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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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Sun PS is at about 6.33 which is down about 51% from Saturday PS. For comparison Captain Marvel's Sunday PS was down about 46% or so off the top of my head and it's Sunday fell about -37% from Sat gross. If Shazam performs similarly it's Sunday gross will drop by about 40%. 

 

Yesterday I predicted about 70 for Sat and about 50 for Sunday. Saturday came very close. To get to 50 Shazam would need a 26% drop. That is way too optimistic it seems and wont happen. So for now I'd go with a range of 35-45%. That seems like a big range but since the gross is so low the actual difference between 35% drop and 45% drop is just 1 million USD. That would be an OW of around 31-32. A drop of 50% would yield an OW of around 30m USD

 

That would be a PS to OW ratio below that of even Black Panther. And with ratings as low as Black Panther, Shazam may not have better legs than Black Panther. Same legs gets it to about 50m USD total.

 

After seeing the movie I understand why it is not connecting with international audiences. But still that total is baffling. 

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At the end of the day as long as studios are only getting 25 % of the profits from the chinese box office whether a movie grosses 50M or 100M you are still dealing with pretty low profits.

 

Of course its a nice bonus to gross as much as possible but in the end its really only a huge deal for the studios profits if a movie breaks out hard like Aquaman did in China. Now instead of Shazam earning 25M like it would have from a 100M box office in China Shazam will instead earn 12,5M from a 50M box office. Still mediocre sums of profit either way.

 

Aquaman and Venom on the other hand profited much more from China and its only when you hit those sums that China is a profit dealmaker at the box office. Of course any million more you earn in profit is good but about 10M less in profit than usual for a small scale superhero movie is pretty insignificant. 

 

Not even Deadpool's humor worked at all in China while it worked great all over the world, so not that strange that Shazam's humor failed to connect with China.

 

 

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Although the pre-sale of Endgame won't start until next week at the soonest, but many big theaters already made unwritten deal with many fans, companies - Once the release license comes, these people will get priority to choose which seats they will have.

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2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Although the pre-sale of Endgame won't start until next week at the soonest, but many big theaters already made unwritten deal with many fans, companies - Once the release license comes, these people will get priority to choose which seats they will have.

Is that normal or unusual? 

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2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Although the pre-sale of Endgame won't start until next week at the soonest, but many big theaters already made unwritten deal with many fans, companies - Once the release license comes, these people will get priority to choose which seats they will have.

Pre-Presales! China is truly next level.

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58 minutes ago, LordNox said:

At the end of the day as long as studios are only getting 25 % of the profits from the chinese box office whether a movie grosses 50M or 100M you are still dealing with pretty low profits.

 

The Netflix equivalent in China, is making revenues in China somewhat close to Netflix in the US this year, I am not so sure it is still a case of studio making only 22-23% of the BO at that's it like 5 year's ago.

 

Specially with the rumored buy out price we see talked around, post theatrical could be existing by now.

 

And even just pure bo return wise, a 25m from China would be more than 20% of the profits of almost any movies and still a big deal.

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10 minutes ago, LeoC said:

The Shanghai Premiere was giving away 8500 tickets to fans: 500 red carpet entrees and 8000 ordinary seats. All gone in less than 1 minute.

And the app that fans had to download to get the tickets survived the traffic. So shame on Fandango and AMC.

 

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1 hour ago, LeoC said:

And the app that fans had to download to get the tickets survived the traffic. So shame on Fandango and AMC.

 

To be fair, 8000 tickets for fans in China, say in  40-50 seconds is about 10,000 tickets per minutes, I assume Fandango and AMC were dealing with a few times more traffic than 10,000 queue/min in first hour of pre-sales opening (even if they couldn't get the tickets, the queue would have disrupted the traffic).

 

Also, the app must have been customized to only book one single show (Shanghai Premiere), whereas people logging in to Fandango and AMC have to go through several steps of choosing theaters, screens, payment options etc.

Edited by justvision
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36 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Jesus that is so bad. Well on the positive side this is a perfect blueprint for what not to do in China.

$45M in China lifetime. 150M overseas sans China lifetime. 

 

400M looks unreal at this point of time. 😱😱

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On 4/5/2019 at 2:00 PM, POTUS 2020 said:

I see just 201m/$30m

I don't know why I keep reading $45m with tomorrow PS so low(8.4m, maybe going to 10m) and a 7.9 rating

Am I missing something?

MN      6

OD   102

Sa      55

Su      38

Tot    201m

 

 

On 4/5/2019 at 2:37 PM, cdsacken said:

Serious detachment in that analysis. Impressive, curious to see how close you are. My guess is pretty close but I'm worthless on China thus far lol.

I was off on the individual days but the weekend will be close.

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