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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread (2019 the worst year for HLW)

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I'm not convinced Avatar 2 will have the same effect. They waited way too long to make it and basically very little innovation will be present in the film.

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1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:

What is the best legs in China so far?

Small openers like Zoo and Dangal were 15x+ OW

WW2 was a big anticipated opener and did over 6x.

TF4 was able to do 3x but there were a lot less screens.

I cant think of a big HLWD film doing over 3 in the last 3 years

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3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Small openers like Zoo and Dangal were 15x+ OW

WW2 was a big anticipated opener and did over 6x.

TF4 was able to do 3x but there were a lot less screens.

I cant think of a big HLWD film doing over 3 in the last 3 years

So all movies which have more than 3x legs so far are local and indian movies

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2 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

After seeing what EG did, I think $350m+ OW is possible with more screens

EG had ¥50 ATP. Not gonna happen. Besides ER has dumped by 12%.

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1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I cant think of a big HLWD film doing over 3 in the last 3 years

Aquaman 3.1x.

Ready Player One 3.56x.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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Endgame 5 days + Midnights 42.8mn admits & ¥2.24Bn gross. Taking best 3 days will be 33mn admits & ¥1.7Bn admits.

 

Monster Hunt 2 3 days were 30.5mn admits but ¥1.2B gross only.

 

$350mn will need ¥2.45Bn or 60mn admits. Impossible I must say as with 220k plus shows daily Wandering Earth & Crazy Alien had just 38mn admits over holiday FSS.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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5 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

ae5eec40bd3b84b4410e816f8ba8845ac5f6b5a1

 

 

Green line :huglove:   
 

But, onto actually relevant matters, the short PS window for DC3 is quite evident in its slope. As I said 2 days ago, should easily finish 2nd in PS only to Endgame.    
 

Very curious to see how many days it takes to become the top 2020 release WW (2?) and how long it holds onto the title (until early April?).

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8 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Open Avatar 2 on Monday, there is your $350 OW ;) 

That would need ~55mn plus admits as well or avg of 8mn a day. EG averaged 8.2 for 5 days & extra 6 hours. Don't think Avatar can get that front-loaded ness from fans.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

That would need ~55mn plus admits as well or avg of 8mn a day. EG averaged 8.2 for 5 days & extra 6 hours. Don't think Avatar can get that front-loaded ness from fans.

Maybe Cameron can pump that ATP up a little with revolutionary ULTRA-IMAX :P    

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14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

EG had ¥50 ATP. Not gonna happen. Besides ER has dumped by 12%.

If it has the hype that some think, ¥50ATP could happen for OW. Why not?

ER has just strengthened by 13% or at about the same level when EG came out

14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Aquaman 3.1x.

Ready Player One 3.56x.

AQM was a great run,  had holiday help and wasn't an anticipated sequel. 

RPO big but not huge. But nice memory on over 3x

14 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Endgame 5 days + Midnights 42.8mn admits & ¥2.24Bn gross. Taking best 3 days will be 33mn admits & ¥1.7Bn admits.

 

Monster Hunt 2 3 days were 30.5mn admits but ¥1.2B gross only.

 

$350mn will need ¥2.45Bn or 60mn admits. Impossible I must say as with 220k plus shows daily Wandering Earth & Crazy Alien had just 38mn admits over holiday FSS.

Best 3 days would be larger if EG was a Friday open, add 10%, 36m adm. EG was 20m longer than A1.  If A2 is same as A1, more shows, add 15% more, 42m adm.

15% more screens take it to 48m adm.

 

WE & CA opened when there was 60k screens and a low ATP. I assume 80k screens and high ATP when A2 opens.

 

A1 was 4 quad. EG wasnt. All demos on full throttle could fill the the addition shows at a high ATP and PTA. 

48m adm at ¥50 = ¥2.4b =$351m is possible.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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On 1/20/2020 at 3:57 PM, TigerPaw said:

3 of the CNY releases moving up by 1 day.

Probably very confident of their quality, but then by releasing 1 day earlier, they may potentially lose showtimes to the “Newer” releases on CNY day itself.

 

Not sure whether this is the right move for them.

I am not sure whether this is the right move either. so bold, unprecedentsl a move.

On 1/20/2020 at 4:05 PM, POTUS 2020 said:

The day before is the worst BO day of the year. I thought it was more of a family/home celebration day/eve. Like xmas eve is a slower day in domestic.

Bad move like you said. Plenty of money to be made over 12 days

CNY eve is indeed more of a family/home celebration day/eve.

 

These movies are just too scaried of DC3. They are probably behaving out of mind due to panic.

