Iron Man 3 OS thread ($803,300,000)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

lol its a bit crazy and that be around a 280 million increase in overseas lol.

"Only" 31% increase, in other words ...

[Lordmandeep]

Well TA 2 could decrease in the UK I think but I think it should increase in everything single market from TA

[ecstasy]

LMAO we can't even get a title update for the thread. SMH

[druv10]

LMAO we can't even get a title update for the thread. SMH

 

CJohn's failing us.  

[peludo]

Maybe 600M (excluding AU), double that of TA.

 

Ridiculous. Not happening.

I do not see so ridiculous. IM3 is outgrossing TA in every Asian market just one year later when it is "just" a solo movie. With 2 years more of expansion and a decent quality in upcoming Thor 2, CA2 and Guardians of the Galaxy, sky is the limit for this sequel. I could see TA2 approaching TF3 in China (or going even higher, maybe 200) with a good release date, menacing 100 million in South Korea, and reaching or bordering 20-25 million in many countries like Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India. And then you have to add Japan. I think 500 in these countries is locked and 600 is not out of range.

 

And of course, TA2 OS will be higher than TDKR WW. I have few doubts about it. It "just" have to increase 200 million from first part in 3 years. Even a movie with less appealing in expanding markets like TDKR did it.

[Olive]

I do not see so ridiculous. IM3 is outgrossing TA in every Asian market just one year later when it is "just" a solo movie. With 2 years more of expansion and a decent quality in upcoming Thor 2, CA2 and Guardians of the Galaxy, sky is the limit for this sequel. I could see TA2 approaching TF3 in China (or going even higher, maybe 200) with a good release date, menacing 100 million in South Korea, and reaching or bordering 20-25 million in many countries like Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India. And then you have to add Japan. I think 500 in these countries is locked and 600 is not out of range.

 

And of course, TA2 OS will be higher than TDKR WW. I have few doubts about it. It "just" have to increase 200 million from first part in 3 years. Even a movie with less appealing in expanding markets like TDKR did it.

well said,100% agreed.

[Olive]

I'm thinking 1.2B OS+550M DOM for TA2.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I do not see so ridiculous. IM3 is outgrossing TA in every Asian market just one year later when it is "just" a solo movie. With 2 years more of expansion and a decent quality in upcoming Thor 2, CA2 and Guardians of the Galaxy, sky is the limit for this sequel. I could see TA2 approaching TF3 in China (or going even higher, maybe 200) with a good release date, menacing 100 million in South Korea, and reaching or bordering 20-25 million in many countries like Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India. And then you have to add Japan. I think 500 in these countries is locked and 600 is not out of range.

 

And of course, TA2 OS will be higher than TDKR WW. I have few doubts about it. It "just" have to increase 200 million from first part in 3 years. Even a movie with less appealing in expanding markets like TDKR did it.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I'm thinking 1.2B OS+550M DOM for TA2.

good call

[Bluebomb]

I do not see so ridiculous. IM3 is outgrossing TA in every Asian market just one year later when it is "just" a solo movie. With 2 years more of expansion and a decent quality in upcoming Thor 2, CA2 and Guardians of the Galaxy, sky is the limit for this sequel. I could see TA2 approaching TF3 in China (or going even higher, maybe 200) with a good release date, menacing 100 million in South Korea, and reaching or bordering 20-25 million in many countries like Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India. And then you have to add Japan. I think 500 in these countries is locked and 600 is not out of range.

 

And of course, TA2 OS will be higher than TDKR WW. I have few doubts about it. It "just" have to increase 200 million from first part in 3 years. Even a movie with less appealing in expanding markets like TDKR did it.

These predictions about The Avengers 2's Asian gross are greatly overestimated.

 

The Avengers 2 won't reach or border 20-25m in HK and definitely not in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and India. 20m might happen in Philippines and Indonesia if they expand quickly because those 2 markets are untapped and have not reached saturation point.

 

The rest have all reached saturation and they aren't likely to make much more than IM3 2 years from now. The extra films won't raise The Avengers 2's profile by that much since the characters are already established. Also, The Avengers brought the team together for the first time and people wanted to see what that was like. There won't be any curiosity factor with The Avengers 2.

