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2.13 "Fallen Champions"

  

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  1. 1. Which Final Five Champion will win?

    • acsc1312 ("The Shadowkillers")
      1
    • CEDAR ("The Shadowkillers")
      2
    • The Dark Alfred ("Team Destiny")
      1
    • JackO ("Team Destiny")
      0
    • Totem (individual)
      4
  2. 2. What team that won multiple games has been most impressive?

    • "The Crimson Knights" (Totem and Riczhang) (dominated Weeks 1-4, with the longest winning streak in BOA history)
      5
    • "The Black Stallions" (XenoZodiac and DoctorWho, and later Totem with Fakhir) (won Weeks 6-8, with the second longest winning streak in BOA history)
      0
    • "The Shadowkillers" (acsc1312 and CEDAR, with Goffe Recall) (won Weeks 5, 9-10, and 12, and the longest standing team of the season. They've been around since Week 1)
      3


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Welcome to the first week of the Final Five Championships. Three of the five Champions have already been selected. Acsc1312 takes first chair after his 1st place victory this past week. His partner CEDAR takes second chair after his 2nd place victory. The two original "Shadowkillers" are the only two members still active now who have been on the same team since the beginning, and "The Shadowkillers" is the only team left standing that existed in Week 1. Joining them is Totem, who started on "The Crimson Knights" then assimilated into "The Black Stallions", but now he may wind up standing alone if his two partners DoctorWho and Fakhir are unable to survive The Challenges hosted in Game 12.

Without further ado, the first of the last three games of the season.

Game 2.13

Deadline: Friday, September 7 at 2:00 P.M. Eastern (1:00 P.M. Central)

1. Predict The Cold Light of Day's gross difference on Saturday and Friday. You do not have to tell which day will gross more, but you must take the higher of the two and subtract the lower from it (e.g. 10m Sat - 5m Fri = 5m answer)

2. The Words' budget is 6 million. What will be the difference between its budget and its first 2 days' gross (just Friday and Saturday)?

3. Predict Celeste and Jesse Forever's weekend per theater average

4. How much over 100 million will The Bourne Legacy be at by the end of the weekend? (Give me the difference)

5. Predict the difference in 10 day grosses between The Posession and Lawless? (Give me the difference in their total grosses through the end of the weekend)

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Well this season will have 15 episodes (15 weeks + 1 because of a week delay in August = 16 weeks). Season 1 had 16 episodes and 16 weeks. Yeah, the season can take a while, but that's how I like it. It gives me time to feel involved with all the players and it makes the competition feel more fulfilling and personal.

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Really well done for making it this far guys, it isn't easy predicting your way into the final five, a very respectable achievement. And awesome job running this game Creator, you have been very consistent, on time, fair....

May the best predictor win. :D Ineed this win for my ego hahaha

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Final Five Champions

---Projections---

As we are now down to our Final Five Champions, I decided I would take a little bit of time to post my projections for who I think has the best probability of winning. All users are free to post their projections as well, so we can see in the end who was closest to predicting correctly. If you choose to do projections like I am intending, all you have to do is rank the remaining players in the order you think they will place once the season is over (e.g. Player A gets 1st place, Player B 2nd place, and so on). My projections however will be a little bit more in-depth and rather than predict which player will leave the season in what place, I am just going to present a probability/percentage of the likelihood of a player winning the season, based on seasonal statistics. Your projections, should you choose to do them, need not be so complex as mine.

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Projections (cont.)

There are 5 players left. Four of them are returning veterans. One of them is a rookie. Of the four veterans, three of them made it to the Final Five last season. The rookie player is the last of 7 rookies who began this season to remain standing. He now stands alone against 4 of the most consistent and strongest veterans. But let's see how each player compares against each other in these projections.

These projections are merely circumstantial and in no way reflect how the rest of the season may play out. They merely reflect my interpretation of the pros and cons affecting each standing player. I will start with the player I think has the least probability of winning and work my way up. Now, obviously every player has a 20% chance of winning, since there are five left standing and no player has any advantage via points as points have now been terminated. But my projections are based on all factors, including scores, standings, and unique facts about the players.

Up first is the player I think has the least probability of winning, and that player is...

