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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | 20 DEC 2019 | JJ Abrams back to rescue the franchise from Ruin | Tag all spoilers. TLJ discussion is allowed | Trailer Pg 440

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7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So the question is whether TLJ showed a normalized SW box office result after the outlier TFA OR if TLJ suffered under its own and the drop was due to dissatisfaction. And, as a result, what will happen to TROS remains to be seen. If the situation is the former, the movie should perform around TLJ's numbers. If it's the latter, then it will depend on the WOM for TROS but we shouldn't expect much increase.

 

So, for now, are the current presale numbers good? The comps are showing $25 million-ish atm for Thursday previews. It will have to almost double to meet TLJ.

TLJ OS drop is definitely mostly due to various OS markets disinterest. That part TROS won't recover because they simply don't care for SW in any incarnation. TFA OS take was really deceiving and shouldn't be a measure of anything. It was a once in a lifetime anomally for the franchise and that's it. 

 

TLJ domestic drop most likely was bigger due to so-so WOM and increased (albeit unexpected) competition from Jumanji. When you think about it, TLJ wasn't really a kid-friendly movie (less adventurous and breezy) so Jumanji filled in that gap as an alternative and siphoned potential repeat business for TLJ. 

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from JJ:

“On this one, I let myself be, at least in the way I was approaching the thing, freer,” he said. “In Episode 7, I was adhering to a kind of approach that felt right for Star Wars in my head. It was about finding a visual language, like shooting on locations and doing practical things as much as possible. And we continue that in Episode 9, but I also found myself doing things that I’m not sure I would have been as daring to do on Episode 7.” 

“Rian helped remind me that that’s why we’re on these movies – not to just do something that you’ve seen before,”

“I won’t say that I felt constrained or limited on 7, but I found myself wanting to do something that felt more consistent with the original trilogy than not. And on 9, I found myself feeling like I’m just gonna go for it a bit more.” 

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18 minutes ago, jason1230 said:

from JJ:

“On this one, I let myself be, at least in the way I was approaching the thing, freer,” he said. “In Episode 7, I was adhering to a kind of approach that felt right for Star Wars in my head. It was about finding a visual language, like shooting on locations and doing practical things as much as possible. And we continue that in Episode 9, but I also found myself doing things that I’m not sure I would have been as daring to do on Episode 7.” 

“Rian helped remind me that that’s why we’re on these movies – not to just do something that you’ve seen before,”

“I won’t say that I felt constrained or limited on 7, but I found myself wanting to do something that felt more consistent with the original trilogy than not. And on 9, I found myself feeling like I’m just gonna go for it a bit more.” 

You can already tell by the trailers that this is true.  Glad JJ is following RJ’s boldness.

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11 hours ago, Porthos said:

(semi xpost with the Tracking thread)

 

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

204

12235

24000

11765

49.02%

 

Total Showings Added This Week

10

Total Seats Added This Week

751

Total Seats Sold This Week

534

 

T-39 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold This Week

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

427.05

 

185

2632

 

0/81

7982/10614

24.80%

 

88.40m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

507

11240

 

2/204

11498/22738

49.43%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

IW

66.30

 

15159

 

10051

 

25.86m

DP2

123.58

 

8133

 

10051

 

22.99m

Solo

173.62

 

5789

 

10051

 

24.48m

JW:FK

161.38

 

6228

 

10051

 

24.69m

AM&tW

218.26

 

4605

 

10051

 

25.10m

Venom

232.34

 

4493

 

10439

 

23.23m

CM

106.51

 

10553

 

11240

 

22.05m

EG

42.17

 

26655

 

11240

 

25.30m

TLK

102.40

 

10977

 

11240

 

23.55m

It 2

207.90

 

5659

 

11765

 

21.83m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

23.91m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

===

Very strong week locally, in large part due to some showings added in the prime viewing hours at a couple of the best theaters in town.