 

As for the bigger markets, there's still a lot to explore in China so 200m might happen with ease. South Korea will top out with 75m. I don't see it chasing 100m. Taiwan will probably do around 25-30m.

 

My guesses

 

China - 200m

South Korea - 75m

Japan - 50m

Taiwan - 25m

Philippines - 19m

Indonesia - 18m

Malaysia - 17m

Hong Kong - 16mIndia - 15m

Singapore - 13m

Thailand - 11m

Total - 459m

[peludo]

^^OK. I have been very optimistic with some territories, but after analyzing data and seeing the rise from TA in Indonesia and Malaysia, and the level in Philippines, I think these 3 markets will reach 20 million. Agreed with the rest, excepting South Korea. Maybe 100 is too high but I see it in 80-90 range.

 

Said that, I think Oliverdeep's bet is quite accurate. I see a lower gross in US and a big rise in OS. I consider 1.2 billion a "nearly" safe bet. If the movie has a similar quality than first, it will go higher than that. It still has a room growth in Europe.

[wileECoyote]

I'm thinking 1.2B OS+550M DOM for TA2.

I like them numbers.

[Ent]

I think the discrepancy between AVATAR's os gross and any other juggernaut os gross has taught us how potentially extensive the OS market can be and that our own ideas of hitting a roof can be below what we even consider possible.

 

Nobody can predict how far TA2 can go.  But if TA did reach $900 million in 2012 and AVATAR reached $2 billion in 2008 in overseas markets, technically TA2 can gross to $1.3+ billion os in 2015. 

 

Not saying that it will do it but AVATAR showed us that any juggernaut has definitely room to expand beyond expectations since AVATAR is the proof of what extreme level a movie gross could potentially reach in that market.  The fact that it did it at a time where we were barely talking about expanding markets, 7 years before TA2 will be released reinforce that sentiment..

Edited June 5, 2013 by Ent

[catlover]

Nobody can predict how far TA2 can go.  But if TA did reach $900 million in 2012 and AVATAR reached $2 billion in 2008 in overseas markets, technically TA2 can gross to $1.3+ billion os in 2015. 

 

Not saying that it will do it but AVATAR showed us that any juggernaut has definitely room to expand beyond expectations since AVATAR is the proof of what extreme level a movie gross could potentially reach in that market.  The fact that it did it at a time where we were barely talking about expanding markets, 7 years before TA2 will be released reinforce that sentiment..

 

Actually Avatar did that in 2009-10. That was the exact year when the market started to grow quickly here. So at least in my country, Avatar was already in the era when the market was expanding. But yeah, the potential is there.

Edited June 6, 2013 by catlover

[Bluebomb]

I think the discrepancy between AVATAR's os gross and any other juggernaut os gross has taught us how potentially extensive the OS market can be and that our own ideas of hitting a roof can be below what we even consider possible.

 

Nobody can predict how far TA2 can go.  But if TA did reach $900 million in 2012 and AVATAR reached $2 billion in 2008 in overseas markets, technically TA2 can gross to $1.3+ billion os in 2015. 

 

Not saying that it will do it but AVATAR showed us that any juggernaut has definitely room to expand beyond expectations since AVATAR is the proof of what extreme level a movie gross could potentially reach in that market.  The fact that it did it at a time where we were barely talking about expanding markets, 7 years before TA2 will be released reinforce that sentiment..

I think superhero films, in general, are popular but they aren't a worldwide phenomenon like an Avatar or Titanic. For some reason, a small percentage do not like superhero films and that's why I'm more pessimistic on TA2's prospects.

 

I think it will make 1.1-1.15b OS with a chance at 1.2b.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Bluebomb

[Juby]

$803,300,000

[A Marvel Fanboy]

finally

[Heretic]

 

 

IronMan3 broke $800M intl mark this wknd. $802.3M + $394.3M dom for just under $1.2B. #5 global blockbuster of all-time.

[fmpro]

Welcome to greatness IM3

[Leyla]

congrats