The Dark Alfred

It's not that Alfred doesn't stand a chance of winning. In fact, he is one of the most experienced players of the game. He even won last season. And that's going to prove to be both a pro and a con here. Alfred is, in my opinion, the least likely player to win right now because he won last season. In the game, the frontrunner players are often the ones who are targetted the most. Alfred is always a strong force in the game, so I fear that if he doesn't pull off a victory this week or next, he won't have a shot at making it to the final round like he did last season. Alfred is seen as too much of a threat after his win first season, and I'm certain there are players left standing who would not wish to see Alfred re-compete for victory and a chance to hold his title.

Alfred is a very good player though and often posts one of the highest averages on a weekly and seasonal basis. He is generally well-liked, which could help him. If he doesn't win this week or next, but someone like JackO does, then he stands a great chance still of making it to the final round. Alfred has gone most of the season in elimination, but was brought back in Week 9 after the Second Chance Challenge and re-started on Team Destiny with JackO in Week 10. Because of his initial elimination in Week 2, Alfred has possibly been forgotten for a good chunk of the season, which could play into his favor. However, because he has been eliminated already, we know that his ability in the Challenge, while good, is not unrivaled, so if he goes into The Challenge, he could still face another elimination.

Alfred's major feats actually occurred in Season 1. He hasn't had many this season mostly due to his long absence. However, his feats this season do include winning the Second Chance Challenge and then leading Team Destiny to a 1st place victory in Week 11, in the team's second week of existence. He also pulled off a victory in the Challenge 12-1 last week, so he's won 50% of the Challenges he has participated in this season, and 67% of all the Challenges he has ever competed in (Season 1-2). He has managed to stay alive perhaps on luck, or perhaps on skill, but whether luck or skill, it will stand to be tested soon.

Pros: Alfred hasn't been around most of the season, so people who remember him as a threat may have forgotten by now, deeming him to be weaker than he was last season. He's also parterned to the underdog JackO, so that could prove to one of the most secure alliances of the season because both players share the same trait of being eliminated once this season, and surely both share the same sense of redemption and glory to win. He's a very good predictor and has great experience in the game, especially after winning Season 1. He is often a pretty well-liked player and is usually one of the most consistent and most active players of the season.

Cons: Alfred has a few factors weighing against him, though. Firstly and perhaps most prominently is his victory in Season 1. While that does show he is a great predictor, it also singles him out as a threatening entity in the game. Two other players in the Final Five made it to the Final Five last season, only to be ousted by Alfred in the end. I'm sure they will be Alfred's biggest opponents. Should "The Shadowkillers" sweep in the next two weeks, Alfred's end is more than certain. Acsc especially would have a grudge against Alfred for beating him by mere points in the finale last season. So Alfred stands in a volatile position here because "The Shadowkillers" are presently the most dominant team around. Also weighing against Alfred is his lack of experience this season. Because he was gone for most of the season, he is a bit more rusted than he was at the start of the season. He still has pulled off one victory since his rebirth, but he faltered last week and may slip up again this week or the next, and a sli-up now would spell failure. And lastly, although he may be a well-liked player, Alfred's largest supporters, like Townzy89, have all been eliminated, with the notable exception of his current partner JackO.

So all-in-all, Alfred does indeed have a shot at winning. But there are some factors that may hold him back in the eyes of his fellow competitors. Alfred's fate is going to rely mostly on him but also on JackO. From my interpretation of the season, Alfred's closest ally right now is definitely his partner JackO, so to stay alive, it may be crucial for that alliance to remain whole. Technically, like everyone else, ALfred has a 20% chance of winning, but my projection claims his probability of winning is:

10%

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The next player in order from lowest to highest probability of winning by my projection is...

Totem

Totem is perhaps the star of the season, on several levels. He was the early frontrunner and long outlived his partner of "The Crimson Knights" riczhang. Totem has impressed greatly this season and is a strong contender for Player of the Season. His early performance was especially impressive. If he hadn't missed a couple games or lagged on a couple, he would have been the frontrunner of the season by the time the Top Ten games began, instead of DoctorWho. However, he's been very close to the top each week and was frontrunner from week 1-5, at the least. He remains a powerful force to be reckoned with and one of the most consistently awing players of the season.

