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Is there any films this year that have the chance of hitting like 8m admissions?

Among local films <My brilliant life> has the highest potential. It is being released next month. Tazza 2 also if it can build on the 6.8 million of the original.Among foreign releases, Interstellar maybe has the best chance of a breakout but even then it's an outside chance at best. Other foreign releases to look out for include lucy (includes Choi min-sik from roaring currents) and the battle of the 5 armies.
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Several reasons for Roaring Currents' record breaking run

    [*]Summer weekdays/weekends [*]2nd highest number of screens of all time and high seat saturation to match. [*]Event feel to the film. For better or for worse, most Koreans are extremely patriotic (or at least want to be perceived as such) and right now there's a general feeling that if you're a Korean you must watch the film. Even the President has watched it.  [*]The country is in political turmoil with many people distrustful of the current regime and government system causing them to seek the leadership qualities that Yi Sun-sin possesses.  [*]Relationship with Japan is at an all time low. [*]Yi sun-sin is a foremost figure in Korean history and highly respected too.  [*]The weather sucks. For a while it was too hot which caused people to seek the cool cinemas. Then there was the typhoon which prevented people from taking vacations and go to the cinemas as an alternative.

The film isn't without it's detractors though with several critics criticizing roaring currents as "trash" that relies on the popularity of Yi sun-sin for it's success. So far though, it's not having much of an effect of the number of people that are going to see it. 

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Several reasons for Roaring Currents' record breaking run

    [*]Summer weekdays/weekends

    [*]2nd highest number of screens of all time and high seat saturation to match.

    [*]Event feel to the film. For better or for worse, most Koreans are extremely patriotic (or at least want to be perceived as such) and right now there's a general feeling that if you're a Korean you must watch the film. Even the President has watched it. 

    [*]The country is in political turmoil with many people distrustful of the current regime and government system causing them to seek the leadership qualities that Yi Sun-sin possesses. 

    [*]Relationship with Japan is at an all time low.

    [*]Yi sun-sin is a foremost figure in Korean history and highly respected too. 

    [*]The weather sucks. For a while it was too hot which caused people to seek the cool cinemas. Then there was the typhoon which prevented people from taking vacations and go to the cinemas as an alternative.

The film isn't without it's detractors though with several critics criticizing roaring currents as "trash" that relies on the popularity of Yi sun-sin for it's success. So far though, it's not having much of an effect of the number of people that are going to see it.

Do you imagine sewol had any effect on the box office considering the bodies of water for each event are so close and similar maybe people were happy to watch s positive sorry centered around that part of the coast?
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If I was a gambling man, I would say that Roaring Currents is winning. Lee sun-shin + Choi Min-sik just screams to me 'King and  the Clown' or Masquerade level interest. It may not get anywhere near that sort of gross, but if anything is breaking 10M I would go for that one. Will be very interesting to see if a Bong joon-ho produced film has anything in common with his directed films or whether its just some added name recognition for somebody he has worked with in the past. (It helps that memories of Murder had a pretty good screen play so this may well do too.) Kundo has the advantage of coming first and Apes will be in its second week (and Transformers will already be long dead). So I think Pirates is in the biggest danger of being the one that dies, but we shall see. As for the 3 Hollywood films... Apes will do well in its opening week and if its good will remain strong for a couple of weeks. Dragon is animated and so shouldn;t be affected/have too much affect. Guardians is the biggest danger of bombing, it will all depend on how much it gets associated with Marvel, Avengers and Ironman amongst the general Audience. If the connection isn't clear, it may not reach 1 million.

Don't think those predictions turned out too bad :)
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Do you imagine sewol had any effect on the box office considering the bodies of water for each event are so close and similar maybe people were happy to watch s positive sorry centered around that part of the coast?

 

There was a news article about that but it was more about how the sewol disaster would negatively affect Roaring currents since the common theme is people dying in water. As it is I don't think it affected the box office results to a huge degree. 

