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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | 20 DEC 2019 | NO SPOILERS | Reviews Page 651 | Worst reviewed live action Star Wars movie Ever

AndyLL

Talking about the leaks, not matter how vague, can lead to a thread ban if not spoiler tagged.

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1 hour ago, mikee11 said:

🤔 So how presale heavy is Star Wars exactly related to the other franchises...Do you know what percentage of tickets Solo sold in the first two weeks of presales compared to it's total presales ?

Pretty heavy. Regarded as one of the more pre-sale heavy franchises.

 

I do have the info for Solo, but one reminder.  That only had 21 days of pre-sales, so it's already nearly at its week of release at this point in its release run.

 

Here is an analysis I did a couple of weeks ago of first day sales:

 

On 10/18/2019 at 5:21 PM, Porthos said:

I think the nearly two month window is the biggest factor, personally.  There's also the minor consideration of tickets (probably) dropping at 8pm EDT/5pm PDT so a true "one day" comparison is gonna be tough with something that dropped at 8am EDT/5am PDT.

 

As it is, I have zero data for TFA and TLJ at the starts of their run.  I have some sellout/percentage data for TLJ's last week of pre-sales buried deeeeeeply in this thread, for what it's worth.  But nothing at the seat level, unfortunately (I started doing that on Black Panther's run).

 

But what I do have:

 

IW:      4662 | 13164 | 35.41% of sales | 42 days of pre-sales

Solo:   2630 |   5789 | 45.43% of sales | 21 days of pre-sales

--- (more theaters tracked below this line)

CM:    1498  | 10553 | 14.20% of sales | 59 days of pre-sales

EG:    14975 | 26655 | 56.18% of sales | 24 days of pre-sales

 

Looking at it, imma gonna go with "yes".  Even Solo, which never really took off at the end still had a stronger first day of sales to final count ratio than Endgame.  That's 1) how insane EG's first day was and 2) how many tickets had to be bought beyond opening night.

 

Now, both Solo and Captain Marvel had a few hours of sales in the previous day that I rolled over into "day 1", but that would just make the percentage even lower if they were accounted for or some sort of "true 24 hour period" was established.  Likewise, the percentages of both IW and EG would go up, as those are around 18 hours or so of sales.

 

I could pull up the Solo data for two weeks of sales, but like I said the comp is nearly useless.

 

One week of Solo's sales was 55.6% of its total sales (3219/5789).  Perhaps a better comp would be Infinity War.  It had 42 days of pre-sales and while it'd be closer to release, it might be decent enough.

 

Two weeks of Infinity War's sales were 49% of its sales (6452/13164).  

 

I don't particularly think it's a great comp, but for sheer length, Captain Marvel, has practically identical length in pre-sales compared to TROS.  Its two week total was 23.44% of total sales (2474/10553).  I don't expect that ratio for a second.  But it could very well be under IW's 50% simply because it has two more weeks to rack up numbers.  If not by a lot.

 

So, sadly, I don't have great hard data for you.  Do think it's a pretty strong second week though. 

 

As for conclusions about all of this, like I said last week, I'll have a better idea in my head of the probabilities once I have more pre-sales under my belt.  And even then, the real open question is the ramp up in the final week.  That I really can't answer until much much closer to showtime. :)

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I would add that using IW's number of 49% and then bumping it up to 50% might not be a totally horrific ad-hoc adjustment.  Star Wars is pre-sales heavy, but so too are Avenger films. The extra two weeks for TROS could counter-balance the inherent fan rush for SW films.

 

If so, we might be looking at 46m in previews for Thr.  But that is an crazy ad-hoc guesstimate based on a ton of pulled out of my ass suppositions. Starting with my methodology (which might not be great) and then expecting a nice ramp up at the end like Infinity War got (which TROS might not get) as well as still selling decently in the marathon stage (who knows).