Totem is a veteran returning from last season. There, he really impressed in the first 3 weeks of the game like he did in the first 5 here. "Stark Bros" won or came close to it each of those 3 weeks, and Totem was considered the early frontrunner much like he was this season. However, he bowed out of the game just after th Top Ten games began for unknown reasons. This season, he stuck through it and has already passed his final ranking of 10th place from last season, and has been more impressive and consistent. But Totem has always been a very powerful player and one of the strongest of the game.

So why isn't Totem first on the projections? Well, it's mostly because of Totem's power. He is just "too powerful" perhaps, which could weigh against him. In many ways, Totem is this season's CEDAR (who also is this season's CEDAR, if that makes sense). CEDAR was the box-office diva of Season 1, trumping his competitors week by week and starting a ruly mess with "The Firerisers" (Townzy and Alfred, but especially Townzy). CEDAR was the frontrunner but was eliminated in the semi-finale because he made a minor slip-up. By my projections, Totem is much the same as Season 1's CEDAR. Totem has been a very strong predictor all season and usually averages near the top. His most impressive run was from Weeks 1 to 3, where he went from 3rd place, to 2nd, and then 1st, respectively. Like CEDAR in Season 1, Totem's fate relies on him not making any mistakes from here on out, because one slip-up will cost him. Totem is the biggest threat of the season and has been since Week 1, and I wouldn't be surprised if everyone else is allied against him because of his seasonal status.

Totem's feats are impressive. He won weeks 1-4 with his partner riczhang and later moved to "The Black Stallions", which won weeks 6-8. He has been consistent all season, minus a couple mishaps, and his scores in the two or three Challenges he participated in were highly impressive. As far as The Challenge goes, Totem is almost this season's Fake, but no player can match Fake's Challenge skills. Totem also amassed the largest number of points this season and even last week had 50 left over by the time points were to expire.

Pros: Totem is a very strong predictor, one of the strongest still playing. He has done really well on the Challenges he has competed in so far this season, so if he gets sent in again, he may be able to pull off a win. He is a very experienced predictor and has been very consistent all season long, so he stands a good chance at securing the top spot. Because he is a strong predictor, he would make a great partner for whoever seeks to finish in at least 2nd place.

Cons: There are some factors weighing against Totem. For one, he stands alone now. All his partners (riczhang, Xeno, DoctorWho, and Fakhir) have been eliminated, leaving Totem allianceless. He has no one left to back him up if he should falter. Also, it's likely the other four players are strongly against him after his victories in the early portion of the season. His biggest nemesis is Alfred, who was slain by Totem's hand in Week 2 and who lost his original partner Townzy89 as a by-product of "The Crimson Knights'" success. Totem has been deemed the biggest threat of the season, so the remaining players will likely try to oust him any chance they get.

Totem has a chance of winning based mostly on his box-office skill. But because he stands without any allies left, he may find himself the next to be eliminated. We shall see.

Win probability: 15%

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Up next

JackO

JackO is the lone rookie left standing. At the start of the season, we had 11 returning veterans and 7 new rookie players. JackO has outlasted all of the rookies and most of the veterans, despite an elimination in Week 9. In many ways, JackO seems to be the underdog of the remaining players. He was never really seen to be the strongest rookie. It was riczhang for the first 8 weeks, then it started to become Goffe Recall for a while, but ultimately wound up being DoctorWho in the frontrunner chair. JackO was consistent but rarely at the top of the game, although he has had a couple very high mentions on some weeks this season, including a 1st place finish in Week 11. But generally speaking, JackO was at times deemed a weaker rookie than players like riczhang, DoctorWho, Fakhir, and Goffe Recall, and placed on par with his long-standing partner Sims.

But JackO has been impressive because he has gone unnoticed for a long time. He has generally not been deemed a large threat and that is very beneficial to him. He managed to skimp by the first few weeks when "The Crimson Knights" were targetting the veterans. JackO went on to avoid The Challenge until Week 9, when it came down to the line and JackO was eliminated. But JackO had a short elimination because he placed in 2nd on the Second Chance Challenge and was reborn along with his partner of "Team Destiny" The Dark Alfred. JackO then went on to lead "Team Destiny" to a first place victory two weeks later. JackO generally goes under the radar most weeks and was only up for The Challenge last week because everyone who wasn't on "The Shadowkillers" was up for it.

