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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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Rank Title Gross(M) Cume Gross(M) Per Screen Avg. Per Ticket Avg. Showings Admissions Days
 
1
249736.jpg
$4.97 $32.27 $220.70 $4.64 63036 1069470 4
2
$4.07 $72.44 $202.49 $4.91 52230 828318 11
3
$1.17 $67.65 $125.06 $5.47 19115 214203 11
4
$1.13 $9.71 $94.13 $4.70 28526 241502 4
5
$0.98 $294.31 $99.36 $5.50 17256 177399 25
6
$0.94 $10.33 $83.79 $5.07 23824 184703 4
7
$0.52 $8.43 $51.19 $5.15 19600 100982 5
8
$0.43 $6.58 $36.41 $5.16 22007 82813 4
9
$0.11 $2.02 $1611.05 $6.41 151 17588 613
10
$0.11 $2.61 $1214.21 $6.32 162 17680 1119
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3 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Maoyan presells takes little bit fun out of box office prediction. What you'll think will be the highest grossing hollywood and local movies this year in china?

Hollywood-

  1. JW: FK- $240m
  2. IW- $230m
  3. Rampage- $180m
  4. MI VI- $160m
  5. I2- $150m
  6. Ant Man 2- $120m

Local movies-

Monkey king 3, IDK.

CBO is hard to predict. But if MI6 is just 'another' MI5, I doubt it might even decrease from MI5's $135m.

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8 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Biggest local movie should be Monster Hunt 2. Biggest Hollywood I'm leaning towards IW.

I will not dare to say anything about local films because then it comes a Wolf Warrior 2 and destroys every logical prediction.

 

Concerning Hollywood films, I would bet on Jurassic World 2. SH films seem to have a limit in China.

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8 minutes ago, peludo said:

I will not dare to say anything about local films because then it comes a Wolf Warrior 2 and destroys every logical prediction.

 

Concerning Hollywood films, I would bet on Jurassic World 2. SH films seem to have a limit in China.

I think firedeep mentioned Avengers films are seen as event films and not subject to the usual SH ceiling (around $100 million). Last time in 2015, it was a very close race between AoU and JW in China. It's a bit hard to gauge hype because Marvel has many fanboys/girls whereas the JW franchise relies more on GA.

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8 minutes ago, peludo said:

I will not dare to say anything about local films because then it comes a Wolf Warrior 2 and destroys every logical prediction.

 

Concerning Hollywood films, I would bet on Jurassic World 2. SH films seem to have a limit in China.

Avengers Age of Ultron managed a $240M run in China... which is out of the standard 100ish for a sh movie there, but IW is an Avemgers 3.

 

Avengers 1 made 89M, Avengers 2 made 240, Avengers 2.5 CW made 180...

 

Would be interesting to know how many views IW trailer had in Chinese video-sites (I ignore if censorship allows YouTube there or not)

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2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

I think firedeep mentioned Avengers films are seen as event films and not subject to the usual SH ceiling (around $100 million). Last time in 2015, it was a very close race between AoU and JW in China. It's a bit hard to gauge hype because Marvel has many fanboys/girls whereas the JW franchise relies more on GA.

 

2 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Avengers Age of Ultron managed a $240M run in China... which is out of the standard 100ish for a sh movie there, but IW is an Avemgers 3.

 

Avengers 1 made 89M, Avengers 2 made 240, Avengers 2.5 CW made 180...

 

Would be interesting to know how many views IW trailer had in Chinese video-sites (I ignore if censorship allows YouTube there or not)

I am not saying that IW will make the standard $100m for SH genre. I know that Avengers is in its own league being part of SH genre. SH films use to make 600-800 range. Avengers films (Ultron and Civil War) doubled that range. But the WoM of that film was not as good as JW. I do not think it will increase significantly relative to Ultron. Maybe 1.5b-1.6b if it is good enough (let's remember that Guardians of the Galaxy 2 was not able to increase significantly in China in spite of being a sequel of a beloved film).

