China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i dont think that it will shit just bc it wont match 2019 , imo this year is a more intresting one

It’ll probably be one of the worst years of the past dozen relative to the global market potential, not just vs 2019. Might have a better quality of films, who knows. Might be more interesting to follow from a BO perspective, who knows. But from a simple perspective of how much money people spend on tickets this year... things just went from bad to worse.

[john2000]

46 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’ll probably be one of the worst years of the past dozen relative to the global market potential, not just vs 2019. Might have a better quality of films, who knows. Might be more interesting to follow from a BO perspective, who knows. But from a simple perspective of how much money people spend on tickets this year... things just went from bad to worse.

i just dont think that people should push the panic button

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

i just dont think that people should push the panic button

Disney will be -$1.5B atleast from 2019. Let's see how NA fulfill the void.

[pepsa]

3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’ll probably be one of the worst years of the past dozen relative to the global market potential, not just vs 2019. Might have a better quality of films, who knows. Might be more interesting to follow from a BO perspective, who knows. But from a simple perspective of how much money people spend on tickets this year... things just went from bad to worse.

Tbh in the domistic market we don't have to see a drop, last years we had the biggest blockbusters ever, we had them left and right every month one and we coudn't even increase year to year. The shows the strenght of midle and small movies. If we get a few mid size hits like Badboys, 1917 etc this year won't be down alot year to year.

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

Disney will be -$1.5B atleast from 2019. Let's see how NA fulfill the void.

All other studios are going to increase a lot. Specially WB. 

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’ll probably be one of the worst years of the past dozen relative to the global market potential, not just vs 2019. Might have a better quality of films, who knows. Might be more interesting to follow from a BO perspective, who knows. But from a simple perspective of how much money people spend on tickets this year... things just went from bad to worse.

Nature and human nature don't like a vacuum.  After July censorship of big releases we saw NZ triple the toon record and the Oct holiday doubled its record.  The moviegoers of next week planning to spend over $1b will go go later in time.  I bet we see monthly records set in March and April.

 

corona concern time 

Here's a social media braggart that needed to eat in a michelin restaurant. With wealthy idiots like this, it'll spread a bit. Stay indoors, stream....

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1231898/coronavirus-latest-chinese-woman-france-sneaked-in-infected-corona-virus-wuhan-weibo

‘She’s a TIMEBOMB’ Chinese woman hides Coronavirus to enter France - and brags online

A CHINESE woman who knew she was infected with the deadly coronavirus has disguised her symptoms by deliberately taking antipyretics and successfully boarded a plane to France. She then bragged about her actions online in photographs with friends she met on arrival, according to Chinese media sources.

She posted: "Finally, I can have a good meal, it feels like I have been starving for two days. In a city of global delicacies, of course we have to eat food with Michelin Stars. 

Cheers!

 

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is good. I hope WHO can confirm things are under control. It will take weeks(even months) before we know for sure. Plus hoping for vaccination to be available so that we dont have to worry about getting infected. World is highly connected and so there is someone directly/indirectly in contact with affected folks. I live in bay area which has a huge chinese population who will travel back post CNY. I am sure all airports globally will have checks before letting people fly. 

 

That is why despite being movie forum concern should be not on BO but containment of this epidemic. 

Well, the BO will be zero for a while and since this your second concern post, let's address it.

As you all know I like to track and project BO even though I don't even watch most of these movies.

I have been tracking the Mexican beer virus to replace CBO since I too don't like a vacuum and don't watch porn to keep me occupied.  

Reported cases

T    270

W   420

Th  570

F    800

So its about doubling every 2 days.  It either slows and stops like sars or CBO or

30 days    32m  people, not yuan, not dollars for those that always ask . (like 1918 flu)  stay indoors 

40 days    1b (like black plague, 14th century) go to a remote island

48 days    everyone (Revelation, predicted in 50ad)  too late

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by POTUS 2020

[A Marvel Fanboy]

donot trust the reported cases.

 

A whole province (50m+ people) would not be locked down if there were only a few hundred cases.

 

90%+ cases are not hospitaled because there are not enough medical resource.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

donot trust the reported cases.

 

A whole province (50m+ people) would not be locked down if there were only a few hundred cases.

 

90%+ cases are not hospitaled because there are not enough medical resource.

China has infamous track record of covering up the actual number of cases during SARS breakout. Look like they did it again.

 

The outbreak is starting to lose control. Instead of tracking box office number during CNY, people are tracking number of cases 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

China has infamous track record of covering up the actual number of cases during SARS breakout. Look like they did it again.

 

The outbreak is starting to lose control. Instead of tracking box office number during CNY, people are tracking number of cases 

this time, it is much worse than SARS.

 

already out of control

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

[POTUS 2020]

8 hours ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

donot trust the reported cases.

 

A whole province (50m+ people) would not be locked down if there were only a few hundred cases.

 

90%+ cases are not hospitaled because there are not enough medical resource.

Yes. Its probably worse than reported. 

But we can only track whats reported.

A rumor has it at 7000.

4 hours ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

this time, it is much worse than SARS.