So what is holding JackO back from being first on these projections? Well, a lot of it has to do with him being eliminated once already. This proves that he can fail in The Challenge. He's only won 50% of The Challenges he's competed in this season, not counting the Second Chance Challenge (which would bring it up to 67%). It also has to do with the unpredictability of a newcomer like JackO. He's not as well-known as the other four, so perhaps he is more ostracized than any of them, him being a "newbie" and all. But I think he has definitely overcome his newbie status if he has made it this far into the season, outlasting all the other rookie players to make it to the Final Five, just ahead of DoctorWho and Fakhir. So what's holding JackO back? It's his unpredictability, and also the lack of support from most other players. I mean to say that in the past couple polls, JackO has been voted as one of the players most likely to be eliminated.

But JackO has put up some feats this season. Although he has gone mostly undetected this season and did lose his first Challenge, he came in second on the Second Chance Challenge and was resurrected the same week he was eliminated. He also came in first place individually two weeks later and has had a couple other Top 3 mentions throughout the season, but that's pretty much true of all the remaining players. He managed to win the Challenge 12-2 as well.

Pros: The things weighing in JackO's far include his rookie status. This could actually be both a positive and a negative, but I'm considering it more of a pro in this instance. Because he is a rookie, he may not be deemed a big threat. Also supporting this is his mostly average performance over the course of the season (and I don't say that to be negative). Aside from a few exceptions, he generally averages in the normal range for players and therefore may not be seen as a big competitor, so the veterans may overlook him when it comes to the eliminations over the next couple of weeks. Because JackO is the most unpredictable of the standing players due to his newer status, he may stand a better chance at making it to the finale, but winning it is another story.

Cons: He is not the best predictor of the bunch. It's not that JackO is not a competent predictor, it's just that on an average weekly basis, JackO does not outmatch most of the remaining competitors. So even if he manages to make it to the finale, he may not be able to win it should it come to a one-on-one competition between him and one of the standing veterans. Thus far this season, his two Challenges occurred between him and one other rookie (Sims and then Fakhir) (excluding Second Chance Challenge). So we don't have a full measure of his skill in a one-on-one challenge with a veteran player, and especially not with one as competent as the four we have standing with him in the Final Five. Also, his only known ally now is Alfred, so his fate is currently tied to Alfred. We do not know if he may be courted by "The Shadowkillers" or by Totem should push come to shove.

So JackO does have some things weighing in his favor due mostly to his rookie status. This game definitely favors the underdog. JackO may just be that underdog.

Win probability: 20%

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Projections (cont.)

CEDAR

CEDAR is one of the most prominent star players of Box Office Alliance. Winner of Player of the Season last season, CEDAR finished 3rd place in Season 1 and spends his second season as a Final Five Champion. He is one of the most vocal players in the game, first to get his point across where he deems necessary. He's very competitive and spirited, and also one of the best predictors we've had in both seasons he's played. Looking at just Season 2, his results have been impressive. He co-captains "The Shadowkillers" along with his partner acsc1312. The duo have been partners since Week 1 and have proven to be the longest lasting team of the season and also one of the most powerful. CEDAR and Acsc stand the best chance at this point of making it to the finale, but from there it is ambiguous as to which of the two would win. By my projections, CEDAR stands a slightly less chance.

CEDAR, like Totem, is a high priority target. This means that should he falter, he's definitely going to be one of the first up for elimination. He has been proven to be a powerful player, and others will exploit any weakness on his behalf to oust him from the game. But unlike Totem, CEDAR has a very strong ally still alive. Totem's allies have all been eliminated, and it remains undetermined if any of the other four standing players have forged any alliances with Totem, but from my point of view, I think it is unlikely. CEDAR, however, has had a very secure alliance since week 1. His partnership with Acsc1312 may definitely save him from elimination and keep him going until the Finale, but at that point, if the duo make it, then it will come down to one of the two for the win. Because "The Shadowkillers" is the most potent force around right now, CEDAR, like acsc, stands a very solid chance of pulling off a victory.

