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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread (2019 the worst year for HLW)

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24 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth

Yup. possibly higher

$102m OW

$103m  Midweek

$105m 2nd weekend (even with a 150m thur this should happen- F185, S285, S255

$60m 2nd Midweek  (normalized sun, mon, tues drops reduce the MW even with same WE amount

$370m 14 day total

with a $165m 2nd week. 

Just 60% drops in week 3 and 4 get it to $462m plus $10m+ for rest of run  $472m

50% drops $493m +$15m RoR,  $508m

 

 

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4 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

Wednesday presales are bigger than Monday&Tuesday.

Mind-boggling!

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Insane. CBO never ceases to throw a shocker. NZ gonna do close to 4x TLK.

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Looks on track for another 180+ day, this thing is insane. First truly big film since April.    

 

I bet Uni feels pretty good about avoiding that day and date right now 😛 

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24 minutes ago, Xiaoshu said:

138M by 7p.m

So, basically flat relative to both Monday (135) and Tuesday (140)... amazing

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57 minutes ago, MeowwoeM said:

Heyyyy anyone knows what's up with Gavin? He locked his Twitter account 

Oh jeez.  I wasn't harsh on him. He said my over $400m projection with data backing it up was wrong with a wave of the hand.  I pointed out he has been wrong lately and quite frankly trolling at times with SW? doing $100m?

I'm not sure who is more sensitive Chinese or Indians.  I'm sure I'll get a response:D

Anyway, Slight bump for NZ, That locks a $100m+ midweek matching OW. 2nd weekend should also clear $100m.

$300-310m 10 day total on Sunday

$400m locked.  I still like $500m

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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maoyan updated Ne zha liftime forecast 4.19B

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Actuals:

Monday: 187m

Tuesday: 193m

 

Official estimate for Wednesday: 190m (won't be surprised if the actual goes up)

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12 hours ago, a2k said:

Insane. CBO never ceases to throw a shocker. NZ gonna do close to 4x TLK.

I was so close to responding “maybe more like 5x.” And now...

10 minutes ago, Olive said:

maoyan updated Ne zha liftime forecast 4.19B

 

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4.19B seems really aggressive. Isn't that 608m USD? I'm with POTUS 500+ seems very doable

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22 minutes ago, Olive said:

maoyan updated Ne zha liftime forecast 4.19B

 

That’s approaching Endgame level. I’d be pretty surprised at over 3.6B

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23 minutes ago, Olive said:

maoyan updated Ne zha liftime forecast 4.19B

Thats $609m

Its not doing over $600m!!

 

 

 

 

Just kidding, anything is possible in CBO!

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Yeah, that would be really huge, and Maoyan forecast is... not always reliable. Shouldn’t let it distract from 3B being great — but these weekdays have been really out there. Until it starts actually dropping there’s  a lot of uncertainty.

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I guess that Ne Zha's forecast will not be more trustable until we see The Bravest's real impact. The initial forecast for it is "just" 1.165b, but still with a 9.6 rate in Maoyan.

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4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, that would be really huge, and Maoyan forecast is... not always reliable. Shouldn’t let it distract from 3B being great — but these weekdays have been really out there. Until it starts actually dropping there’s  a lot of uncertainty.

The trouble with projecting too high on the current dailies is that demand burn can kick in any day.  WW2 looked like it was going pass SW7 domestic total and after 15 days of great holds it then normalized in one day (-15%) w/o warning.  $500m looks good.  Need to see this weekend and tuesday's hold to be confident with $600m

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5 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

The trouble with projecting too high on the current dailies is that demand burn can kick in any day.  WW2 looked like it was going pass SW7 domestic total and after 15 days of great holds it then normalized in one day (-15%) w/o warning.  $500m looks good.  Need to see this weekend and tuesday's hold to be confident with $600m

Yeah, that’s exactly what I was trying to say, just put better 😛      

 

It’s part of that movie pattern where it drifts on for a bit being crazy, but that sort of thing has to come to an end eventually, and often does so abruptly — but trying to pick out in advance what day normalization will occur is a fool’s errand. We’ll just have to be patient, but the floor creeps up a bit each day without a sign of normalization.

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