The Warner Bros. Thread | Will NOT merge with Paramount...capitalism is still terrible

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

theaters will largely be dead for non-tentpole films in the future unless you live in a major city

The majority of people live in major cities. More and more we see major hubs connecting a ton of smaller cities as a major metro area.

 

 

[Cappoedameron]

 

I mean the generic ass trailer didn't help either...

[redfirebird2008]

Villeneuve and Nolan might both be done with Warner. That's a big mistake by AT&T. 

[Cappoedameron]

Nolan should be quiet because WB did what he wanted with Tenet and he payed the price for being an ignorant moron. Any director thinking we'll be back to normal and they'll be making a profit in a year is a moron. 

 

Movies won't be making anywhere close to what they made pre-pandemic till maybe even 2023 esque. 

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Nolan should be quiet because WB did what he wanted with Tenet and he payed the price for being an ignorant moron. Any director thinking we'll be back to normal and they'll be making a profit in a year is a moron. 

 

Movies won't be making anywhere close to what they made pre-pandemic till maybe even 2023 esque. 

WB were the ones who wanted to put the movie out in 2020. 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

 Did the ability to watch live concerts on YouTube kill the concert business

I am not watching live film from theater on youtube. You can use that example for something like Hamilton at max.

 

Correct analogy will be how many watch concert vs how many stream/watch the song.

[lilmac]

It'll be interesting to see how the production companies who financed many of the films now going to HBO max are going to recoup their investment. I've seen the industry backlash and we can't give them the cold shoulder with the argument that, "nobody involved should complain...theaters are not safe....they should understand and evolve...people are dying...etc etc."  No, they need to get reimbursed. Period. The end. I'm also hoping that with the vaccine that by the second half of 2021 we start getting out of this quagmire.

[lilmac]

6 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

Nolan should be quiet because WB did what he wanted with Tenet and he payed the price for being an ignorant moron. Any director thinking we'll be back to normal and they'll be making a profit in a year is a moron. 

 

Movies won't be making anywhere close to what they made pre-pandemic till maybe even 2023 esque. 

 

Ironically it was Nolan's insistence on getting Tenet on the big screen that accelerated this move by WB

[excel1]

10 minutes ago, lilmac said:

 

Ironically it was Nolan's insistence on getting Tenet on the big screen that accelerated this move by WB

 

No way. They are looking at a serious a massive flops - even WW84 - due to insane incompetence with release date adjustments. Factor in HBO Max being a mega flop and we get this absurd decision. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by excel1

[Jamiem]

 

Rocking the Legendary hoodie 😂😂😂

[Ryan Reynolds]

55 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

 

Rocking the Legendary hoodie 😂😂😂

https://deadline.com/2020/12/dune-timothee-chalamet-legendary-hoodie-snl-warner-hbo-max-1234655631/

 

as bad as this looks, 75% of consumers probably approve of AT&T approach

Edited December 13, 2020 by Ryan Reynolds

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Jamiem said:

 

Rocking the Legendary hoodie 😂😂😂

Adam Wingard shared this on insta. Still waiting for directors and actors from WB's other 2021 movies to take a dig at this move, and not just the guys working on Legendary films. Keanu (who is loved by the internet) shittalking WB would be even better and would probably help start a geniune backlash outside of just the industry. 

[Jamiem]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Adam Wingard shared this on insta. Still waiting for directors and actors from WB's other 2021 movies to take a dig at this move, and not just the guys working on Legendary films. Keanu (who is loved by the internet) shittalking WB would be even better and would probably help start a geniune backlash outside of just the industry. 

Legendary is the most problematic for obvious reasons but agree would love for the likes of Will Smith, Jon Chu, Margot Robbie and James Gunn to also speak out directly about the situation. 
 

You are right though Keanu would be huge, he’s a man you don’t want to piss off (and not just because of John Wick) 

[kayumanggi]

4 hours ago, lilmac said:

 

Ironically it was Nolan's insistence on getting Tenet on the big screen that accelerated this move by WB

This is true, right? It was Nolan who insisted that TENET be released in theaters. This is where it started because his insistence made execs nervous about potential losses.

[Fullbuster]

In a few years, when streaming platforms are much bigger than they are today, pretty much everyone will be onboard with simultaneous rleases or even exclusive movies, Nolan included.