 

Feel pretty decently about it doing more than 40m on Thr, I'll put it that way. Mostly because ticket sales didn't fall off a cliff this past week.  Though make no mistake, the long tail that is the marathon portion of sales is coming. But that it's taking as long to appear as it is... Well, it's a good sign for TROS.

 

But, and while I may very well be the board's resident Star Wars Shill and Apologist, it's still only exactly that:  A good sign.  Nothing more, but also nothing less. :)

 

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So I saw while searching on twitter that there was a secret screening yesterday to Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker while searching Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Screening on Twitter. Anyone can confirm if that is accurate and If reactions did came out yet? 

 

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3 minutes ago, Seth Irskens said:

So I saw while searching on twitter that there was a secret screening yesterday to Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker while searching Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Screening on Twitter. Anyone can confirm if that is accurate and If reactions did came out yet? 

 

Staying spoiler free, not gonna search. I doubt any screenings will be secret, star wars films are not tested with regular audiences. There may be employee screenings at Lucasfilm/Disney/BadRobot .

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2 hours ago, Seth Irskens said:

So I saw while searching on twitter that there was a secret screening yesterday to Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker while searching Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Screening on Twitter. Anyone can confirm if that is accurate and If reactions did came out yet? 

 

The person to ask would probably be @ViewerAnon as they're more clued in with any possible secret screenings, on lot or not.  But if it was on lot (ie Disney/Lucasfilm employees/friends) they might not know about it, either.

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2 hours ago, Seth Irskens said:

So I saw while searching on twitter that there was a secret screening yesterday to Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker while searching Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Screening on Twitter. Anyone can confirm if that is accurate and If reactions did came out yet? 

 

send me the link to that news.

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10 hours ago, Porthos said:

I would add that using IW's number of 49% and then bumping it up to 50% might not be a totally horrific ad-hoc adjustment.  Star Wars is pre-sales heavy, but so too are Avenger films. The extra two weeks for TROS could counter-balance the inherent fan rush for SW films.

 

If so, we might be looking at 46m in previews for Thr.  But that is an crazy ad-hoc guesstimate based on a ton of pulled out of my ass suppositions. Starting with my methodology (which might not be great) and then expecting a nice ramp up at the end like Infinity War got (which TROS might not get) as well as still selling decently in the marathon stage (who knows).

 

Feel pretty decently about it doing more than 40m on Thr, I'll put it that way. Mostly because ticket sales didn't fall off a cliff this past week.  Though make no mistake, the long tail that is the marathon portion of sales is coming. But that it's taking as long to appear as it is... Well, it's a good sign for TROS.

 

But, and while I may very well be the board's resident Star Wars Shill and Apologist, it's still only exactly that:  A good sign.  Nothing more, but also nothing less. :)

 

This is a good analysis and summary of where we are. Thanks for the explanation.

 

I wish we had numbers for TLJ and TFA at this point in pre-sales.

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re: secret screening. If there was any, one twitter account sounds like complete BS. First he announced he was going to see TROS on a top secret screening and then 1 hours later, yes, just 1 hour later, he posts greatest SW movie ever hyperbole. Like, WTF? He obviously hasn't seen shit. 

 

if you want to check the timeline of his posts, his name is @MountainMan1855. No spoilers but just in case someone is super spoilerphobic I didn't tag the account.

 

Also, his personal description says he's a Futurist. :thinking:

 

And no way that Cineworld SecreetScreening, that was the other tweet about TROS possibility, is TROS:

 

https://www.cineworld.co.uk/blog/secret-screening-cineworld-november

 

base don their twitter page looks like it was Argonauts.

 

 

Edited by Valonqar

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RE: comps with Marvel

 

SW Thursday previews have in the past constituted a larger share of their opening weekend then Marvel and other franchises. I.e. a $39M Infinity Preview multiplied out to a $258M opening, while a $45M Star Wars: TLJ Thursday multiplied out to a lower $220M opening.

