China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Lihongkim]

32 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

Crystal Liu and Kris Wu are definitely one of the prettiest pairings. But the movie itself seems to be an idol movie and that's a disadvantage when it's up against Cold War 2 with established actors and a known plot.

I don't like gangster movie unless my fav movie star was cast. But those 6 big guys are really something. It even casts Chow Yun Fat as the supporting role. That's huge. 

[TigerPaw]

28 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

I don't like gangster movie unless my fav movie star was cast. But those 6 big guys are really something. It even casts Chow Yun Fat as the supporting role. That's huge. 

Early reviews are underwhelming though. Reviews came out in Singapore today after yesterday's press screening. Also read reviews from Variety and Hollywood reporter, CW2 isn't good, but it will benefit from WOM of CW1.

[applek]

Never gone as a movie, I don't think Liu yifei has a very big draw looking at her past movies especially romance movies.  As for Kris his first movie was also a romance movie with the added benefit of a famous actress-director.  Also I don't know how well the young adult genre is doing this year.  Although it did quite well the past couple years it seems like the fad is slowly fading.  Anyways I don't think it will do spectacularly at the box office

[Olive]

 Liu yifei is box office poison.

[Polaroids]

Never Gone will still be a hit. Just how big of a hit is something that remains to be seen.

 

 

2 hours ago, Olive said:

 Liu yifei is box office poison.

 

It's not necessarily that she's box office poison, she's just chosen really bad projects with Korean leading men who aren't big names in China. Pairing up with Rain and her now boyfriend Song Seung Hyun in boring movies were not good career decisions.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Polaroids

[Fullbuster]

You want Disney to destroy every record in China? That would be easy : A live adaptation from its animated movie Mulan, similar to what they did with The Jungle Book

[POTUS 2020]

PS 24 hours before morning shows. They should double by tomorrow morning. PS multies should be between 2-3x unless they follow the recent pattern of HLWD movies which have been 3.5-4 time on a occasion

NG 25.7

CW2 19 slowing a little compared to NG

BF 15.4  closing the gap on the other two

 

Show count, adjustments still happening, holdovers will increase by 25-50% tomorrow

NG 30%

CW2 29%

BF 18.5

TMNT2 5.3%

Bounty Hunter 1.6

NYSM 1.1%

ID2 .06%

FD .02%

 

Any movie with good WoM should be able to hold shows next weekend. PS aren't indicating anything opening big. Tomorrows top 3 releases had 8m combined in PS last Thursday at 8 days out. Next Fridays top 3 have just 450K in PS

 

Edited July 7, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Lihongkim]

3 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

You want Disney to destroy every record in China? That would be easy : A live adaptation from its animated movie Mulan, similar to what they did with The Jungle Book

Mulan is Chinese. Disney should be very careful. If Mulan turns out to be white actress... 

 

3 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Any movie with good WoM should be able to hold shows next weekend. PS aren't indicating anything opening big. Tomorrows top 3 releases had 8m combined in PS last Thursday at 8 days out. Next Fridays top 3 have just 450K in PS

 

Next Fri openers are action/martial art movies with no big name stars. I'm sure it won't have big OW. It needs good wom to carry its leg. Only Super Bodyguard is in my list. 

 

This year, Chinese TV series is more impressive than movie tbh. 

[Olive]

Thursday est 
Turtles 24.7m/288M
Bounty Hunters 16.6M/194m
NYSM2 14M/604M
IDR  9.2M/484M
Anti-fan 4.6M/78.2m
DORY 2.4M/248M
WC 1.4M/1472M

-------------------------------------

Cold War 2 - Midnights 4M

Never Gone - Midnights 2.1M

Big Fish - 1.8M
 

[Olive]

Warcraft ends its run with 1472M, only 10M more than Avengers 2.

[NCsoft]

30 minutes ago, Olive said:

Warcraft ends its run with 1472M, only 10M more than Avengers 2.

Does that mean it made less in USD compared to AOU?

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Does that mean it made less in USD compared to AOU?

 

Yes, AOU made $240m

 

[TigerPaw]

54 minutes ago, Olive said:

Warcraft ends its run with 1472M, only 10M more than Avengers 2.

And no reports or anything about its alleged fraud? =(

Three ends its run today too right? almost hit 100m..

[Lihongkim]

Is Big Fish going to win this weekend?

[Olive]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

And no reports or anything about its alleged fraud? =(

Three ends its run today too right? almost hit 100m..

Nope..Still have very few showtimes, might make 10k ON Friday.

Total as of Thursday 99.72M 

[dxmatrixdt]

when dealing with the final total, are we supposed to divide by the current exchange rate??  or do you do it in increments during the various times the exchange rate changed during the run.  I think before the British divorce happened, the exchange rate was 6.55 and now it is 6.65.... 

[OncomingStorm93]

Warcraft's performance in China encouraged me to make a video essay detailing China's rapid growth in the global box office. Please enjoy my editorial, "China, Hollywood, & The Box Office Paradigm Shift":

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

11 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

when dealing with the final total, are we supposed to divide by the current exchange rate??  or do you do it in increments during the various times the exchange rate changed during the run.  I think before the British divorce happened, the exchange rate was 6.55 and now it is 6.65.... 

In general many outlets use the most recent XR out of laziness. But when it counts they use it incrementally. example, last year Monster Hunt made most of its money at 6.21Y to a $. Later in the run the yuan went to 6.4 in august almost over night. If they used 6.4,  it would not have beaten FF7 in $$.  However it was announced that it had beaten FF7 in dollars and applied the 2 rates accordingly as they should. 

 

BOM actually had movies with declining totals after they made a few million due to applying a current XR to the total after a spike that week, they must have corrected them, I cant find one. Its a very easy formula to put in the spreadsheet. Every Monday have an automatic download of XRs appliied to the weekend and weeks total and add that to the previous total that has XRs applied to it already for each week.

 

here is les mis japan. its not a declining total, but you can see the total does not increase the weekend amount and of course the midweek numbers. Ive seen it where Feb 9th total would be listed as 46m, down 2m from the previous week a couple of years ago.

Feb. 2–3	5	$1,644,500	-10.7%	362	-3	$4,543	$48,156,304	7
Feb. 9–10	6	$1,593,225	-3.1%	361	-1	$4,413	$48,718,751	8

Its not a big thing to do and when its their expertise and advertise accuracy, they should get it right.

[POTUS 2020]

1400 we have a 3 way race.

NG  55m The most in PS this morning but has just a 4m run rate and if its PS heavy in the evening, the rate could slow,. 90-105m PS multi; 2.1

BF   49m  4m run rate and it may hold constant since its a toon. 90-100m  PS multi 2.7

CW2 48m  had the lowest PS but has the highest hourly run rate at 5m and that rate should increase after 6pm. 95-105m  PS multi; 2.8

TMNT2 on its way to 10-11m down 88% WoW

NYSM2 heading to 3-5-4m  -90%

Bount Hunter 3m -93%

ID2 1.5m -93%

FD 350k  -93%

Three 70k will fall short of 100m unless they fudge

 

Edit

BF and NG slowing down, either PS heavy or less evening shows. CW2 is picking up steam as it should since it skews older.

CW 95-100m

NG  80-85m

BF  70-75m

 

PS for all 3 are almost identical for tomorrow. CW will probably take the weekend. BF second

 

 

Edited July 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[VinceMichaudC]

NYSM2 decline is quite steep, sad, I thought it would finish it's run with $100M. It'll most likely reach $93-95M.

 

TMNT2 flopped, damn.

Edited July 8, 2016 by VinceMichaudC