China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[UserHN]

22 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Looks like 11-11,5 mill for JL today and mayby 20-22 for Coco

No out of this world drop for Coco but still good for a animated movie

Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing.

Edited November 27, 2017 by UserHN

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, UserHN said:

Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing.

From my impression, and I'm not an expert in CBO, but I think $100M is still assured, the question is more whether it can do $150M+ 

Edited November 27, 2017 by NCsoft

[POTUS 2020]

50 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

From my impression, and I'm not an expert in CBO, but I think $100M is still assured, the question is more whether it can do $150M+ 

65% drop is great for a toon (WoM spillover is in play) but not like zoos 50%. Could be the demo is a little younger. More importantly, if WoM is still building we'll see an increase on tuesday. 

$100m locked

$150m jury still out until i see tues and wed numbers.

 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, UserHN said:

Hmm.. so it means Coco won't likely have a wild run like Zootopia and Dangal, right? Does this mean that $100 million is unlikely? Too bad. The movie is so amazing.

Still feel 100 mill will happen but monday drop indicates that this will not be Zootopia 2.0.. But that will be more clear in a day or 2

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Agreed. $100m still locked. $150m still possible ...

[POTUS 2020]

PS for tomorrow at 2.85m and will get to 3.1-3.2m. 

Were PS 2.7m for today? I cant remember. 

A bump will make saturday 100m+, up 100%+ WoW

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by POTUS

[efialtes76]

29 minutes ago, POTUS said:

PS for tomorrow at 2.85m and will get to 3.1-3.2m. 

Were PS 2.7m for today? I cant remember. 

A bump will make saturday 100m+, up 100%+ WoW

 

You're right.

Tuesday presales for Coco and JL are bigger than Monday.

[Joel M]

I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco.

[Brainiac5]

5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

You're right.

Tuesday presales for Coco and JL are bigger than Monday.

What’s JL Number for Monday ?

[Sam]

7 minutes ago, Joel M said:

I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco.

I’m not very well versed in how Chinese BO work either but I imagine in this case, it’s a bit like how in US, we predict what’s a movie gonna do in wide release base off limited release numbers. 

 

Coco started off with small number of showtimes, but metrics like Maoyan/Douban ratings show indication of great reviews/WOM that will guarantee to spread. Thus leading to significant demand that calls for big increases in supply (showtimes/screens) to follow.

 

Plus, there were precedents like Zootopia or Dangal that help with predicting the trend. 

[fmpro]

29 minutes ago, Joel M said:

I have no idea about how the chinese BO works but is it really so easy to predict a movie that opened with under 20m will go north of 100m just from 3-4 days of performance? It seems kind of mind bogling to me. In any case great for Coco.

 

99% of the times it is. Its all about number of screens/release date and WOM

Edited November 27, 2017 by fmpro
Added release date

[fmpro]

7 hours ago, fmpro said:

Looks like 11-11,5 mill for JL today and mayby 20-22 for Coco

No out of this world drop for Coco but still good for a animated movie

 

20 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

What’s JL Number for Monday ?

 

High side for JL and low side for Coco

[lielixthe]

10 minutes ago, Sam said:

I’m not very well versed in how Chinese BO work either but I imagine in this case, it’s a bit like how in US, we predict what’s a movie gonna do in wide release base off limited release numbers. 

 

Coco started off with small number of showtimes, but metrics like Maoyan/Douban ratings show indication of great reviews/WOM that will guarantee to spread. Thus leading to significant demand that calls for big increases in supply (showtimes/screens) to follow.

 

Plus, there were precedents like Zootopia or Dangal that help with predicting the trend. 

Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead?

[fmpro]

And Coco + JL seems to be headed for a tuesday increase

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, lielixthe said:

Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead?

 

Coco wont take much from JL. It will steal from all the flop local movies like Manhunt mainly

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, lielixthe said:

Would like to ask if this'll conversely chunk out JL's showtimes, or will Coco be eating away mostly at the holdovers instead?

Coco will kill openers and holdovers, Justice League will be slightly affected, but not as much. Justice League's WoM in China is better than recent local movies like The Brink or Manhunt.

[POTUS 2020]

Coco, JL and MH are all at 20% of screens. There are several small releases that are going to take 50-60% of screens.  Since Coco will do 4x revenue or more than MH and JL it will hold its 20% or more. The 50%+ will come out of everything else.

So far Coco has 6.1% of shows, JL has 2.3% for Friday. They will probanly keep that ratio as there percentages increase as more show post.

It could settle at coco 24% and JL 8%. Then increase a bit on sat and sun.

JL will reach 600m on thur, be flat on Friday DoD (10m) due to screen loss, bump 80% sat. land at 642m on Sunday. It'll crawl over 660m/$100m the following weekend

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by POTUS

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

Coco, JL and MH are all at 20% of screens. There are several small releases that are going to take 50-60% of screens.  Since Coco will do 4x revenue or more than MH and JL it will hold its 20% or more. The 50%+ will come out of everything else.

So far Coco has 6.1% of shows, JL has 2.3% for Friday. They will probanly keep that ratio as there percentages increase as more show post.

It could settle at coco 24% and JL 8%. Then increase a bit on sat and sun.

JL will reach 600m on thur, be flat on Friday DoD (10m) due to screen loss, bump 80% sat. land at 642m on Sunday. It'll crawl over 660m/$100m the following weekend

 

monday #s for JL $1,83M ($86M total after 11 days). Thor 3 11th day was $2,41M ($98,54M total after 11 days).

The gap is now at $12,5M. After day 11, Thor 3 has taken 13M (it sits at 111,57 now, might not even get to 113M final run). JL is 14M away from $100M. So JL should equals Thor 3 #s day by day for at least reaching the 100M very very very sharply.

I don't understand why many of you are so sure of JL hitting 100M in China. From the opening weekend I saw it missing the mark. There must be something coming that i don't see  and will push JL to the 100M mark.

[peludo]

14 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

monday #s for JL $1,83M ($86M total after 11 days). Thor 3 11th day was $2,41M ($98,54M total after 11 days).

The gap is now at $12,5M. After day 11, Thor 3 has taken 13M (it sits at 111,57 now, might not even get to 113M final run). JL is 14M away from $100M. So JL should equals Thor 3 #s day by day for at least reaching the 100M very very very sharply.

I don't understand why many of you are so sure of JL hitting 100M in China. From the opening weekend I saw it missing the mark. There must be something coming that i don't see  and will push JL to the 100M mark.

Thor 3 faced Justice League on its 3rd weekend, which is direct competition. JL has not that competition.

[bangbingchan]

JL has weak competition in 3rd week.Thor has JL.Coco is a surprise.But not affect JL much.There will not be another Hollywood action movie till TLJ next year.And JL will have IMAX Screens in 2 weeks.Paddington 2 will take away IMAX on December 8.

Edited November 27, 2017 by bangbingchan