 

See also: How the calendar shapes the performance

 

UGQDhjy.png

 

Star Wars Cinematic Universe (2015-2018) Thursday
Preview
(TP)
TP to FW
Multiplier
First
Weekend
(FW)
FW to DT
Multiplier
Days to
90% DT
Domestic
Total
(DT)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec. 2015) $57.0M 4.35 $248.0M 3.78 30 $936.7M
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Dec. 2016) $29.0M 5.35 $155.1M 3.43 25 $532.2M
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017) $45.0M 4.89 $220.0M 2.82 23 $620.2M
Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 2018) $14.1M 5.99 $84.4M 2.53 24 $213.8M
average of table $36.3M 5.14 $176.9M 3.14 26 $575.7M
'A Star Wars Story’ average of table $21.6M 5.67 $119.8M 2.98 25 $373.0M
sequel / episode average of table $51.0M 4.62 $234.0M 3.30 27 $778.4M

 

Marvel Cinematic Universe (2014-2019) Thursday
Preview
(TP)
TP to FW
Multiplier
First
Weekend
(FW)
FW to DT
Multiplier
Days to
90% DT
Domestic
Total
(DT)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Apr. 2014) $10.2M 9.32 $95.0M 2.73 30 $259.8M
Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug. 2014) $11.2M 8.42 $94.3M 3.53 43 $333.2M
Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 2015) $27.6M 6.93 $191.3M 2.40 26 $459.0M
Ant-Man (Jul. 2015) $6.4M 8.94 $57.2M 3.15 37 $180.2M
Captain America: Civil War (May 2016) $25.0M 7.17 $179.1M 2.28 23 $408.1M
Doctor Strange (Nov. 2016) $9.4M 9.05 $85.1M 2.74 29 $232.6M
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (May 2017) $17.0M 8.62 $146.5M 2.66 30 $389.8M
Spider-Man: Homecoming (Jul. 2017) $15.4M 7.60 $117.0M 2.86 36 $334.2M
Thor: Ragnarok (Nov. 2017) $14.5M 8.47 $122.7M 2.57 29 $315.1M
Black Panther (Feb. 2018) $25.2M 8.02 $202.0M 3.47 38 $700.1M
Avengers: Infinity War (Apr. 2018) $39.0M 6.61 $257.7M 2.63 30 $678.8M
Ant-Man and the Wasp (Jul. 2018) $11.5M 6.59 $75.8M 2.86 31 $216.6M
Captain Marvel (Mar. 2019) $20.7M 7.41 $153.4M 2.78 38 $426.8M
Avengers: Endgame (Apr. 2019) $60.0M 5.95 $357.1M 2.40 25 $858.4M
average of table $20.9M 7.79 $152.5M 2.79 32 $413.8M
first entry average of table $14.7M 8.24 $118.2M 3.09 37 $367.9M
sequel average of table (incl. ‘Avengers’) $25.6M 7.46 $178.2M 2.57 28 $448.2M
'Avengers’ average of table $42.2M 6.50 $268.7M 2.48 27

$665.4M

Edited by MagnarTheGreat
added chart
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so in plain English, what does it mean for TROS? better or worse than TLJ and/or TFA?

Edited by Valonqar

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35 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

so in plain English, what does it mean for TROS? better or worse than TLJ and/or TFA?

Can't really extrapolate anything at this stage other than as long as Thurs Previews stay above $40M then $200M+ OW is good to go. With the finale factor I doubt TROS will be less frontloaded on OW than TLJ was. 

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2 hours ago, langer said:

When did the presales start? 

Oct 21st, approx 8pm EDT.

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2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Can't really extrapolate anything at this stage other than as long as Thurs Previews stay above $40M then $200M+ OW is good to go. With the finale factor I doubt TROS will be less frontloaded on OW than TLJ was. 

$40m with the internal multi of  TLJ would bring it to $195.6m.   

 

A lower internal multi - say 4.62 (right between TFA and TLJ)  would require $43.29m in previews

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