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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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6 minutes ago, Fake said:

Super impressive for Dangal.... $50M is looking like a real possibility.

 

Is there any possibility of Baahubali/Baahubali 2 getting a release in the future?

First Baahubali already released in 2016. It only made ¥7.5m in China.

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At maoyan Dangal has caught up to Guardians but Guardians should still win the day as it has significantly more showtimes. But Dangal should win tomorrow for sure. That is super impressive. Imagine a bollywood movie beating a 200m budgeted Marvel blockbuster sequel released on the same day, even for one day !!!!! Day 1 Guardians was > 7x Dangal !!!!!

 

 

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^Dangal has surpass GOTG 2 for today so far on Maoyan. King Arthur is now slightly past PR on Saturday. Still not good for King Arthur though. I mean Arthur showing in Imax,3D,and 4DX. While PR which is basicly a throw away type movie these days is only showing in 3D and is ahead of it on Friday and Sunday.

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37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dangal looks poised to beat Guardians. Its lead is increasing !!!! I am surprised big time despite the trend clearly there. it was 1/7th of guardians OD and beat it 5 days later !!!!

 

Yeah. Its beating Guardians today no doubt. Looks like it will increase over tuesday number and G2 will have a normal drop

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GotG will drop 70%+ this weekend based on Fri PS. Only non hyped smaller movies will have holds going forward. Too many seats now and they like to see it ASAP. It's likely to miss 2x OW, 690m/$100m

Edited by POTUS
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I have a question regarding number of shows. What would be the drop for Dangal and GOTG2 going forward with new movies releasing this weekend? Would Dangal be able to retain a good number of shows? 

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8 hours ago, Barnack said:

If they fudge a US distributed movie, don't they risk to have to pay them more money ? Just to have a nice round number for a movie they didn't have made themselve ?

Only local movies have chance to fudge.

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30 minutes ago, zep said:

I have a question regarding number of shows. What would be the drop for Dangal and GOTG2 going forward with new movies releasing this weekend? Would Dangal be able to retain a good number of shows? 

GotG has 66% more shows today than Dangal.  GotG will lose 60%+ of it shows on friday while Dangal will lose just 33%. However Dangal will have more than last week.

        GotG  Dangal

Fri    44%      13%

Wed 38%      22%

Fri     16%     14%

On fri GotG2 may just be flat to Thursday, 22m

Dangal could bump well into the 30s.

They'll adjust shows thru the weekend

 

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3 hours ago, POTUS said:

GotG will drop 70%+ this weekend based on Fri PS. Only non hyped smaller movies will have holds going forward. Too many seats now and they like to see it ASAP. It's likely to miss 2x OW, 690m/$100m

 

I think that is the key here. Only movies that we do not expect to breakout will do so. That makes the market exciting. Hope it matures to an extent that even uber blockbusters dont corner more than 30% of showtimes so that we could have leggier runs rather than burn out in a week.

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WED estimates
 
before service charges
Dangal  -  24.9m / 146.2m(+12%)
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  23.1m / 406.3m(-16%)
Shock Wave  -  5.12m / 348.9m
Fate of the Furious  - 3.51m / 2,512m
Battle of Memories  -  2.76m / 269.7m
 
after service charges
Dangal  -  27.3m / 159.6m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  24.6m / 430.3m
Shock Wave  -  5.5m / 375.4m
Fate of the Furious  - 3.75m / 2,664m
Battle of Memories  -  2.95m / 283.5m

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Tomorrow Dangal will not increase(it increased tuesday and wednesday !!!). There seem to be some local flick opening and so there is a small drop in showtimes. So staying flat or dropping 5%. Guardians is losing 15% tomorrow. So it will have another 20% drop tomorrow. Friday we are having 2 more openers and so there will be a premium on showtimes. I think over the weekend Dangal will get showtimes back. But Guardians is screwed as Potus said. Probably  looking at 600-650m finish. We can narrow the range after friday number.

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