Jump to content
CJohn

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | 20 DEC 2019 | 9th Most Profitable Movie of 2019 | Coming to Disney+ May 4th

AndyLL

Talking about the leaks, not matter how vague, can lead to a thread ban if not spoiler tagged.

Message added by AndyLL

Recommended Posts

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Let me check on BOM.

 

Oh right... :whosad:

 

:whosad: I had to go to Wikipedia to check the Worldwide grosses in 2016 :whosad:

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TROS will have one important items going for it just like EG did. It is the very last film in the saga wrapping the whole thing up.  People will really want to be out ASAP to see it so they dont have it spoiled by others. No other Star Wars movie ever ended the saga. Not ROTS it ended the beginning. Not ROTJ even, back then George Lucas was still talking about continuing the saga. Just like people went out to see TFA because it had been 10 years and people didnt expect Star Wars to come back to the theater. People will rush out to see how it ends. So could see it do very similar to EG opening weekend. In fact Friday and Sunday could be better. Many kids will be out of school on Friday and all will be out of school on Monday.  Quality of the film and how crowd pleasing it is will determine if TROS has a chance on domestic all time number.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Disbelief 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

pretty meh youtube views

Excellent twitter views. And both are trending above last teaser.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Franklin808 said:

TROS will have one important items going for it just like EG did. It is the very last film in the saga wrapping the whole thing up.  People will really want to be out ASAP to see it so they dont have it spoiled by others. No other Star Wars movie ever ended the saga.

Well Endgame wasn't a finale, if anything it was a backdoor pilot to 10 Disney+ TV shows. And of course it was followed just a few months later by Spider-Man:FFH.

 

Also nobody cared about the "Skywalker Saga" before Disney decided to use it as marketing for Episode IX (June 2019). Very few do now compared to "Star Wars".

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=skywalker saga

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=skywalker saga,star wars

 

Then again just like EG, the "finale" aspect might prove very effective as a marketing tool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Well Endgame wasn't a finale, if anything it was a backdoor pilot to 10 Disney+ TV shows. And of course it was followed just a few months later by Spider-Man:FFH.

 

Also nobody cared about the "Skywalker Saga" before Disney decided to use it as marketing for Episode IX (June 2019). Very few do now compared to "Star Wars".

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=skywalker saga

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=skywalker saga,star wars

 

Then again just like EG, the "finale" aspect might prove very effective as a marketing tool.

But what is there to really end? I think that is what people are puzzled about.

 

With EG, it was more about what the Avengers would do to end it based on a definitive plot.

With SW, it's more about what the director/writer/producers will do to end it because of the unknown plot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Franklin808 said:

TROS will have one important items going for it just like EG did. It is the very last film in the saga wrapping the whole thing up.  People will really want to be out ASAP to see it so they dont have it spoiled by others. No other Star Wars movie ever ended the saga. Not ROTS it ended the beginning. Not ROTJ even, back then George Lucas was still talking about continuing the saga. Just like people went out to see TFA because it had been 10 years and people didnt expect Star Wars to come back to the theater. People will rush out to see how it ends. So could see it do very similar to EG opening weekend. In fact Friday and Sunday could be better. Many kids will be out of school on Friday and all will be out of school on Monday.  Quality of the film and how crowd pleasing it is will determine if TROS has a chance on domestic all time number.

The ending of the saga helps - the rush factor probably holds down the later "holiday" leg kick...

 

BUT, unlike Endgame, there can't be a clear out for this movie b/c another major movie (Cats) opens against it (as does a minor one, Bombshell), and another blockbuster (Jumanji 2) opens the week before it (and may require a screen guarantee for booking, which seeing the last one's success, theaters will likely do).  So, the movie can't hope to come close to Endgame, b/c Endgame had an open weekend and a full clear out from no major movies the week before...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Cheebs86 said:

Excellent twitter views. And both are trending above last teaser.

Twitter is way down. Youtube about on par. Overall views appear to have fallen

22 minutes ago, Franklin808 said:

TROS will have one important items going for it just like EG did. It is the very last film in the saga wrapping the whole thing up.  People will really want to be out ASAP to see it so they dont have it spoiled by others. No other Star Wars movie ever ended the saga. Not ROTS it ended the beginning. Not ROTJ even, back then George Lucas was still talking about continuing the saga. Just like people went out to see TFA because it had been 10 years and people didnt expect Star Wars to come back to the theater. People will rush out to see how it ends. So could see it do very similar to EG opening weekend. In fact Friday and Sunday could be better. Many kids will be out of school on Friday and all will be out of school on Monday.  Quality of the film and how crowd pleasing it is will determine if TROS has a chance on domestic all time number

Let's not set unrealistic expectations here. December OWs tend to be depressed on FSS due to people being busy with other stuff and more time to see it throughout the holidays. And even without that, where is the data to indicate that it would come close to EG opening weekend? I'm not seeing anything indicating something close to that, and btw it doesn't need to come anywhere near 357 to be a huge success.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Menor
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly... I think Captain Marvel really helped End Game not just the reverse. She's a main character in it, so people went and saw it which got them excited for End Game. Worked on me!

