China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[TigerPaw]

12 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

they need cash. There is no way they can keep thinking how to make more money. They have to think how to survive. So one of their event movies need to skip theaters. Because Mulan have no more marketing budget(thank to Disney's determination not pushing it back until the very last minute), putting this one on D+ become the best choice.

Yup I know. My previous reply was just a figure of speech - i am actually more concerned about Piracy.

They should release it in theaters internationally first, for at least 2 weeks before it hits Disney+ in the states. Not sure how many people will actually fork out $30 to watch it on Disney+.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yup I know. My previous reply was just a figure of speech - i am actually more concerned about Piracy.

They should release it in theaters internationally first, for at least 2 weeks before it hits Disney+ in the states. Not sure how many people will actually fork out $30 to watch it on Disney+.

Based on rumor China is opening before D+ release and so piracy should not be a big factor in the biggest market. How big China OD can be. Can it open to see 200m yuan? if re-releases can open to 50m, 200m should not be far fetched with a wider release ( 150K+ shows). Both Mulan and Tenet need good China numbers for figurative purpose(not so horrible WW gross). Mulan should benefit from Asian markets being relatively in good shape compared to US/Europe/Latam

[TigerPaw]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

They are sitting on a 200m budget film ready for release with already spent marketing dollars. How long can they wait. They had to decide to release at some point. Disney has been among the worst hit companies in this epidemic. Theme Park is their biggest revenue driver and that has had disastrous impact, live sports also was lost and that affected them and now they are not able to release their big budget movies. I guess they decided to make a Guinea pig of Mulan to see how much they can make from DTH. if its successful they might retry with BW especially with COVID not going away this year. Or go with Tenet route of having partial theatrical release and move on to D+ within few weeks of release. Box office will not recover to pre COVID levels for a long time. 

 

Wallstreet has taken this postively as their stock is up 8% post their worst earnings in a long time. 

Yes I know, but a >200m guinea pig? And such a sudden announcement?

The concern here is piracy, they should release it in theaters internationally at least 2 weeks before Disney+ release...

 

South East Asian cinema chains broke the news yesterday that the movie will be released early Sep in theaters, and comments were all about watching it online (torrenting), because there is no Disney+ in Asia. 
 

i am not surprised about the decision to be on Disney+, I am surprised about the day-and-date release with international theaters... and piracy online.
 

They should have tested it with New Mutants. This was potentially a billion dollar grosser, we cannot just look at the Budget, we have to look a the potential revenues as well.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yes I know, but a >200m guinea pig? And such a sudden announcement?

The concern here is piracy, they should release it in theaters internationally at least 2 weeks before Disney+ release...

 

South East Asian cinema chains broke the news yesterday that the movie will be released early Sep in theaters, and comments were all about watching it online (torrenting), because there is no Disney+ in Asia. 
 

i am not surprised about the decision to be on Disney+, I am surprised about the day-and-date release with international theaters... and piracy online.
 

They should have tested it with New Mutants. This was potentially a billion dollar grosser, we cannot just look at the Budget, we have to look a the potential revenues as well.

As I posted earlier, they had already spent a lot on marketing early this year including Superbowl spot which at this point has limited value. Disney has 64B in debt including 10B+ short term debt. So they will try to augument revenue in short term while rest of their business line is hit. Starting next year hopefully post vaccination, I am expecting Disney to come back big time on all their business line. 

 

This was line of least resistance that does not add any more cost. They probably are focusing on BW which needs another media push starting October(though they might delay marketing based on how things are at that point). if BO is meh they could even decide to push this to Feb and Eternals to May and Shang Chi to summer. Could be a big year with 4 MCU movies next year. 

[TigerPaw]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Based on rumor China is opening before D+ release and so piracy should not be a big factor in the biggest market. How big China OD can be. Can it open to see 200m yuan? if re-releases can open to 50m, 200m should not be far fetched with a wider release ( 150K+ shows). Both Mulan and Tenet need good China numbers for figurative purpose(not so horrible WW gross). Mulan should benefit from Asian markets being relatively in good shape compared to US/Europe/Latam

You have no idea how big of a Star Donnie Yen and Jet Li are... outside of China, in many other parts of Asia.

 

While Liu Yifei and Gong Li’s appeal is mainly in China, I cannot say the same about the male stars...

 

Piracy will impact greatly 

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I posted earlier, they had already spent a lot on marketing early this year including Superbowl spot which at this point has limited value. Disney has 64B in debt including 10B+ short term debt. So they will try to augument revenue in short term while rest of their business line is hit. Starting next year hopefully post vaccination, I am expecting Disney to come back big time on all their business line. 

 

This was line of least resistance that does not add any more cost. They probably are focusing on BW which needs another media push starting October(though they might delay marketing based on how things are at that point). if BO is meh they could even decide to push this to Feb and Eternals to May and Shang Chi to summer. Could be a big year with 4 MCU movies next year. 

I understand and I don’t disagree; but the potential downside here is so much bigger than the potential upside.

 

Disney has so many other films to experiment with...

 

Once again it is the suddenness, if they announce that it will be on 1) Disney+ in October and 2) release in worldwide theaters in September first, that will be much more appealing to people who are planning to go to theaters. 

