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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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Title    OW Pre-sale / OW BO     Multiples(Total / OW)

AQM    10%    

RAGNAROK    12%    2.05

VENOM    14%    2.42

JL    14%    2

HOMECOMING    14%    1.67

GOTG2    15%    2

AMATW    16%    1.79

CW    18%    1.98

BP    19%    1.57

IW    32%    1.88

 

Easy to see how great the WOM is for AQM.

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It should crawl over 220m after 10pm

PS for tomorrow will get over 11.  I believe Vm PS was 11 for monday.  The PS multi should be higher for Aq as its been thru the weekend

I think it will fall between 88-99m at 8-9xPS.

Here is projection below. I went low with 90m for tomorrow.  Without FB2 type competition that Vm had it should hold better through the next 2 weeks

Aq         6.87 Vm       6.94 IW       6.35 Aq vs Aq vs
Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Vm IW
Fri 157     165 24 223     239 34 387     447 70 -74 -282
Sat 265 69.0%   430 63 303 35.9%   542 78 493 27.5%   940 148 -113 -511
Sun 220 -16.8%   650 95 224 -26.1%   766 110 332 -32.8%   1272 200 -117 -622
Mon 90 -59.1%   740 108 90 -59.8%   856 123 109 -67.1%   1381 217 -117 -641
Tues 81 -10.0%   821 119 80 -11.1%   936 135 81 -25.7%   1462 230 -116 -641
Wed 73 -9.9%   894 130 69 -13.8%   1005 145 65 -20.0%   1526 240 -112 -633
Thur 65 -11.0%   959 140 62 -10.1%   1067 154 53 -19.0%   1579 249 -109 -620
                                   
Fri 90 38.5% -42.5% 1049 153 85 37.1% -61.9% 1152 166 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 -104 -602
Sat 182 102.2% -31.2% 1231 179 162 90.6% -46.5% 1314 189 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 -84 -562
Sun 130 -28.6% -40.9% 1361 198 109 -32.7% -51.3% 1423 205 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 -63 -564
Mon 44 -66.2% -51.1% 1405 204 35.6 -67.3% -60.4% 1459 210 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 -54 -551
Tue 39 -11.4% -51.9% 1444 210 30.5 -14.3% -61.9% 1489 215 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 -46 -538
Wed 35 -10.3% -52.1% 1479 215 26.6 -12.8% -61.4% 1516 218 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 -37 -524
Thu 32 -8.6% -50.8% 1511 220 23.7 -10.9% -61.8% 1539 222 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 -29 -510
                                   
Fri 43 34.4% -52.2% 1554 226 31.1 31.2% -63.4% 1571 226 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 -17 -490
Sat 90 109.3% -50.5% 1644 239 61.5 97.7% -62.0% 1632 235 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 12 -451
Sun 63 -30.0% -51.5% 1707 248 43.2 -29.8% -60.4% 1675 241 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 31 -428
Mon 22 -65.1% -50.0% 1729 252 14.4 -66.7% -59.6% 1690 243 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 39 -418
Tue 19 -13.6% -51.3% 1748 254 13.0 -9.7% -57.4% 1703 245 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 45 -410
Wed 17 -10.5% -51.4% 1765 257 12.0 -7.7% -54.9% 1715 247 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 50 -404
Thu 15.2 -10.6% -52.5% 1780 259 11.3 -5.8% -52.3% 1726 249 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 54 -401
                                   
Fri 16 5.3% -62.8% 1796 261 18.1 60.2% -41.8% 1744 251 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 52 -420
Sat 35 118.8% -61.1% 1831 266 40.0 121.0% -35.0% 1784 257 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 47 -416
Sun 35 0.0% -44.4% 1866 272 27.5 -31.3% -36.3% 1812 261 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 54 -405
NYE 45 28.6% 104.5% 1911 278 9.3 -66.2% -35.4% 1821 262 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 90 -367
NYD 40 -11.1% 110.5% 1951 284 8.2 -11.8% -36.9% 1829 264 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 122 -336
Wed 9 -77.5% -47.1% 1960 285 7.8 -4.9% -35.0% 1837 265 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 123 -336
Thu 8 -11.1% -47.4% 1968 286 7.3 -6.4% -35.4% 1844 266 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 124 -336
                                   
BB od 5 -37.5% -68.8% 1973 287 2.1 -71.2% -88.4% 1846 266 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 127 -339
Sat 12 140.0% -65.7% 1985 289 4.7 123.8% -88.3% 1851 267 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 134 -345
Sun 9 -25.0% -74.3% 1994 290 3.7 -21.3% -86.5% 1855 267 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 139 -352
        2030 295       1872 270       2390 376 158 -360
                                   

 

 

 

Edited by POTUS
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3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

It should crawl over 220m after 10pm

PS for tomorrow will get over 11.  I believe Vm PS was 11 for monday.  The PS multi should be higher for Aq as its been thru the weekend

I think it will fall between 88-99m at 8-9xPS.

