Iron Man 3 OS thread ($803,300,000)

[catlover]

The Avengers really changed the game for Marvel movies, and in turn, messed up our predictions, both domestically and internationally. Without TA, IM3 overseas should play by sequel rule, it has to increase, and 3D will obviously help. But factoring in TA, and no one knows how big the effect will be 

 

I think one thing for sure is that it will do considerably very well in South America. TA is such a beast there that I have a hard time seeing anything but big increase for IM3 over there. Other regions I have no idea what to expect, except maybe The Philippines where it's guaranteed to be big also. 

And Indonesia. It will be huge here too. TA is by far the highest grossing movie of all time with almost $12m (previous record was HP7 part 2 with $8.2m). IM2 "only" made $4.5m, but thanks to the success of TA, I believe IM3 could double it, maybe even close to TA's number. Everybody is talking about it. People are saying they can't wait to see the movie. It's the most anticipated movie of the year.

[Olive]

^Glad to know.

[Sam]

I agree with you but i don't think FF6, Hangover III or Trek2 are of any competion for IM3 on the foreign front since it has the best configuration of all 4 movies in terms of date of release.

 

IM3 is released two whole weeks before Trek2, the lesser competition which is released in Russia, english spoken countries and a dozen of little countries. FF6 and Hangover that are both more popular than Trek2 are both released a whole month after IM3.

 

I beleive Trek2, FF6 and Hangover will be the ones to suffer more of the competition between each other because they will be released at the same time in the foreign front (for the rest of the OS market for Trek 2 including Asia, South America and Europe minus the UK). 

 

The overlaping between those three will increase the advantage of IM3 abroad to generate maximum cash without too much competition.

Ah, thanks for the info. I didn't check for all IM3 release dates overseas. I know that it'll be released early in some place but I didn't know that its release dates are kinda distant from FF6 and TH3.

 

Well, if so, Trek2 is the only "direct" competition. I know that Trek is not a big property overseas, but the trailer makes it look like it'll be a big action blockbuster that can achieve more success internationally. I see it as a big wildcard right now.

[Tower]

Iron Man will have as weak of a competition as you could reasonably expect during the summer(ish) season.

[Sam]

Not as weak as what TA faced last year though 

 

Being the first true blockbuster of the year will definitely help. If it can open big then weaker legs might not be as damaging. 

 

And Indonesia. It will be huge here too. TA is by far the highest grossing movie of all time with almost $12m (previous record was HP7 part 2 with $8.2m). IM2 "only" made $4.5m, but thanks to the success of TA, I believe IM3 could double it, maybe even close to TA's number. Everybody is talking about it. People are saying they can't wait to see the movie. It's the most anticipated movie of the year.

Thank you for the info. That is great news  Do you see interest for Thor 2 as well? Maybe it's a bit early I guess. Has superheroes movies been big in your country?

 

Let's see, IM3 should do well in South America, The Philippines, Indonesia; good in China, Russia; relatively good in France, UK, Australia; and okay in Japan, South Korea. I think that's all I can guess for now. 500M sounds good to me, anything more and I'm a happy happy fan 

[Tower]

Not as weak as what TA faced last year though 

 

I actually think It's pretty similar, by the time FF6 Hangover open this will have made almost all of its money anyway, and the rest isn't stronger than the assortment of Battleship, American Pie, dark Shadows and the like that Avengers had.

[Sam]

I actually think It's pretty similar, by the time FF6 Hangover open this will have made almost all of its money anyway, and the rest isn't stronger than the assortment of Battleship, American Pie, dark Shadows and the like that Avengers had.

True true! So the important factor here is quality then. If IM3 is good, then it should be big   Cause IMO, TA faced weak competitions not only in terms of box office potential but in qualities as well. Has Battleship, Dark Shadows been good, then it would be more of a "competition". This is evidently seen domestically as well. 

 

So did Marvel get lucky with TA last year or was it smart scheduling/strategy?   One thing for sure though, it's only beneficial from now on cause in 2015, no movies will come anywhere close to TA2's release dates if they're smart, especially tentpoles or big budget movies like Battleship even.

Edited April 3, 2013 by Sam

[iceroll]

IM3 doesn't have the advantage of opening to such an open OS market as The Avengers, last year there weren't any OS hits until The Avengers and I don't think a single 2012 movie made more than 150m OS by the time The Avengers opened.

 

This time around, you have A Good Day to Die Hard, The Croods, Oz, GI Joe and maybe Oblivion all making ~250m OS when IM3 opens.

[Tower]

IM3 doesn't have the advantage of opening to such an open OS market as The Avengers, last year there weren't any OS hits until The Avengers and I don't think a single 2012 movie made more than 150m OS by the time The Avengers opened.

 

This time around, you have A Good Day to Die Hard, The Croods, Oz, GI Joe and maybe Oblivion all making ~250m OS when IM3 opens.

 

This isn't even remotely true, Journey 2, WOTT, Titanic 3D, John Carter, Hunger Games and American Reunion all made more than 150M. This is without counting Intouchables which was making masses of money during this time from certain markets.

[iceroll]

This isn't even remotely true, Journey 2, WOTT, Titanic 3D, John Carter, Hunger Games and American Reunion all made more than 150M. This is without counting Intouchables which was making masses of money during this time from certain markets.

Oh whoops I was reading the "As of" date instead of the "Release" date on BOM.  Still, 2013 has done a lot more pre-May business than 2012, especially when you add the Oscar movies Django Unchained, Les Miserables and Life of Pi.

[catlover]

Thank you for the info. That is great news  Do you see interest for Thor 2 as well? Maybe it's a bit early I guess. Has superheroes movies been big in your country?

Yes, superhero movies have always been big in my country. TA is #1 movie of all time, TASM is #2, and TDKR is #4. All of other Spider-Man movies have always been the biggest in each year. We love anything with a lot of actions and special effects.

 

I can't say anything about Thor 2 though. We can't really see the hype for movies here until at least one month before the release date. Sometimes as late as one week or even one day before. Also, the first movie was released in the year where most Hollywood movies were banned here (2011). The ban lasted for almost six months, and we missed most of summer movies that year. Thank God they lifted the ban just in time for the release of HP7 part 2 and TF3.

[Olive]

Bump!!!

[lab276]

It should be fairly successful.

[fmpro]

I see no less than 500 mill

[Fullbuster]

France : 32m

UK : 55m

China : 120m

Russia : 35m

South Korea : 35m

Japan : 33m

Brazil : 40m

Mexico : 35m

Germany : 25m

Spain : 17m

 

TOTAL OS : 650m

Edited April 22, 2013 by Iron Fullbuster

[Heretic]

I doubt it'll do $120m from China... Or even $100m.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I doubt too.

[Fullbuster]

I doubt it'll do $120m from China... Or even $100m.

 

The Avengers grossed $92m there, with the inflation, the growth of admissions, the Chinese stars, the great ad campaign...$100m fingers in the nose

[Sam]

I think you're being way too optimistic with the China's number, Fullbuster IM3 doesn't even have a release date yet, and trust me, Firedeep is right when he said So Young could be serious competition that can hurt IM3

[Fullbuster]

I think you're being way too optimistic with the China's number, Fullbuster IM3 doesn't even have a release date yet, and trust me, Firedeep is right when he said So Young could be serious competition that can hurt IM3

 

I would be disappointed to see it under $100m, that would mean this market isn't as big as we're told it is...And another disappointment :/