 

Some people are slower than others to accept change but they come around eventually.

[reddevil19]

56 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

In a few years, when streaming platforms are much bigger than they are today, pretty much everyone will be onboard with simultaneous rleases or even exclusive movies, Nolan included.

 

Some people are slower than others to accept change but they come around eventually.

Undoubtedly things are moving in that direction, but the reason this is such a poor move now is because it wasn't well thought-out and the logistics for the move just aren't there yet. 

Small steps in that direction must be made, but this is akin to jumping into a pool from a 30 foot board, without knowing how to swim, and discovering the pool is empty halfway down the fall... 

 

In order for streaming to properly cover the costs of massive movies (forget 200 million budgets, even the 100-150 range) in a volume people are accustomed to and in order to deliver on the spectacle and to accommodate the constant desire for something new (needed to maintain and grow subs), the service has to have proper worldwide reach and a big consumer base. Even Disney+ isn't there just yet, which is why Mulan had to have the extra cost on it. 

 

I personally believe the D+ Premier Access model can work as a day-and-date with cinema model for big blockbusters. BUT the service has to at least have a 200 million+ subscriber base and the access cost for a 48-72 hrs rental had to be under 10 dollars, followed by a 16 week window of guaranteed VOD, before it hits the service free of additional charges. 

 

The high subscriber base will mean there are plenty of costumers even if half of them skip it and a lot of people end up watching in groups. 

 

The low access price means more people that might only have watched it as a group are willing to pay and also subscribers that might have been undecided would be willing to give it a go. 

 

The short rental window would also mean people that truly love the movie might end up doing a repeat viewing, thus adding to the revenue. After all, the uber blockbusters get to that point in cinema thanks to repeat business. Hell, you can even include a model that allows for 30-50% off any additional views past the first one from the same account. This will encourage repeat business or, at the very least, help WOM for those sharing logins, etc. 

 

I think $8.99 - $9.99 is a good Premier Access price for this kind of model, as it doesn't break a psychological barrier. I could see a big DC or big MCU movie being able to hit 50 million purchases with that (plus a few repeats), while still selling 25-50% of their normal tickets at the box office. But, again, they would need a big enough base that, should only 25-40% of it pay the extra, it's still successful. With the revenue from streaming being all theirs, even a true 50-50% split with theaters from OD till close of a (reduced) theatrical window would be acceptable to cinemas. Combine that with a more consolidated cinema market, where there's fewer locations, focused on either the huge blockbusters or smaller, niche ones for the art house business, I think cinemas would also survive, though in a slightly different, smaller role. 

 

But, as I said, the infrastructure for this isn't in place yet which is why WB overshot. 

On top of the logistics for the studios themselves, as Nolan and others have pointed out, this is a huge move that affects back end deals for EVERYONE, not just the top level directors and stars. Without working out the details for such a huge change, what you get is the huge backlash we're seeing right now. 

 

It's not about being resistent to change just for the hell of it - it's about making those changes at the right time and in the right manner, to allow for success. WB seems to be doing the exact opposite... 

 

RIGHT NOW, I think Amazon is in the best position to capitalise on this. They DO have the infrastructure for massive worldwide roll-out of a $9.99 first run huge budget blockbuster. If they can work out the back office details, I could see them handing 200 million to Nolan for a high concept sci fi or something. They could work out a deal with IMAX to satisfy his desire for the big screen. 

Hell, if the LEGENDARY-WB thing devolves into a huge legal entanglement that severs all ties, I could see Amazon swooping in for Dune part 2... 

 

From this massive post, I think it's easy to tell there's lots one can speculate on when it comes to what happens next. But the point stands - WB fucked up by doing this now, and in this manner. 

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by reddevil19

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

In a few years, when streaming platforms are much bigger than they are today, pretty much everyone will be onboard with simultaneous rleases or even exclusive movies, Nolan included.

 

Some people are slower than others to accept change but they come around eventually.

Weren't you saying that Disney will push a full-streaming slate on Investor's Day lol? Considering that neither Disney or any other traditional studio except WB are pushing full-streaming slates and the only studio pushing one is being ridiculed atm, you've gotta start rethinking your timeline.

