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Ant-Man | July 17, 2015 | 180.07m dom, 338.4m OS, Marvels 2nd biggest OW in China

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We should probably expect something around Cap2 numbers for Antman and the Wasp. So $700-800 million would be a pretty huge success honestly. 

That sounds reasonable, I guess.

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Cap 2 opened in a less competitive month, but also was considered a step up in quality. I think assuming a similar trajectory for Antman 2, why not. Hell, even Thor 2's downgraded reception still led to $600 million WW. 

There's a reason April had been traditionally less competitive, Cap 2 also opened when school was in.   It's success there is one of the reasons it's now a sought after month but that's not why it was there - it was there because Marvel ceded Sony the first week in May for SM2.

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especially considering it's budget ($130m).

Acc. to BOM (ignoring Ghost Rider 2 and the actual FF movie), the Marvel based movies got:

Since 2011 only The Wolverine had less ($120m), First Class had $160m, Thor ($150m) & CA 1 ($140m), DoFP $200m, Thor 2 & Ca 2 both $170m, ASpider-Man n/a (Wiki says $225m), ASM $230m, GotG nearly $196m (Gunn overshot), IM3 $200m, Avengers 1 $230m, Avengers 2 something over $250m, but that one is still open to discussion as reshoots were fought over. I am guessing for that one we might learn more when the tax... details will get released = I am hoping within the next 2 years.

It's probably worth noting two things:

 

1) Ant-man cost a lot more than 130m

2) Most of your other numbers are wrong, and way too low

You know, movies are expensive.  Though in your favor, Ant-man is still on the lower end of those movie budgets.  But still, if there's one thing I know, internet budgets are a bunch of bullshit.

Edited by kowhite

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If this movie wasn't profitable, they wouldn't have messed with the schedule AGAIN to squeeze in a sequel. It's one thing to do that for your bigger A-lister Spiderman, but for Antman? They knew they were going to make bank. 

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Cap 2 opened in a less competitive month, but also was considered a step up in quality. I think assuming a similar trajectory for Antman 2, why not. Hell, even Thor 2's downgraded reception still led to $600 million WW. 

$644,783,140  

I don't know who started with that, but Thor 2 made IMHO considerable more than $600m. At least additional nearly $45m are considerable in my POV, might be the opposite for some rich people...

It's probably worth noting two things:

1) Ant-man cost a lot more than 130m

2) Most of your other numbers are wrong, and way too low

You know, movies are expensive.  Though in your favor, Ant-man is still on the lower end of those movie budgets.  But still, if there's one thing I know, internet budgets are a bunch of bullshit.

Depends:

1, I explicit included the 'according to BOM' detail

2. The official agreed on budget is never the same as what a movie needed to get finished. That is (way) more, but tax rebates / pay-backs.... lessens the amount that will be seen written on the final bill for the studio

Percentages an actor gets out of the distribution of a movie seem to be a thing for discussion.

3. Distribution costs are not included into a movie's production budget. Some include that, but see ww, I have never found a site / system able to provide for that numbers in general = I love to read the seldom reports of a movie about that, but that is not a general system (and still never giving details ww)

4. I see no sense in mixing systems, as long as there are no reliable sources with details I stay with one system, like BO.com, who adds estimated dom advertising costs (I would use them if they use worldwide advertising costs instead), or The-Numbers.com and BOM.com's system, to give the ~ officially named budget ... let's call it production budget goal

5. I can imagine AM needed more based on the change in 'command' / additional writing,... but as there is - to my knowledge - not any reliable (and in this case not even an unreliable) report about it (and that reason has nothing to do with the movie itself) I will use the numbers all the ~ pro sites still use - including Deadline for their 'funny' yearly 'which movie made how much money' thing. Not a website I would take too seriously, for other reasons.

6. I am not that familiar with Georgia's tax laws, but via the tax pay-backs I am hoping to get more details in the future. Hence the reason I added GotG budget as an adjusted budget, in that case there were reliable articles about Gunn's too high spending. Movies filmed in UK usually means getting in-depths details within 2 years after the production was finished, no idea about Georgia.

If you know a source that gives more insight into the final production costs (distribution not included) I would be very happy to read up there.

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Ant Man and the Wasp will make 700M or more  If the movie does not suck too much.

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Ant Man and the Wasp will make 700M or more  If the movie does not suck too much.

Agree, it should/could surpass that mark (arrgh, I have to read up on the exact meaning os those terms, again)

Or very bad release scedule / big local competions in different countries, or whatever else not foreseeable might happen.

 

Curious how much above $500m AM 1 (= on Wednesday or Thursday) will reach, as you already pointed out, it will loose so many screens for the 2 new local movies on Friday (and then again later on...)

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Ant-Man and the Wasp isn't hitting 1B.

Yeah...it might be hard for the sequel.....cause Ant-Man isn't Cap.America or Iron Man or Thor.

But i do think anything over $700M WW could be doable. It will get a bump.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1) Ant-man cost a lot more than 130m

You know, movies are expensive.  Though in your favor, Ant-man is still on the lower end of those movie budgets.  But still, if there's one thing I know, internet budgets are a bunch of bullshit.

This is why I was befuddled at those who attacked Marvel for trying to keep budgets under control.    They were supposedly "cheap".    Yet....we've seen over and over on this board that a movie will be called out for spending too much and most even assume the budgets are bigger than stated.    So apparently anything a studio does is bad?   At least with Marvel...I don't recall any other studio being criticized for keeping costs down.

And since no one seems to believe these reported budgets, yet so much emphasis is placed upon profit margin....there is a lot of useless conversation going on!   :D

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I really don't see an Ant Man 2 growing that much, 600M ww would be great.

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I'd say Thor 2 WW is a good benchmark for Ant-Man 2. Not every MCU sequel can make Winter Solder money.

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Yep and people should start to take into account that the superhero market place is gonna be cluttered.

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Yep and people should start to take into account that the superhero market place is gonna be cluttered.

Maybe but Ant-Man 2 should make over 200M alone from China. As long as China continues to love Marvel and SH, they'll be fine. 

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It's probably worth noting two things:

1) Ant-man cost a lot more than 130m

 

Since you don't have an accounting sheet w/letter head from the studio we do what we always do for any movie. 

That is use the stated production value amount.

 

People constantly whip out this "that's not what it really cost" defense anytime they want to toss arrows at a particular production. I can't recall anytime I've ever seen any proof to the contrary either. Sure, at times a revised production cost is found, GotG comes to mind but it's rare.

The stated production cost is the production cost....until it's not.

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I really don't see an Ant Man 2 growing that much, 600M ww would be great.

 This one is already going to make like $550 million WW though. 

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Since you don't have an accounting sheet w/letter head from the studio we do what we always do for any movie. 

That is use the stated production value amount.

 

People constantly whip out this "that's not what it really cost" defense anytime they want to toss arrows at a particular production. I can't recall anytime I've ever seen any proof to the contrary either. Sure, at times a revised production cost is found, GotG comes to mind but it's rare.

The stated production cost is the production cost....until it's not.

If I were you, I would trust kowhite...

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If I were you, I would trust kowhite...

Yep, the Kowhite is strong in the Empire.

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Kowhite has been known to give crap numbers before. He's probably the same guy that said The Avengers cost 500 mil to make, when it was more like 225. Lol.

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^^^^^

Exactly. I've been around I've seen some things. Stated numbers over any posters speculated figures anyday. 

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I wouldn't believe this kowhite character, he's shady.

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