 

Comps with Infinity War, as lol as they will be at this stage due to TROS's head start, will start up again in next week's catch up report.

I'm wondering why there's such a difference between your and other trackers numbers and the chain level extrapolation we did in the tracking thread where it came out at $13 million. I think the issue might be that presales in non reserved seating theaters pick up much later and are generally lower overall.

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

TLJ OS drop is definitely mostly due to various OS markets disinterest. That part TROS won't recover because they simply don't care for SW in any incarnation. TFA OS take was really deceiving and shouldn't be a measure of anything. It was a once in a lifetime anomally for the franchise and that's it. 

 

TLJ domestic drop most likely was bigger due to so-so WOM and increased (albeit unexpected) competition from Jumanji. When you think about it, TLJ wasn't really a kid-friendly movie (less adventurous and breezy) so Jumanji filled in that gap as an alternative and siphoned potential repeat business for TLJ. 

Agreed, the majority of the drop simply came from a natural move back down to where the franchise had been in the past. Any issues with the reception of the movie may have impacted the exact amount the movie made, but not the level it performed on. E.g. if it had been really well received by everyone, maybe it would have made 700m domestically and 750m-800m internationally, but it wouldn't have come close to TFA either way.

 

TLJ not being as family-friendly / entertainment for everyone while Jumanji offered just that sounds very much true as well. Without Jumanji around, TLJ probably would have made more. Though again, that would have happened on a relatively small scale, it's not something that would haev elevated the movie way beyond what it actuall made.

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10 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Agreed, the majority of the drop simply came from a natural move back down to where the franchise had been in the past. Any issues with the reception of the movie may have impacted the exact amount the movie made, but not the level it performed on. E.g. if it had been really well received by everyone, maybe it would have made 700m domestically and 750m-800m internationally, but it wouldn't have come close to TFA either way.

 

TLJ not being as family-friendly / entertainment for everyone while Jumanji offered just that sounds very much true as well. Without Jumanji around, TLJ probably would have made more. Though again, that would have happened on a relatively small scale, it's not something that would haev elevated the movie way beyond what it actuall made.

Agreed. If you don't want to see something again you'll sit it out. Smaller % may go again but, as you say, small scale that wouldn't effect the total much.

 

Also, natural move back down to where the franchise was in the past =/= collapse. AIW 2 was total collapse aka no interest whatsoever which isn't the case with SW as a whole, just that interest in spin-offs, or at least prequel type of spin-offs (well, Solo) may not be in demand. 

Edited by Valonqar
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This seems to confirm that Feige is actually producing a SW movie and not just consulting or whatever. Maybe even the next SW Episode?

 

Quote

And, in something of a full-circle moment, Feige, who fell in love with superhero movies as a kid by watching Star Wars, has been invited into another Disney silo, Lucasfilm, to produce an upcoming installment of Star Wars. He gushes, "I love that world and I love the notion of exploring new people and new places in that universe."

 

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LOl, was there ever any doubt that he was producting? I always took it as that he was a full on producer.

Edited by Valonqar
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The current rumor on Fandom Menace Youtube (about the test screenings) is one of the funniest things I've ever seen. I wouldn't watch it though if you want to avoid (probably fake) spoilers.

 

 

TLDR: The test screenings were a disaster, the movie has been redone twice with an additional budget of $300m in the past few months, and Lucas himself was brought in to fix it. I don't know how these guys come up with this. :hahaha:

Edited by Nerfy
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2 hours ago, Menor said:

I'm wondering why there's such a difference between your and other trackers numbers and the chain level extrapolation we did in the tracking thread where it came out at $13 million. I think the issue might be that presales in non reserved seating theaters pick up much later and are generally lower overall.

No clue what so ever.  But I adjusted the phrasing of my chart in light of the national sale extrapolation though (removed the phrase "Nationwide Sales Estimate" and put in "Comps so far off of Final Total".

