China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

how are the presales ?

Not even 50% of saturdays presales

[Legion Again]

Sun PS are trash, have been thinking ¥180 or so for a while now

Edited May 22, 2021 by WandaLegion

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Sun PS are trash, have been thinking ¥180 or so for a while now

that would give an ow at around 135 mill i think ,lets see

[john2000]

by the way, we should hear something about black widows release date by early june right ?

 

@Gavin Feng

Edited May 22, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

Maoyan has Sun at 182, then adding 3.9x the Sun off a 56 Mon. Strikes me as pretty optimistic even without much competition to speak of.

Edited May 22, 2021 by WandaLegion

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Maoyan has Sun at 182, then adding 3.9x the Sun off a 56 Mon. Strikes me as pretty optimistic even without much competition to speak of.

Is sub-$200 mil total possible?

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is sub-$200 mil total possible?

i guess but its too early to tell dont you think ? i personally dont think so, the wom is not good but i dont think is that poor that will result a total of less than 200, but lets wait to see the dailies

Edited May 22, 2021 by john2000

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is sub-$200 mil total possible?

If there was normal Hollywood scheduling, then Yes. Now I think low competition won't allow it.

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is sub-$200 mil total possible?

Hmmm, that’s like ¥1287 at current ERs.  
 

Th-Fr-Sat is already 681. Assuming it adds 3x Sunday (could beat this given lack of competition) would need Sun coming in at like ¥152. Doesn’t really seem possible, with final PS of 36.5 or so it should at least hit ¥165. I guess you could get there with a 166 Sun and adding 2.65x, but that would be really weak legs and don’t really see it.
 

ER situation will be what saves it from missing $200M.

Edited May 22, 2021 by WandaLegion

[charlie Jatinder]

I take it my theory of Hobbs and Shaw not too far away from the actual level of Furious main saga film as opening in almost all markets is par or less H&S.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I take it my theory of Hobbs and Shaw not too far away from the actual level of Furious main saga film as opening in almost all markets is par or less H&S.

Could be, maybe just F7 spiked due to Paul Walker's death, F8 got the afterglow of the big success, and now the franchise came back to earth.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I take it my theory of Hobbs and Shaw not too far away from the actual level of Furious main saga film as opening in almost all markets is par or less H&S.

only fast 7 and 8 hit 1 billion, and those were overperformances it seems , not the actual baseline of these films

Edited May 22, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Menor said:

Could be, maybe just F7 spiked due to Paul Walker's death, F8 got the afterglow of the big success, and now the franchise came back to earth.

This seems pretty compatible with Jat’s sentiment, no? If mainline films post 8 are coming back to earth at 850M or something (in normalcy) then it’s true H&S was performing at mainline level.

Edited May 22, 2021 by WandaLegion

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Could be, maybe just F7 spiked due to Paul Walker's death, F8 got the afterglow of the big success, and now the franchise came back to earth.

At least in China, the presales (even OD to a certain extend) show the hype is still there but WoM cannot follow up.

 

Came back down to earth because of WoM...

[TigerPaw]

On 5/21/2021 at 4:51 PM, Borobudur said:

F&F didn't really try to woo Chinese. Their casting choice, setting and plot, do almost nothing pandering as chinese-friendly but they managed to consistently attract audience in China.

Didn't try to woo? Haha.

 

Not sure about that; they have always taken Chinese market as a big deal.

 

1) They thought casting John Cena and making him do numerous promotional videos in Mandarin would help. 

2) Also for this release, they cooked up some news about the cast facing some death threat and hence the Chinese press conference was cancelled; this cooked-up news was trending on weibo and definitely increase the awareness of the movie release.

 

You can ask @Gavin Fengwhether the 2 points I brought up happened. Haha.

 

 

[Legion Again]

Yeah if this had a 9.3 or something (like F8) we wouldn’t be talking about low 200s it would be going to 300+ easy.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

This seems pretty compatible with Jat’s sentiment, no? If mainline films post 8 are coming back to earth at 850M or something (in normalcy) then it’s true H&S was performing at mainline level.

Yeah I was agreeing with him.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

At least in China, the presales (even OD to a certain extend) show the hype is still there but WoM cannot follow up.

 

Came back down to earth because of WoM...

Even OD or PS weren't all that big. There is massive ticket price increase since 2019, that is inflating the grosses a lot for a good comparison.

 

Hobbs and Shaw had 1.8M admits in pre-sales for OD while F9 had 2.6M, as compared to 4.3M of FF8. Friday admits are 7.7M, while H&S were 6.9M and FF8 11.5M. 

 

On top of that ER has improved 10% too. In 2019, F9 would have had $41M Friday while now its $49M.

[Legion Again]

Title - Maoyan - Mon multi

F6 (summer) - 9.3 - 7.2x

F7 (Sun release) - 9.6 - 10.8x

F8 - 9.3 - 8.1x

H&S (summer) - 8.6 - 8.0x

TF5 (summer) - 7.5 - 8.0x
 

So if F9 goes 170 Sun for 855 wknd, then 50*8, that is 1255 would miss $200M. It’s not as impossible as I said this morning @lorddemaxus. Though I’d still bet over on even odds.

Edited May 23, 2021 by WandaLegion

[charlie Jatinder]

And crash it did. Seems like ¥170M Sunday.

 

Yes. It can miss $200M.