 2019	$5,867 ($16,451)	756 (2,940)	4	0.1%
14		The Truth France	Dec 05, 2019	$4,510 ($194,482)	736 (30,492)	40	0.08%
15		Last Christmas U.S.	Dec 05, 2019	$5,274 ($1,744,092)	709 (245,333)	35	0.09%
16		Forbidden Dream South Korea	Dec 26, 2019	$4,486 ($68,239)	651 (13,577)	3	0.08%
17		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$3,413 ($17,964,177)	543 (2,477,696)	11	0.06%
18		Moonlit Winter South Korea	Nov 14, 2019	$3,444 ($770,255)	493 (112,416)	27	0.06%
19		Jeronimo South Korea,U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$3,176 ($83,411)	478 (12,706)	4	0.05%
19		The Two Popes U.S.,Argentina,U.K.,...	Dec 11, 2019	$3,357 ($57,934)	478 (8,896)	16	0.06%