  • Disbelief 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Honestly... I think Captain Marvel really helped End Game not just the reverse. She's a main character in it, so people went and saw it which got them excited for End Game. Worked on me!

Cap Marvel - Endgame - FFH were all linked together and hyped up perfectly. 

 

TROS doesn't really have a built up universe (relies to much on nostalgia) that so can't really compare to Endgame. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Cap Marvel - Endgame - FFH were all linked together and hyped up perfectly. 

 

TROS doesn't really have a built up universe (relies to much on nostalgia) that so can't really compare to Endgame. 

Yeah I think that's probably true but the finality helps. Different direction helps too. All depends on the quality of the film. Hell end game does 800m less if it was an average film.

 

Joker does what 400m ww if it was bad? Now it's gonna do near 1 billion on a tiny budget! Quality matters ALOT.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quality does matter. Good WOM then it might be able to bring in the folks who were frustrated at TLJ. If a vocal audience roasts the film a second time then another disappointing gross is in store. From the reactions I've watched though it feels like folks are still excited about it and a small group is going to skip it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Menor said:

Twitter is way down. Youtube about on par. Overall views appear to have fallen

Let's not set unrealistic expectations here. December OWs tend to be depressed on FSS due to people being busy with other stuff and more time to see it throughout the holidays. And even without that, where is the data to indicate that it would come close to EG opening weekend? I'm not seeing anything indicating something close to that, and btw it doesn't need to come anywhere near 357 to be a huge success.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I dont know about twitter and Youtube views and how they change over time. How do you really measure particularly with all the Youtube channels that simply take the trailer and put it on their channel. That is bigger now then it was back in 2015. What about all the views that are in reaction videos with the trailer before the reaction. How do you judge that?  How do you judge the views that were done Monday night on MNF?  

Funny that until EG the top 2 OW were TFA and TLJ which released at the same time. Now that time of year will be depressed.  EG released end of April right in the midst of finals week for a lot of colleges. 2 of my sons go to Big 10 schools. 1 of them was starting finals the day EG came out and 1 of them was ending finals that weekend. They are both out of school 2/3 weeks before Dec 19. My HS son finals end at noon on Dec 19. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yeah I think that's probably true but the finality helps. Different direction helps too. All depends on the quality of the film. Hell end game does 800m less if it was an average film.

 

Joker does what 400m ww if it was bad? Now it's gonna do near 1 billion on a tiny budget! Quality matters ALOT.

Well quality doesnt always matter. Joker is an OK film and it may do near 1B. Aquaman wasnt very good and it did over 1B.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

little update :)

 

YT main SW channel: 18.3 mil

TWITTER main SW: 13.5 mil

FB main SW: 5.2 mil

INSTA SW: 1.8

YT other links: 8.5

 

together: 47.3

 

all together are probably more then 50mil, there are too many reaction videos, breakdowns... cant count all those :) I am out of time ;)

 

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Honestly... I think Captain Marvel really helped End Game not just the reverse. She's a main character in it, so people went and saw it which got them excited for End Game. Worked on me!

Nope. If that was the case than EG would have dropped for she was barely in it. And new characters were never going to be as big draw as OG. lets not pretend that she's the next Tony or Cap. Not yet anyway since reviews singled out other cast + cat in her movie. 

 

She didn't hurt but she certainly didn't significantly help the boxoffice jump between IW and EG. That's mostly on goodwill from IW set up and OG closure with a little bit of synergy with CM. maybe I misunderstood you and you are not trying to over-credit her at the expense of other factors but it read like that to me.

Edited by Valonqar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Cap Marvel - Endgame - FFH were all linked together and hyped up perfectly. 

 

TROS doesn't really have a built up universe (relies to much on nostalgia) that so can't really compare to Endgame. 

42 years of building up a universe and fans. Not saying it will beat Endgame, but lets not act like 42 years of being in the most dominant pop culture phenomenon of all time a built up universe.


Lets also add that going into TROS there is a lot more mystery.  Everyone knew that in EG everyone would be brought back, and then the mystery is who would perish.  Yet even with that the hype was see it day 1, see it day 1.  Feel the hype for TROS will be the same. You need to see it before it is spoiled for you.

Edited by Franklin808
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ST feels disconnected from OT and PT despite the presence of OT characters and the saga was definitely NOT built to end with TROS. It ended with ROTJ. I don't know why some are pretending that the Saga didn't end already when it did and that many fans who don't like ST consider that the only proper ending.

 

Marvel build TA and connected movies to EG conclusion. Big difference. There's no other conclusion but EG. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I expect initial numbers similar to The Last Jedi - despite that movie turning millions of fans off, the fact that they hired a fantastic writer and brought JJ back made audiences excited again, and the trailers have promised a great movie again. So one thing may cancel the other so I'd say opening numbers stay flat. But word of mouth on this one I predict to be insanely good. Too much talent behind the camera, people who really love the saga and its characters. I have no doubt this movie will be an out this world experience for Star Wars fans. I have a lot of faith in this movie, fans will want to experience it over and over again in the biggest screen possible just like they did with The Force Awakens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.