Here is projection below. I went low with 90m for tomorrow.  Without FB2 type competition that Vm had it should hold better through the next 2 weeks

Aq         6.87 Vm       6.94 IW       6.35 Aq vs Aq vs
Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Vm IW
Fri 157     165 24 223     239 34 387     447 70 -74 -282
Sat 265 69.0%   430 63 303 35.9%   542 78 493 27.5%   940 148 -113 -511
Sun 220 -16.8%   650 95 224 -26.1%   766 110 332 -32.8%   1272 200 -117 -622
Mon 90 -59.1%   740 108 90 -59.8%   856 123 109 -67.1%   1381 217 -117 -641
Tues 81 -10.0%   821 119 80 -11.1%   936 135 81 -25.7%   1462 230 -116 -641
Wed 73 -9.9%   894 130 69 -13.8%   1005 145 65 -20.0%   1526 240 -112 -633
Thur 65 -11.0%   959 140 62 -10.1%   1067 154 53 -19.0%   1579 249 -109 -620
                                   
Fri 90 38.5% -42.5% 1049 153 85 37.1% -61.9% 1152 166 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260 -104 -602
Sat 182 102.2% -31.2% 1231 179 162 90.6% -46.5% 1314 189 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282 -84 -562
Sun 130 -28.6% -40.9% 1361 198 109 -32.7% -51.3% 1423 205 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303 -63 -564
Mon 44 -66.2% -51.1% 1405 204 35.6 -67.3% -60.4% 1459 210 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308 -54 -551
Tue 39 -11.4% -51.9% 1444 210 30.5 -14.3% -61.9% 1489 215 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312 -46 -538
Wed 35 -10.3% -52.1% 1479 215 26.6 -12.8% -61.4% 1516 218 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315 -37 -524
Thu 32 -8.6% -50.8% 1511 220 23.7 -10.9% -61.8% 1539 222 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318 -29 -510
                                   
Fri 43 34.4% -52.2% 1554 226 31.1 31.2% -63.4% 1571 226 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322 -17 -490
Sat 90 109.3% -50.5% 1644 239 61.5 97.7% -62.0% 1632 235 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330 12 -451
Sun 63 -30.0% -51.5% 1707 248 43.2 -29.8% -60.4% 1675 241 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336 31 -428
Mon 22 -65.1% -50.0% 1729 252 14.4 -66.7% -59.6% 1690 243 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338 39 -418
Tue 19 -13.6% -51.3% 1748 254 13.0 -9.7% -57.4% 1703 245 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340 45 -410
Wed 17 -10.5% -51.4% 1765 257 12.0 -7.7% -54.9% 1715 247 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341 50 -404
Thu 15.2 -10.6% -52.5% 1780 259 11.3 -5.8% -52.3% 1726 249 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343 54 -401
                                   
Fri 16 5.3% -62.8% 1796 261 18.1 60.2% -41.8% 1744 251 35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349 52 -420
Sat 35 118.8% -61.1% 1831 266 40.0 121.0% -35.0% 1784 257 31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354 47 -416
Sun 35 0.0% -44.4% 1866 272 27.5 -31.3% -36.3% 1812 261 23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358 54 -405
NYE 45 28.6% 104.5% 1911 278 9.3 -66.2% -35.4% 1821 262 7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359 90 -367
NYD 40 -11.1% 110.5% 1951 284 8.2 -11.8% -36.9% 1829 264 8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360 122 -336
Wed 9 -77.5% -47.1% 1960 285 7.8 -4.9% -35.0% 1837 265 8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361 123 -336
Thu 8 -11.1% -47.4% 1968 286 7.3 -6.4% -35.4% 1844 266 7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363 124 -336
                                   
BB od 5 -37.5% -68.8% 1973 287 2.1 -71.2% -88.4% 1846 266 8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364 127 -339
Sat 12 140.0% -65.7% 1985 289 4.7 123.8% -88.3% 1851 267 18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367 134 -345
Sun 9 -25.0% -74.3% 1994 290 3.7 -21.3% -86.5% 1855 267 15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369 139 -352
        2030 295       1872 270       2390 376 158 -360
                                   

 

 

 

Thanks for the projection

 

I'm slightly confused by the regularity throughout Christmas though, does China not celebrate Christmas or does it just not affect BO? @Olive @Gavin Feng

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37 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Thanks for the projection

 

I'm slightly confused by the regularity throughout Christmas though, does China not celebrate Christmas or does it just not affect BO? @Olive @Gavin Feng

Christmas will have boost on BO even on weekdays, but no public holidays.

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41 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Thanks for the projection

 

I'm slightly confused by the regularity throughout Christmas though, does China not celebrate Christmas or does it just not affect BO? @Olive @Gavin Feng

coco last year

12.22  F     4m

12.23  S   18

12.24  S   19

12.25  M   5

12.26   T    3 

small affect the 24th and 25th. i'll adjust

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Sunday Estimates

Aquaman 221M/652m , -16.5% (Venom -26%)

Biggest OW for a DC movie

Biggest Sunday in DEC

Biggest OW in DEC

biggest opening Sat increase for Comicbook movies, usually around 35-40%

A Cool Fish 15.6M/746M, -20%

Ralph 2 7.4M/266.5M,-4%(will beat Finding Dory)

Einstein & Einstein 5.4M/20.2M, -4%

Venom 3.45M/1858M,-26.6%

Johnny English 3  1.7M/168M, -14%

Adrift 1.6M/8M, -36%

FB2 420k/398.1m

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