 

I can see JW2 going higher than that. WOM of JW was way better than Ultron's or Civil War: Ultron OD 186m (x7.85) - Total 1.46b

JW OD 101m (x14.06) - Total 1.42b

Civil War OD: 180m (x6.94) - Total 1.25b

 

JW was able to outgross Civil War and did nearly the same amount than Ultron. And let's say that both Ultron and Civil War are sequels of already well known characters. Jurassic World, being part of a franchise, was the first one with new characters.

 

IMHO, JW2 is favorite to win.

Edited by peludo
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6 hours ago, CoolK said:
Rank Title Gross(M) Cume Gross(M) Per Screen Avg. Per Ticket Avg. Showings Admissions Days
 
1
249736.jpg
$4.97 $32.27 $220.70 $4.64 63036 1069470 4
2
$4.07 $72.44 $202.49 $4.91 52230 828318 11
3
$1.17 $67.65 $125.06 $5.47 19115 214203 11
4
$1.13 $9.71 $94.13 $4.70 28526 241502 4
5
$0.98 $294.31 $99.36 $5.50 17256 177399 25
6
$0.94 $10.33 $83.79 $5.07 23824 184703 4
7
$0.52 $8.43 $51.19 $5.15 19600 100982 5
8
$0.43 $6.58 $36.41 $5.16 22007 82813 4
9
$0.11 $2.02 $1611.05 $6.41 151 17588 613
10
$0.11 $2.61 $1214.21 $6.32 162 17680 1119

Where am I ?

maxresdefault.jpg

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Just a question from an ignorant: Some of you were saying during the weekend that Ferdinand could make a leggy run. I see that Ferdinand (and Wonder too) have great Maoyan score (both over 9), so that would be the reason to think about it. But, do you still think that these films can explode? I get that, for example, Ferdinand is an animated film and it should have better results during weekends, but even cosidering that factor the Mon-Tue results do not seem so promising in my eyes...

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3 hours ago, peludo said:

 

I am not saying that IW will make the standard $100m for SH genre. I know that Avengers is in its own league being part of SH genre. SH films use to make 600-800 range. Avengers films (Ultron and Civil War) doubled that range. But the WoM of that film was not as good as JW. I do not think it will increase significantly relative to Ultron. Maybe 1.5b-1.6b if it is good enough (let's remember that Guardians of the Galaxy 2 was not able to increase significantly in China in spite of being a sequel of a beloved film).

 

I can see JW2 going higher than that. WOM of JW was way better than Ultron's or Civil War: Ultron OD 186m (x7.85) - Total 1.46b

JW OD 101m (x14.06) - Total 1.42b

Civil War OD: 180m (x6.94) - Total 1.25b

 

JW was able to outgross Civil War and did nearly the same amount than Ultron. And let's say that both Ultron and Civil War are sequels of already well known characters. Jurassic World, being part of a franchise, was the first one with new characters.

 

IMHO, JW2 is favorite to win.

Same can go for JW2, and not increase even coming from a previous beloved installment. I think it's gonna be a tied-up battle between IW and JW2, win by the former. I see IW making $300M and JW2 falling a bit short. But of course, as always in China's box office, it will depend on local movies counter program and reception.

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14 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Same can go for JW2, and not increase even coming from a previous beloved installment. I think it's gonna be a tied-up battle between IW and JW2, win by the former. I see IW making $300M and JW2 falling a bit short. But of course, as always in China's box office, it will depend on local movies counter program and reception.

The difference I see is that GOTG is a SH film and JW is not. I have not seen any indicator that SH films can suddenly explode and go to the +2b level. Every film of the genre have done systematically the same amounts in the last 3 years, independently of the quality, the brand or the characters involved.

 

On the other side, the genre of monsters seems to be more favorable in CBO. A way less anticipated film in a similar genre like Kong did nearly the same than Civil War last year. I can be wrong because, as you say, the CBO is unpredictable, but I see more advantages for Jurassic World than for Avengers.

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