[charlie Jatinder]

40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How big China OD can be. Can it open to see 200m yuan? if re-releases can open to 50m, 200m should not be far fetched with a wider release ( 150K+ shows)

200mn OD is big and I think slightly impossible.

You basically need 5.7mn admits for 200mn, on 150k shows, that means 27% occupancy. The films like Far From Home opened with 24% occupancy, or for that matter, Endgame 35% in normalcy, expecting 27% now with seating limitations is bit too much I guess.

 

I think 90-120mn will be a good result of Mulan. Weekdays holds so far we have seen are better than normal, so long run is more likely.

[TigerPaw]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

200mn OD is big and I think slightly impossible.

You basically need 5.7mn admits for 200mn, on 150k shows, that means 27% occupancy. The films like Far From Home opened with 24% occupancy, or for that matter, Endgame 35% in normalcy, expecting 27% now with seating limitations is bit too much I guess.

 

I think 90-120mn will be a good result of Mulan. Weekdays holds so far we have seen are better than normal, so long run is more likely.

Ya and I feel that the long run will be impacted by

1) Piracy (Disney's own doing putting it on Disney+ elsewhere within a few days);and

2) Tenet.

 

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Ya and I feel that the long run will be impacted by

1) Piracy (Disney's own doing putting it on Disney+ elsewhere within a few days);and

2) Tenet.

 

They almost don't care about piracy or those markets which keep theatrical runs. Their goal is 10-12% D+ users will pay it, helping them cover the production budget(60M * 10-12% * $30 = $180-216M). So box office no matter higher or low can be seen as net profits. Would this approach be successful? They don't know. But they have no patience for releasing it when everything go right.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Ya and I feel that the long run will be impacted by

1) Piracy (Disney's own doing putting it on Disney+ elsewhere within a few days);and

2) Tenet.

 

I mean China has shown good numbers for old and delayed releases including likes of Venom, Hobbs and Shaw, etc. so I am not worried much about there.

 

Regarding rest of South East Asia, Peninsula has done well in theaters and Mulan will release in theaters for countries without Disney+ so I guess it will be fine.

 

Besides, if Mulan pulls of 6-7mn downloads in USA and other rich western countries, I think it will be fine for Disney, with about $30-60mn revenue from China and other South East Asia countries and TV revenue worldwide.

[xiazhi]

14 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

I am also freaking pissed at the decision. No idea what Disney is thinking.

I guess Disney cares more about what Wall Street think than what China think. Both very important tho.

[TigerPaw]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean China has shown good numbers for old and delayed releases including likes of Venom, Hobbs and Shaw, etc. so I am not worried much about there.

 

Regarding rest of South East Asia, Peninsula has done well in theaters and Mulan will release in theaters for countries without Disney+ so I guess it will be fine.

 

Besides, if Mulan pulls of 6-7mn downloads in USA and other rich western countries, I think it will be fine for Disney, with about $30-60mn revenue from China and other South East Asia countries and TV revenue worldwide.

I genuinely hope so. But i think you may be too optimistic here.

Penisular almost had 0 competition, and numbers is considered good for an Asian film, not a Hollywood tentpole.

 Mulan is going against Tenet. We have no idea whether the current market place across many regions can handle two tentpole releases specially with cinema capacity being halfed or less

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Penisular almost had 0 competition, and numbers is considered good for an Asian film, not a Hollywood tentpole.

Doing about 12mn in Taiwan, 4mn in Vietnam is good for any Hollywood big film. 

[TigerPaw]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Doing about 12mn in Taiwan, 4mn in Vietnam is good for any Hollywood big film. 

Korean films usually do well in Taiwan.. and also almost no competition..

Plus there is no HD torrent for this film as of right now. I am working with the US distributor (WellGoUSA) on the piracy of this film... so i know only CAM version is available. If there is HD version of movies out there, the impact on box office is not to be understimated.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Korean films usually do well in Taiwan.. and also almost no competition..

Peninsula is going to be highest grosser in Taiwan from Korea.

 

Sure Piracy will impact Mulan but then as everyone said Disney need money.

Edited August 6, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[TigerPaw]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Peninsula is going to be highest grosser in Taiwan from Korea.

Yes. Almost no competition as i said, and no actual piracy in terms of HD version...

 

You cannot assume it is the same when another movie will be facing much stiffer competition as well as HD Piracy being released on the same date...

 

It is not apples to apples comparison.

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Peninsula is going to be highest grosser in Taiwan from Korea.

 

Sure Piracy will impact Mulan but then as everyone said Disney need money.

We all know Disney need money. That is not the point we are saying here. I just said the release is too sudden, plus will be good if they have AT LEAST 2 - 3 weeks buffer between international theatrical release before Disney + release.

 

I am not saying Disney+ release is bad, i am saying the buffer time is too short...

[TigerPaw]

23 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

I guess Disney cares more about what Wall Street think than what China think. Both very important tho.

If Mulan's box office tanks in China and Asia because of piracy and the sudden release, you will see how Wall Street really reacts...

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[Madhuvan]

This is a live action remake.

 

I don't think piracy effect will be that big. 

[xiazhi]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

If Mulan's box office tanks in China and Asia because of piracy and the sudden release, you will see how Wall Street really reacts...

New things are always risky and it can go either way. But Wall Street really like it so far.