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Before release, what was the predicted range for Roaring Currents? Should be like 2x over that range already.

 

It's pretty hard to predict local film box office results before release because so much depends on the kind of word of mouth it generates. Opening week mostly depends on the theme, actors and to an extent directors, but the legs after that rely heavily on word of mouth. We already saw what happened to Kundo (died after just 2 weeks), but it had a huge Opening week. If it had positive word of mouth it could have gone much much higher. Same with roaring currents, no matter how popular Yi sun-sin may be if the movie was crap like Kundo, then no way could it have done as well as it has. 

 

From a studios perspective, they mostly want the film to generate a profit or at least break even, which is probably the bottom line of their perceived range. Anything over that is, as they say, gravy. From this viewpoint, Kundo has failed to break even (it needed 5.5 million admissions) and Roaring currents started making profit after 6 million admissions. The pirates needs 4.75 million admissions to break even. 

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South Korea Daily Box Office (August 10)

-Admissions (Adm total)   Gross (weekly %) [sc] Title

01. 1,019,853 (10,773,811) $7.89m (-18.6%) [1,301] <Roaring currents>
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02.     463,436  (1,799,381) $3.52m      (--)       [822] <The Pirates>
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03.       88,352  (2,689,532) $0.70m (-55.8%)   [408] <How to train your Dragon 2>
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04.       60,603  (1,032,980) $546K   (-62.6%)  [322] <guardians of the Galaxy>
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05.       56,504     (290,218) $390K       (--)       [297] <Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper>
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06.       19,473  (4,738,405) $146K   (-88.6%)  [195] <Kundo: Age of the Rampant>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
07.       14,190       (68,414) $110K       (--)       [240] <Hercules>
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08.         5,184       (78,458) $43K      (-7.5%)     [42] <Atilla Marcel>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
09.         3,602       (14,921) $25K         (--)         [88] <T-Pang rescue>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.         2,684     (103,286) $19K    (-82.9%)     [42] <Free Birds>


Total admissions: 1,742,677
Total Gross: $13.406 million

Roaring Currents Cume: $79.951 million
Kundo: Age of the Rampant cume: $35.329 million
How to train your dragon 2 cume: $20.931 million
Guardians of the Galaxy cume: $8.387 million

Current Presales (midnight local time)
Roaring Currents 55.6% (131,183)
The Pirates 16.3% (38,389)
Sea fog 8.3% (19,491)
How to train your dragon 2 4.6% (10,777)
Guardians of the galaxy 3.6% (8,474)

Edited by Rsyu
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Biggest single day admissions

01. 1,253,621 <Roaring Currents>

02. 1,228,955 <Roaring Currents>

03. 1,095,324 <Roaring Currents>

04. 1,018,881 <Roaring Currents>

05.    989,834 <Roaring Currents>

06.    956,500 <Transformers: Dark of the moon>

07.    942,277 <Transformers: Dark of the moon>

08.    919,010 <Secretly, Greatly>

09.    894,377 <Iron Man 3>

10.    870,279 <Kundo: Age of the Rampant>

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2014 Top 10 films

Rank-admissions-Gross-Title

01. 10,773,438 - $79.91 million Roaring currents

02. 10,295,483 - $76.93 million Frozen

03.   8,656,417 - $58.26 million Miss Granny

04.   5,295,937 - $43.34 million Transformers: Age of extinction

05.   4,738,495 - $35.30 million Kundo: Age of the rampant

06.   4,697,004 - $37.84 million Edge of Tomorrow

07.   4,313,446 - $33.72 million X-men: Days of future past

08.   4,164,946 - $33.80 million The Amazing Spider-man 2

09.   4,001,008 - $30.73 million Dawn of the planet of the apes

10.   3,962,812 - $30.18 million Captain America: The winter Soldier

10.   3,849,300 - $29.04 million The Fatal Encounter

Edited by Rsyu
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