Edited December 13, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Atreides]

8 hours ago, Jamiem said:

 

Rocking the Legendary hoodie 😂😂😂

This and the Lexus parody were the only good things from that episode. I can't believe I watched 90 minutes of boredom just to see my baby. He still tried his hardest to make this material work tho

[Macleod]

4 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Undoubtedly things are moving in that direction, but the reason this is such a poor move now is because it wasn't well thought-out and the logistics for the move just aren't there yet. 

Small steps in that direction must be made, but this is akin to jumping into a pool from a 30 foot board, without knowing how to swim, and discovering the pool is empty halfway down the fall... 

 

In order for streaming to properly cover the costs of massive movies (forget 200 million budgets, even the 100-150 range) in a volume people are accustomed to and in order to deliver on the spectacle and to accommodate the constant desire for something new (needed to maintain and grow subs), the service has to have proper worldwide reach and a big consumer base. Even Disney+ isn't there just yet, which is why Mulan had to have the extra cost on it. 

 

I personally believe the D+ Premier Access model can work as a day-and-date with cinema model for big blockbusters. BUT the service has to at least have a 200 million+ subscriber base and the access cost for a 48-72 hrs rental had to be under 10 dollars, followed by a 16 week window of guaranteed VOD, before it hits the service free of additional charges. 

 

The high subscriber base will mean there are plenty of costumers even if half of them skip it and a lot of people end up watching in groups. 

 

The low access price means more people that might only have watched it as a group are willing to pay and also subscribers that might have been undecided would be willing to give it a go. 

 

The short rental window would also mean people that truly love the movie might end up doing a repeat viewing, thus adding to the revenue. After all, the uber blockbusters get to that point in cinema thanks to repeat business. Hell, you can even include a model that allows for 30-50% off any additional views past the first one from the same account. This will encourage repeat business or, at the very least, help WOM for those sharing logins, etc. 

 

I think $8.99 - $9.99 is a good Premier Access price for this kind of model, as it doesn't break a psychological barrier. I could see a big DC or big MCU movie being able to hit 50 million purchases with that (plus a few repeats), while still selling 25-50% of their normal tickets at the box office. But, again, they would need a big enough base that, should only 25-40% of it pay the extra, it's still successful. With the revenue from streaming being all theirs, even a true 50-50% split with theaters from OD till close of a (reduced) theatrical window would be acceptable to cinemas. Combine that with a more consolidated cinema market, where there's fewer locations, focused on either the huge blockbusters or smaller, niche ones for the art house business, I think cinemas would also survive, though in a slightly different, smaller role. 

 

But, as I said, the infrastructure for this isn't in place yet which is why WB overshot. 

On top of the logistics for the studios themselves, as Nolan and others have pointed out, this is a huge move that affects back end deals for EVERYONE, not just the top level directors and stars. Without working out the details for such a huge change, what you get is the huge backlash we're seeing right now. 

 

It's not about being resistent to change just for the hell of it - it's about making those changes at the right time and in the right manner, to allow for success. WB seems to be doing the exact opposite... 

 

RIGHT NOW, I think Amazon is in the best position to capitalise on this. They DO have the infrastructure for massive worldwide roll-out of a $9.99 first run huge budget blockbuster. If they can work out the back office details, I could see them handing 200 million to Nolan for a high concept sci fi or something. They could work out a deal with IMAX to satisfy his desire for the big screen. 

Hell, if the LEGENDARY-WB thing devolves into a huge legal entanglement that severs all ties, I could see Amazon swooping in for Dune part 2... 

 

From this massive post, I think it's easy to tell there's lots one can speculate on when it comes to what happens next. But the point stands - WB fucked up by doing this now, and in this manner. 

 

"This is the way."  👏

Edited December 13, 2020 by Macleod

[Napoleon]

Google delayed its intended return-to-work date from June to September 2021, which shows things aren't expected to go back to normal until later in the year, even with vaccination already starting. I believe a year from now the industry will be looking differently at WarnerMedia's decision, as I don't see a better alternative for them. We also have to keep in mind that an HBO/HBO Max subscription costs twice as much as a Disney+ subscription, so they only need half the amount of subscribers to get the same revenue.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Napoleon