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2 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

If A2 is same as A1, more shows, add 15% more, 42m adm.

15% more screens take it to 48m adm.

More shows and more screens doesn't mean more admits especially because most shows will be added pre noon and evening times for big films as they already have bulk of prime shows. Also occupancies are around 30-50% with 200k plus shows, so its not like they are overflowing. Add 15% more screens and 15% shows, they might not even add 5% more audiences.

 

Fate of the furious did 13mn admits on Saturday with 179k shows, doesn't mean it can do 22mn on 300k shows which 15% more screens & 15% more screens on Endgame will mean. IMO A2 will be lucky to hit 13mn on 300k shows, if it get those.

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31 minutes ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

I am not sure whether this is the right move either. so bold, unprecedentsl a move.

CNY eve is indeed more of a family/home celebration day/eve.

 

These movies are just too scaried of DC3. They are probably behaving out of mind due to panic.

They should know better. There is potentially ¥9b/$1.3+ to be had in 12 days and beyond if its good and leggy.

We have see 3rd to 5th place films on OD go on to lead by day 3 or 4 and win the holiday. DC3s dailies could crash 20%  like MH2 while another increases by 20% like ORS. Even if DC3 held well and did 4b, that leaves 4-5b up for grabs.

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53 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

More shows and more screens doesn't mean more admits especially because most shows will be added pre noon and evening times for big films as they already have bulk of prime shows. Also occupancies are around 30-50% with 200k plus shows, so its not like they are overflowing. Add 15% more screens and 15% shows, they might not even add 5% more audiences.

 

Fate of the furious did 13mn admits on Saturday with 179k shows, doesn't mean it can do 22mn on 300k shows which 15% more screens & 15% more screens on Endgame will mean. IMO A2 will be lucky to hit 13mn on 300k shows, if it get those.

Perhap we make a wager when/if the day comes, if I'm still alive.😂 could be another decade or two and a $700m OW

 

Titanic (14 year old rerelease) and A1 were huge. We could see serious Cameron hype. If its good we should see something anomolous.

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Perhap we make a wager when/if the day comes, if I'm still alive.😂 could be another decade or two and a $700m OW

Yeah at some point its bound to happen with inflation but point is at some point number of screens adding up isn't really pushing gross as much.

 

In India biggest weekend for a Bollywood film in 2002 was 4mn admits on 500 screens or 6k shows. Today it's 9mn approx on 4500 screens or 70k shows.

 

Shows increased to 11.5 times but admits are just about 2.25 times.

 

A more recent comp would be with 2013 record was with the film having 10mn admits on 3300 screens 50k shows. So weekend admits are in fact stagnant in span of 40% extra shows.

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3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Yeah at some point its bound to happen with inflation but point is at some point number of screens adding up isn't really pushing gross as much.

 

In India biggest weekend for a Bollywood film in 2002 was 4mn admits on 500 screens or 6k shows. Today it's 9mn approx on 4500 screens or 70k shows.

 

Shows increased to 11.5 times but admits are just about 2.25 times.

 

A more recent comp would be with 2013 record was with the film having 10mn admits on 3300 screens 50k shows. So weekend admits are in fact stagnant in span of 40% extra shows.

I agree that total grosses are topping out regardless of screen additions as explained in my china passing domestic thread. But OWs have increased. 

TF4 had a high PTA OW and made $100m(24k screens). It went on to 3.2x OW to $320m in 2014.

FF8 made $200m OW with a similar ATP with double the screens(50k) and shows. But then did just 2x OW.

OW up, OWm down.

EG made $218m its first 3 days. It would have been $275m if it was a Fri OD. It was at a higher ATP, but that might have reduced admissions.

If A2 is destined to do $700m(based on EG, WW2 and love of Jimbo films) , then with 80k+ screens, 60% more than FF8, and with a higher ATP, then $350m OW is doable.

I believe they will continue to price hike hyped movies after it worked with EG.

Anyone know what they are charging for DC3?

 

Edited by POTUS 2020

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7 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

They should know better. There is potentially ¥9b/$1.3+ to be had in 12 days and beyond if its good and leggy.

We have see 3rd to 5th place films on OD go on to lead by day 3 or 4 and win the holiday. DC3s dailies could crash 20%  like MH2 while another increases by 20% like ORS. Even if DC3 held well and did 4b, that leaves 4-5b up for grabs.

LEAP and LOST IN RUSSIA should have good WOM, opening a day early could help them get a strong audience rating sooner which would help them climb the daily box office faster than ORS. In the past, opening your film ahead of CNY was a sign of weak product, but I think that will change going forward... We'll see though.  

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