 

already out of control

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

Its spreading far faster than sars. That was 8000 reported infected over 6 months.

It has more than doubled in the last 2 day again, 1300.  I see more shut downs coming including all travel out of china.

CBO down for at least a month as this rate will take a few weeks to slow at a minimum

Reported cases

T    270

W   420

Th  570

F    800

S  1300

 

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Reported cases

T    270

W   420

Th  570

F    800

S  1300

Bigger jump on Saturday than the trend of 2x day before previous day. 

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Bigger jump on Saturday than the trend of 2x day before previous day. 

Yup. Lets look at percentages

T    270

W   420  +55%

T    570  +36%   2day +111%

F    800  +40%   2 day +90%

S  1300  +62%  2 day +128%

 

The problem will be as it grows they may not be able to test it fast enough. 

If it quadruples in 3 to 4 days and spreads to more countries, buy groceries, 2 months supply.

 

It hit Nepal, too close India and a massive population less able to deal with it than China.

Real time map

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Edited January 25, 2020 by POTUS 2020

[stephanos13]

I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist. But come on... this at least deserves a look. This is from 2 years ago!

 

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

 

Quote

A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

12 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist. But come on... this at least deserves a look. This is from 2 years ago!

 

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

 

 

I atcually buy this conspiracy.

 

The question is, how the pathogen got leaked? on purpose or on accident.

 

For all the Chinese people, however, the best "truth" forever should be "someone ate a bat with coronavirus, shit happened".

 

If you understand China enough, you know that disasters like 02-SARS and 19-SARI are always bound to happen, just a matter of time. Because, wild animals always contain unknown deadly virus. And you cant stop people from eating these animals. People gonna eat. It is just a matter of time and probability that someday someone is gonna be effected by those viruses———this is true in every country of the world. In China, though, the government always try their best to cover the truth; they jail the heroes who spread the truth. When truth is covered, innocent people have no idea that the virus is so close to them that they take no protective action. In contrast, the government "convince" the people that everything is well by running the propaganda machine in full power. And people travel so much in mordern sociaty. An outbreak comes at a blink. And everything is too late.

 

The Great Leap, the Ukraine Famine..... Chernobyl, 2019-SARI ..... the greatest humanitarian disasters almost always happen/start in commnist/totalitarian nations, because they do the best at covering up the truth.

 

A threat to the world, not only necessarily means they make militory aggression to the world, but also means they spread potential humanitarian disasters (poverty and plague) to the world.

 

I pray that as few people as possible get hurt in this disaster.

 

[BoxOfficeZ]

TBF to China, it might not necessarily be a cover-up. The authorities might not have taken the virus seriously at first. Plus calculating on whether to make politically dangerous statements.

 

The problem in terms of image is that the outcome is the same, and just as damaging to public health. Either one is bad. 

[Madhuvan]

6 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

TBF to China, it might not necessarily be a cover-up. The authorities might not have taken the virus seriously at first. Plus calculating on whether to make politically dangerous statements.

 

The problem in terms of image is that the outcome is the same, and just as damaging to public health. Either one is bad. 

There is no politically dangerous statement in China. Government can do whatever they want. 

Most of the Chinese citizens are brainwashed to extreme. 

 

[Madhuvan]

18 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Yup. Lets look at percentages

T    270

W   420  +55%

T    570  +36%   2day +111%

F    800  +40%   2 day +90%

S  1300  +62%  2 day +128%

 

The problem will be as it grows they may not be able to test it fast enough. 

If it quadruples in 3 to 4 days and spreads to more countries, buy groceries, 2 months supply.

 

It hit Nepal, too close India and a massive population less able to deal with it than China.

Real time map

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

If virus spreads to India then everything is finished. 

India is not capable enough to deal with this kind of virus. 

Political outrage is already Killing the country. 

Most of the people in India will never take this virus seriously. 

I pray that this never happens. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

16 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

TBF to China, it might not necessarily be a cover-up. The authorities might not have taken the virus seriously at first. Plus calculating on whether to make politically dangerous statements.

 

The problem in terms of image is that the outcome is the same, and just as damaging to public health. Either one is bad. 

You do not understand how a communist/totalitarian nation works/can shape up to be, even if you are slightly politically pro socialism.

8 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

There is no politically dangerous statement in China. Government can do whatever they want. 

Most of the Chinese citizens are brainwashed to extreme. 

 

quite so

Edited January 26, 2020 by A Marvel Fanboy

[BoxOfficeZ]

Just now, A Marvel Fanboy said:

You do not understand how a communist/totalitarian nation works/can shape up to be if you are even slightly politically pro socialism.

quite so

I think you missed my point. They might have assumed the virus was just another one and didn't adequately inform Beijing till it was too late. In an authoritarian state you want to keep news to good news and hide the bad news. 

 

Of course shutting down cities might be China overcompensating after SARS but it also sends a clear message that they take this shit seriously and there's no way its only 2000 cases. They just announced a lockdown on a city in Guangdong 800km away from Wuhan! If things get out of hand there the electronics manufacturers worldwide who depend on workers there for parts and components will get nailed in markets and here comes recession.