China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Jaybee]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/rankings/day

 

Right hand tab is opening day, left tab is single days

What's the wom looking like? 8.6 in maoyan is surprising. Thought it would be atleast 9+

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

What's the wom looking like? 8.6 in maoyan is surprising. Thought it would be atleast 9+

I'll be honest, I have no real idea since I'm in the UK not China! 

 

However, Maoyan has only risen since release which is surprising and the score appears to be manipulated somewhat by 1 star raters. The good news is that the ratings on other sites are fantastic! Douban for example is usually 0.5-1 stars below Maoyan, bar a few exceptions, and this has an 8.6 on there too. (Started the day at 8.4 and has only increased!)

 

All this seems to point to excellent wom. Will have to see what the drops are like though, since we saw with FF8 that with such a huge burn in demand initially, the multiplier isn't actually that spectacular. 

 

Personally, given everything I've seen, I'm expecting a huge OW ($205m ish) then for it to taper off fairly quickly but stabilise due to such lack of competition. Likely finishing at about $370m or so. If the GA see the intrigue and go watch it though, then that could easily rise. But also if the demand plummets hard, then that could also decrease.

[BoilingHotCoffee]

Apparently according to Deadline: The Opening Day + Midnight

 

"Unofficial estimates out of the Middle Kingdom put the start around $70M (not included in the global figure above). That gives AIW the 3rd biggest opening day of all time behind Monster Hunt 2 and The Fate Of The Furious — and blasts it even further up the global chart to No. 8 and counting."

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/avengers-infinity-war-china-opening-india-record-international-global-box-office-1202388431/

[Jaybee]

14 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I'll be honest, I have no real idea since I'm in the UK not China! 

 

However, Maoyan has only risen since release which is surprising and the score appears to be manipulated somewhat by 1 star raters. The good news is that the ratings on other sites are fantastic! Douban for example is usually 0.5-1 stars below Maoyan, bar a few exceptions, and this has an 8.6 on there too. (Started the day at 8.4 and has only increased!)

 

All this seems to point to excellent wom. Will have to see what the drops are like though, since we saw with FF8 that with such a huge burn in demand initially, the multiplier isn't actually that spectacular. 

 

Personally, given everything I've seen, I'm expecting a huge OW ($205m ish) then for it to taper off fairly quickly but stabilise due to such lack of competition. Likely finishing at about $370m or so. If the GA see the intrigue and go watch it though, then that could easily rise. But also if the demand plummets hard, then that could also decrease.

Super news! So to be conservative $350m is for sure. Isn't it ?

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Super news! So to be conservative $350m is for sure. Isn't it ?

No, not for sure. I'd say 90% probability.

 

The remaining 10% is because I see an outcome where this drops horrendously, purely because everybody who wanted and waited to see it went OW, whereas the GA who would usually wait a little longer aren't interested. Even with good reviews.

 

This seems to be breaking rules and patterns in China so far, so I don't see why the multiplier wouldn't have a chance to either!

 

I'd say 90% chance of $350m+, 99% chance of $300m+ and a 30% chance of $400m+.

Edited May 11, 2018 by feasby007

[Jaybee]

17 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

No, not for sure. I'd say 90% probability.

 

The remaining 10% is because I see an outcome where this drops horrendously, purely because everybody who wanted and waited to see it went OW, whereas the GA who would usually wait a little longer aren't interested. Even with good reviews.

 

This seems to be breaking rules and patterns in China so far, so I don't see why the multiplier wouldn't have a chance to either!

 

I'd say 90% chance of $350m+, 99% chance of $300m+ and a 30% chance of $400m+.

I would take that probability anyday after an average performance of AoU. But it's quite unbelievable that FF series has a better base than the mighty avengers there. Vin diesel factor ?

Edited May 11, 2018 by Jaybee

[Stewart]

12 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

I would take that probability anyday after an average performance of AoU. But it's quite unbelievable that FF series has a better base than the mighty avengers there. Vin diesel factor ?