So what's holding CEDAR back from being first on my projections? Well, it's a close call between him and Acsc, but looking at the season as a whole, Acsc has averaged slightly better. It's close, but acsc has been a tad bit more prominent this season that CEDAR. That said, along with Totem, the duo are probably the most significant players of the season, although DoctorWho and riczhang, among others, are also up there. CEDAR and acsc are about evenly matched, so should it come down to a final showdown between the two of them, it's going to wind up a nailbiter. CEDAR's skill could definitely save him. But then again, his luck may turn.

Pros: CEDAR's biggest pro right now is his alliance with Acsc1312. Combined, the two players are the strongest on the field. If one of them makes it to the semi-finale, the other one is guaranteed in as well, and so they would both support each other to the finale if they can. His other positive comes from his powerful predicting skills, but those can prove to be beaten by acsc or Totem, or by some twist move on Alfred or JackO's parts. Here, box office skill is unpredictable, so CEDAR's main factor favoring him is his alliance to acsc.

Cons: CEDAR is a high-priority target, the highest next to Totem and perhaps acsc. Because CEDAR won Player of the Season last season and because he is one of two or three most powerful players alive right now, he will be heavily targeted by all but acsc at this point, unless I am mistaken (which I doubt). CEDAR's strategy has been to predict to the best of his ability, but sometimes its the underdog who sneaks in and steals victory, and if that is to happen, CEDAR won't stand a chance because his name is more prominent, and he has a target painted across it. Also, his alliance with Acsc may ensure he makes it to the finale, but even then, it doesn't mean he will win. The amount of loyalty between them will have to suddenly be reversed in a final showdown, should the duo be the two to make it to the final round. And this season, they have been consistent, but acsc has placed higher on more games than CEDAR has.

So CEDAR definitely stands one of the best chances of winning at this point.

Win probability: 25%

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Which means, by my projections, the player I think has the best potential of winning right now is...

Acsc1312

The other Shadowkiller. Like CEDAR, he is poised to strike. He has been at the top of his game for most of the season. In the past few weeks, "The Shadowkillers" have been the dominant team. That's what gives him, and CEDAR by extension, the highest probability of winning at the moment. Acsc is a veteran of Season 1 who came in 2nd place for the whole season. This season, he seeks to avenge his loss and make it all the way to first place. By my current projections, he stands the best chance of doing so.

Acsc is a prominent force in the game. He is very similar to CEDAR in style and prediction. He makes himself dominant, like CEDAR does, rather than using a more subtle strategy, like not aiming for the best score so people don't consider you a threat. Instead, he let's people know he is a threat, and he decides on how to deal with it. But there's one issue that gives acsc. It means that people will want him gone, because it is a threat. But it also means that there haven't been many issues where people have braved encountering him in a Challenge. In fact, Acsc only ever participated in one Challenge in the entirety of Box Office Alliance, on the first episode of Season 1, and he lost it, but on a technicality was allowed to stay in. Thus, acsc really doesn't have much skill in the Challenge, so we know little of how he does on a one-on-one basis, unless we judge how he compared to Alfred in the Season 1 Finale. There, he also lost, so maybe on one-on-one he isn't at the best of his ability.

So why is Acsc in number one place right now? Well, I think he's willing to give it all he's got and definitely bring a thunderstorm should be sent to The Challenge or make it to the finale. He will definitely be seeking his redemption for his narrow loss last season, and he will desire to claim victory this season. In particular, should he verse Alfred in the finale, Acsc will probably seek nothing less than to crush his opponent who just narrowly defeated him in the Season 1 Finale. Acsc has a high probability of making it to at least the semi-finale and perhaps the finale because of his strong alliance with CEDAR.

Pros: He's a very strong predictor and he knows it. He also has a very secure alliance with CEDAR as "The Shadowkillers", the present most dominant and powerful team around. He will exercise all his power to ensure a Shadowkiller finale, and then I'm sure his skill could help him to win. His desire to win may make him a stronger predictor.

Cons: Has never won a one-on-one competition, so that could be a sign of failure. He's also a high priority target, one who everyone else will want to see eliminated (minus CEDAR) to better themselves.

In my opinion, acsc is the frontrunner right now and stands the best chance at victory.

Win probability: 30%

Let's see what this week has to say about all this. And remember, you guys can post your own projections should you wish, just ranking the remaining players in the order you think they will finish this season.

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