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Shawn Robbins

The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

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Rival studios have been pushing the $150m tracking for awhile now. It's not really new.

In my experience rival studios are correct more often than not. eg., WB is saying 150 for TDKR while rival studios are saying 170+.
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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

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Someone should email Ray and either get BOM to fix that number or clarify how they got it. I trust JarJar -- no reason to have the wrong info keep getting posting.

I think BOM has it wrong. LA Times also mentioned $59.2 million as its total gross while BOM has it at 58.35.
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filmscholar Blockbuster

filmscholar

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Bleurgh.. I'm so confused by everything right now.

Reboots:

Batman Begins 1st 2 days: 24 Million (Non-3D)

Superman Returns 1st 2 days: 32 Million (Non-3D)

The Amazing Spider-man's 1st 2 days: 59 Million (3D)

Begins Adjusted: $253,716,500

Returns Adjusted: $241,930,200

These two are the bar for me as they both are in similar situations as being Reboots of a comic book hero after 5 or more years where the last film wasn't received well. Other July 4th comparisons:

TF1 after 2 days: 65 Million (Non-3D)

TF3 after 2 days: 64 Million (3D)

Spidey 2 after 2 days: 64 Million (Non-3D)

Edited by filmscholar
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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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Spider-Man would have to pretty much match Transformers from here on out to get to $150m. Not impossible if July 4th was indeed deflated for it compared to TF, but it seems unlikely at this point.

Yeah, I'm being optimistic, and I have it at around 142M.
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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

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This thread is all WIN!!I don't care what it does today, there's no way it's doing 150m 6-day. Should land between 130-135m.

Just watch -- it'll (amazingly!) stay flat today, then (against all odds) fall from Thursday-Friday.Sony, I'm watching you.
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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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Just out of interest, what would be considered a 'good' 6-day gross? Enough that it could be called a success.

I guess it depends on the context. Anything over $100m would technically be considered successful in terms of its ability to remain significantly profitable at the worldwide box office. (Maybe even less, just doing very rough math in my head.)

What if it only does $120-125m or so for the 6 day? We can't rule that out yet after the 4th drop. Then a 1.8x multi would only put it finishing between $216-225m.

True. Not ruling it out, but I think its easy to over-correct on extrapolating when numbers are shifting as much as they are right now. If WOM is fine, it stabilizes. If it isn't, the drops worsen and it tops out at $220m. (Personally, I doubt that happens but wouldn't mind if it did -- that's basically what I was predicting before Tuesday.) :P

Do you have a link for this?

He works for Boxoffice too.

OK I said when they lied about SM3 that nothing could ever top Puerto Rico, but the continued shenanigans this week have convinced me that it IS possible to top Puerto Rico. What an absolute clusterfuck. Good job Sony. :lol:

Amen.

Rival studios have been pushing the $150m tracking for awhile now. It's not really new.

Naturally -- they all smell blood in the water, and have for months. The more they can convince the industry it was "supposed" to do $150m in six days, the more they gloat about it against Sony when it doesn't.

Dear Nikki is going to have a field day with this. I'd love to hear Brandon's thoughts on these shenanigans if he were still around, but he's probably retired and sitting on a beach in Acapulco sipping on a martini.

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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

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The only thing that hurts this situation compared to the Legend of Puerto Rico is Brandon's eloquent asterisk at the bottom of his TF2 report. That shit right there said it all so very well. Ray isn't witty enough to do that IMHO.

We'll just have to have Shawn convince Phil and the other guys here at BO.com to do the same thing. :P
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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This gets me every time:

Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference.

I love how he didn't even want to state it like it was a fact. "Paramount reported," aka Paramount bullshitted their asses off. :lol:
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tawasal Global Phenomenon

tawasal

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TASM is looking at 129m for the 6 day if it follows TF1 from now on, meaning that it drops 34% on thursday and with +18% on friday, +13-14% on saturday and 12-15% drop on sunday. That will give it around 56m to 57m 3-day gross.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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TASM is looking at 129m for the 6 day if it follows TF1 from now on, meaning that it drops 34% on thursday and with +18% on friday, +13-14% on saturday and 12-15% drop on sunday.That will give it around 56m to 57m 3-day gross.

I think that's a very good indicator of where it's headed for the 6 day.
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tawasal Global Phenomenon

tawasal

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I think that's a very good indicator of where it's headed for the 6 day.

The harsh drop from wednesday could play in it's advantage on thursday, meaning that it could drop less than TF1 did on thursday.
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