Weekend EST- IA4 45.5M; TASM 35M(-44%); Ted 22.1M; Brave 10.7M; MM 9M

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I don't understand the Hellboy II comparison. The first HB had a 2.57 multiplier after OW. A 2.2 multi was not exactly unexpected, regardless of TDK. Look at the multiplier drops for X1(2.9) to X2(2.5) and FF1(2.8) to FF2(2.3). Think how much the multiplier would have dropped for SM2 from SM1 had it opened on Friday. Looking at opening week multipliers it dropped to 1.94 from 2.66 for SM1(different times of year, I know). But a drop was inevitable, regardless of how much better HB2 may have been than HB1.

[Sims]

Fantastic numbers for Ted and Moonrise Kingdom. They really ought to expand the latter further.

[Samson]

I don't understand the Hellboy II comparison.

Sequel.Comic Book Movie.Same Demographics.And the kicker...$34 million weekend before the release of a Nolan Batman film.We aren't talking multipliers here. We're talking about drops. Hellboy 2 gives us a flawless look into the coming weeks for TASM.

[Dragon]

Magic Mike Might Hit 100 Mil next week.

[Shawn Robbins]

Sequel.Comic Book Movie.Same Demographics.And the kicker...$34 million weekend before the release of a Nolan Batman film.We aren't talking multipliers here. We're talking about drops. Hellboy 2 gives us a flawless look into the coming weeks for TASM.

I see what you're getting at and the coincidence of the similar pre-Dark Knight weekend numbers is very intriguing... but Hellboy was coming off its already front-loaded opening. TASM's second weekend can't be considered front-loaded, so even with the huge hit it will take from TDKR I'm not sure it will drop anything like 70+%. Maybe 65%, though.

[TLK]

Sequel.Comic Book Movie.Same Demographics.And the kicker...$34 million weekend before the release of a Nolan Batman film.We aren't talking multipliers here. We're talking about drops. Hellboy 2 gives us a flawless look into the coming weeks for TASM.

Nope. Hancock is a better comparison. Hellboy is a purely fanboy movie with little appeal to anyone else TASM appeals to women, tweens and other demographics. Hancock made 50 million while playing parallel to TDK. TASM has four years of inflation, 3D and better WOM so I am expecting 55-60 million peformance.200+16+55=271

[Claire of Themyscira]

Not with 8% drops it isn't. At this rate it might stay in theaters long enough to pass TS3!

That's what I want, but I want it in the dollar theater in my town! :c A lot of my friends and family haven't seen it! So I needs to take them! Plus, as a fan, I made a promise to see it at least ten times. P: I've only watched it three times. D:

[Samson]

Maybe 65%, though.

Agreed, 65% makes perfect sense. Spider-Man is a bigger brand, no question, and TASM was better received if the RT user score is anything to go off of (HB2: 70%, TASM 84%). TASM is also working off more theaters and 3D. It has an edge.

[Shawn Robbins]

Nope. Hancock is a better comparison. Hellboy is a purely fanboy movie with little appeal to anyone else TASM appeals to women, tweens and other demographics. Hancock made 50 million while playing parallel to TDK. TASM has four years of inflation, 3D and better WOM so I am expecting 55-60 million peformance.200+16+55=271

Reasonable projection, IMO.

[Sims]

Hellboy II and TASM have pretty comparable WOM IMO.

[Samson]

Nope. Hancock is a better comparison. Hellboy is a purely fanboy movie with little appeal to anyone else TASM appeals to women, tweens and other demographics. Hancock made 50 million while playing parallel to TDK. TASM has four years of inflation, 3D and better WOM so I am expecting 55-60 million peformance.200+16+55=271

This is good projecting too!Hancock having it's 4th of July land of its 1st Friday makes for some problems, but nothing major. The weekends so far have looked eerily similar.TASM is running $35 million ahead of Hancock right now. If it can maintain that gap, a $263 million+ closing is in the works.

[Poseidon]

Someone metioned "The Avengers" bigger drops when Spider-Man openend? It's obvious, isn't it? Both are more of a family movie, than Batman is going to be and that's the reason why i wouldn't be surprised by a sub 55% drop next weekend.Transformers 3 did it last year when Potter 7.2 opened and it even had a considerably bigger drop than Spider Man on 2nd weekend (against Horrible Bosses and The Zookeeper, combined making pretty much what Ice Age 4 did this weekend).And if i'm not mistaken, Transformers also lost its IMAX-screens to Potter 7-2, so everything is possible, well not everything. A drop as Hellboy 2's isn't going to happen...Oh, and Ted's BO-performance is a pleasure to follow, isn't it? It just continues 2011s amazing summer comedy run, as if "The Dictator" and "That's my Boy" never happend. Hopefully that's good news for "The Watch"...

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I see what you're getting at and the coincidence of the similar pre-Dark Knight weekend numbers is very intriguing... but Hellboy was coming off its already front-loaded opening. TASM's second weekend can't be considered front-loaded, so even with the huge hit it will take from TDKR I'm not sure it will drop anything like 70+%. Maybe 65%, though.

Exactly. If anything, the fact that TASM is so close to HB2's OW gross on its second weekend after a Tues opening, proves it will not drop 70%.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Hellboy II and TASM have pretty comparable WOM IMO.

And you base that opinion on _______ ?

[CJohn]

My first post in this weekends numbers threads. I did it. Now please, I want TDKR.

[Sims]

And you base that opinion on _______ ?

Similar RT scores and I'm guessing TASM's 7.6 will move towards Hellboy's current 7.1 on IMDB,

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Similar RT scores and I'm guessing TASM's 7.6 will move towards Hellboy's current 7.1 on IMDB,

Well, I would argue that TASM is trending better with way more 8 ratings than 7's but regardless, they appeal to different people. Hellboy is more niche, while Spidey is more establishment. Due to its cult type following, Hellboy was gonna make what it was gonna make, regardless of WOM, while due to its more broad appeal, the good WOM TASM is receiving will boost it.

[John Marston]

Hellboy 2 is such an idiotic comparison. Hellboy is pretty much a fanboy driven franchise. A harsh drop wound have happened second weekend no matter what. TDK just made it harsher. Transformers or Hancock are better comparisons

[The Futurist]

Bats eat Spiders for breakfast.This is gonna be ugly.

[lilmac]

Mad3 had a pretty nasty drop. Pretty much guarantees Brave will win the battle and probably by $10mil. $225 vs $215m