 

As I said in the thread, I am far too biased to comment on it much beyond that, but I can control what my charts suggest and thus re-worded things differently.

 

It could simply be amount of showtimes locally as the demand is clearly there to meet it.  

 

I do have other thoughts about those extrapolations... But, well, biased as I said. So I'll keep them to myself for now. :)

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30 minutes ago, Nerfy said:

The current rumor on Fandom Menace Youtube (about the test screenings) is one of the funniest things I've ever seen. I wouldn't watch it though if you want to avoid (probably fake) spoilers.

 

 

TLDR: The test screenings were a disaster, the movie has been redone twice with an additional budget of $300m in the past few months, and Lucas himself was brought in to fix it. I don't know how these guys come up with this. :hahaha:

psychology 101. you want something to happen. you hear it isn't happening. or you don't want something to happen but hear it's happening. You have to cope with the grief somehow so you invent a scenario that you want to be real, tell your likeminds that it is real, and when they respond favorably, you think that maybe if so many people agree your wish will come true.

 

you can find these types in SW fandom everywhere. I put them in 2 categories:

 

convoluted theorists - these guys don't try to sell their speculation as an actual leak, but they still work on the same priciple. They come up with extremly convoluted "evidence" that their dead theory is still alive (read: if the theory was alive it wouldn't need convoluted additional theory to support it but would draw evidence directly from the movie). And then hype likeminds in order to validate the theory (if so many like it, I'm on the right track). Example: Leia's ring with 2 stones = evidence that Rey is a Solo (one stone for Ben, one stone for Rey). This is probably the most convoluted theory I've seen and it was very popular among supporters of Rey Solo theory that was dead and buried since December 2015 (movie + Daisy Ridley openly saying Rey was not). hence why it needed something so WTF to stay afloat among its supporters.  

 

Convoluted Bullshitters - that's Doomcock and the likes. They think that inventing a convoluted "leak" will somehow change the movie to what they want to see. Basically, LFL/Disney will see everyone cheering Lucas version of the movie and reshoot the movie accordingly one of these days. Good luck with that. You better believe that some people (YTers most of all) believe they have the power to bring changes to the management, movies itself, etc. 

 

I know, funny.

Edited by Valonqar
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cover6.jpg

 

===

 

For real though, I always buy a sugar cookies for Xmas and you better believe I'm grabbing these when I find them :ph34r:

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I took about 10-15 minutes and submitted a sketch for the build a droid contest.  It was just cool to see my drawing on the webpage 😛

Edited by 75Live
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So (UGH) it is extremely clear that they have completely put all TROS marketing on ice until Mando/D+ get going. How long after it premiers (tomorrow) will they start serving up the TROS market machine? Will the Mando/D+ marketing keep going for the next week or two? Getting really depressing seeing nothing for an episodic SW film this close to release. I mean-I understand the reasons (Frozen 2, Mando, D+) but still-rather frustrating.

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14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So (UGH) it is extremely clear that they have completely put all TROS marketing on ice until Mando/D+ get going. How long after it premiers (tomorrow) will they start serving up the TROS market machine? Will the Mando/D+ marketing keep going for the next week or two? Getting really depressing seeing nothing for an episodic SW film this close to release. I mean-I understand the reasons (Frozen 2, Mando, D+) but still-rather frustrating.

It’s really not that different than anything else we’ve had so far.  It’s always been around Thanksgiving when the TV Spots and commercial promos start going ballistic to where they are literally every advertisement on the television lol. 

 

Also just Disney Plus.  Not sure if The Mandalorian is really gonna be my thing, but willing to give it a shot.  Stories not revolving around the force have always been lacking imo.  Maybe this one will change that.   

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The Mandalorian itself will be part of TROS marketing.

 

I mean, if it’s good like people are saying, the hype for the brand will also grow up, affecting the movie in some level.

 

Then it’ll only need that massive push for the next weeks.

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