I think it's just more accessible to GA than CBM. Also I think I remember somebody saying that China isn't a fan of space films, which FF has none of (yet)

[ZeeSoh]

Saturday PS is upto 215 now. With FF8 multi that would mean 645m and over 100m usd the first ever single day gross for a movie if I am not wrong. 

 

But its not gonna have that multi coz rhat would mean a 65% rise over Friday and thats too much. But even with a low multi like 2.5 would give us 537 which would be a 37.69% rise over Friday. Tomorrow is looking good for now. 

 

PS is up 16% from yesterday and screen count is up 15k or about 8.2%. FF8’s PS decreased on Saturday and it still rose 17% so we should see at least a 25-30% rise and 500m gross. 

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Saturday PS is upto 215 now. With FF8 multi that would mean 645m and over 100m usd the first ever single day gross for a movie if I am not wrong. 

 

But its not gonna have that multi coz that would mean a 65% rise over Friday and thats too much. But even with a low multi like 2.5 would give us 537 which would be a 37.69% rise over Friday. Tomorrow is looking good for now. 

 

PS is up 16% from yesterday and screen count is up 15k or about 8.2%. FF8’s PS decreased on Saturday and it still rose 17% so we should see at least a 25-30% rise and 500m gross. 

Highlighted the key words for those that may try to abuse what you've said here.

 

Personally, I think that's an excellent outlook, thanks.

[Fake]

3 hours ago, POTUS said:

the only parameter that worked in the last 2 days was multiplying 12-1300 by 11.5 to get the day total

saturday should be 10 x 1200-1300

 

One other parameter we can use..... For addition to the Saturday presales figure.... 1/3rd point at 2:30PM, and 1/2 point at 4:30PM.

 

I am hoping for a 35% jump tomorrow, i.e. 529M. That requires 315M to be added on Sat. So ideally it should be at 214+105 = 319M @ 2:30 PM and 214 + 158 = 372M @ 4:30PM.

 

Let' see if it can follow that tragectory.

 

Minimum it should add 300M tomorrow, so the corresponding figures would be 314M and 364M... with a 25M/hour rate.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Fake

[Daxtreme]

Avengers: Infinity War  May  make a lot of money in China

 

[Fake]

Sunday presales is at 70M. Should increase 100% to 140M after today. If Sat multiplier can hit 2.45-2.5x for 530M, then Sun multiplier should hit 2.65-2.75x for 380M (-28.3%).

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Fake said:

Sunday presales is at 70M. Should increase 100% to 140M after today. If Sat multiplier can hit 2.45-2.5x for 530M, then Sun multiplier should hit 2.65-2.75x for 380M (-28.3%).

That SAT+Sun would be over 143M USD for as weekend of 215. Pretty great.

[The Mad Titan]

37 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Highlighted the key words for those that may try to abuse what you've said here.

 

Personally, I think that's an excellent outlook, thanks.

I’ve tapered my expectations a bit. If it can match FF8’s Saturday I would be happy. Fingers still crossed for a 1 billion Sat/Sun though

[GraceRandolph]

So this is doing 300M total like that boring movie about cars?

[ThiagoMaia]

55 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Avengers: Infinity War  May  make a lot of money in China

 

And we are in May, so it's all the confirmation I need. China OW over US OW confirmed, thanks @Daxtreme!

[Quigley]

2 hours ago, feasby007 said:

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/rankings/day

 

Right hand tab is opening day, left tab is single days

does that chart exclude midnight grosses from the opening day?

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Quigley said:

does that chart exclude midnight grosses from the opening day?

Yes, I'm pretty sure they do.

 

I don't think there's a combined list anywhere, but in terms of the market, China keeps midnights separate for all records and such anyway. It's only the U.S.'s interpretation of them that combines them 

[VanillaSkies]

Infinity War's Saturday hasn't changed on maoyan's live updates in a about 2 hours, it's stuck at 215M, while all other movies are being update live. 

 

It's Sunday is being updated live as well. 

Site glitch? Does this happen often with the site?

[Olive]

4 hours ago, Quigley said:

does that chart exclude midnight grosses from the opening day?

No