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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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5 minutes ago, Fake said:

Combined global opening:

 

DOM: 257.7

OS: 382.8 + 18.2 (Russia) + 200.3 (China) = 611.3

 

Total: 869M

 

I wonder when we will see a $1B opener.

52 weeks :ph34r:         

 

(15% increase wouldn’t actually be that crazy considering the pseudo-finale nature)

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@2pm  44.50

130-200 RR=  3.26

Run rate will stay constant until 430, which is typically the midpoint. 57.54

115m -65%,  slightly better than the 66-68% norm

RPO had a 5pm midpoint. Maybe it can improve to 120m but also be 110m witha 4pm mp

Tuesday hold is more critical.  -15% to 25% will determine the OW multi

 

FF8 was 163m, but it played stronger midweek, only had a 55% bump on its second Saturday, AoU and CA3 bumped more than 80%

FF8s Tuesday drop was an unusually high 25%. I guess weekend demand carried over to monday but not to tuesday

 

 

@HouseOfTheSun I project off of PS.  Not sure what JW2 could do.  JW broke out but was cut short on screens as local competition came out. My guess is that it could improve over the the first one($228m) depending on rating and competition

Edited by POTUS
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30 minutes ago, Agafin said:

*601.3

*859M

that 859 is bigger than global totals of most cbms last year. 

880 smh

864 gotg2

859 aiw 'ow'

854 thor3

822 wondr

658 jl

619 logan

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Monday

F8

 LAST HOUR F8

IW

 LAST HOUR IW

F8-IW

1PM

49,58

 

41,24

 

8,34

2PM

59,68

10,10

47,76

6,52

11,92

3PM

69,40

9,72

 

-

-

4PM

79,00

9,60

 

-

-

5PM

89,26

10,26

 

-

-

6PM

101,23

11,97

 

-

-

7PM

118,28

17,05

 

-

-

8PM

135,34

17,06

 

-

-

9PM

148,70

13,36

 

-

-

10PM

160,01

11,31

 

-

-

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5 minutes ago, abra said:

Monday

F8

 LAST HOUR F8

IW

 LAST HOUR IW

F8-IW

1PM

49,58

 

41,24

 

8,34

2PM

59,68

10,10

47,76

6,52

11,92

3PM

69,40

9,72

 

-

-

4PM

79,00

9,60

 

-

-

5PM

89,26

10,26

 

-

-

6PM

101,23

11,97

 

-

-

7PM

118,28

17,05

 

-

-

8PM

135,34

17,06

 

-

-

9PM

148,70

13,36

 

-

-

10PM

160,01

11,31

 

-

-

3.26 again

Does anyone know what PS were last night?

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Assuming 115m happen. Im looking for it play out like this

 

Mon  115

Tues  92 -20%

Wed  74 -20%

Thu   59  -20%                 1607m/$254m  week


 

Fri     82 +40%   -79% WoW

Sat  148 +80%   -70%

Sun  108 -27%    -67%     

 

2nd W/E     338m -72%     1945m/$307m  10 day

2nd Week   433m -73%     2040m/$322m  14 day

 

3rd week    147m  -66%  

4th week      50m  -66%    2237m/$353m  

 

Second weekend could be over 75% but third or fourth weekend could be in the 50s. Childrens day on the 4th friday will bump it a little

We need to see better than 20% holds this week to see high $300s.  15% average daily drop to get to $400m

 

 

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1 hour ago, Fake said:

Combined global opening:

 

DOM: 257.7

OS: 382.8 + 18.2 (Russia) + 200.3 (China) = 611.3

 

Total: 869M

 

I wonder when we will see a $1B opener.

When they make a blockbuster that's less than 2 hours so they can fit 15% more show in a weekend

 

Its funny how movies targeting the "A.D.D" generation are 2.5 hours long and the dramas are less than 2 hours.

Used to be the other way around.  There were a lot of 3-4 hour epics for the older crowd

Edited by POTUS
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Monday

F8

 LAST HOUR F8

IW

 LAST HOUR IW

F8-IW

1PM

49,58

 

41,24

 

8,34

2PM

59,68

10,10

47,76

6,52

11,92

3PM

69,40

9,72

54,23

6,47

15,17

4PM

79,00

9,60

 

-

-

5PM

89,26

10,26

 

-

-

6PM

101,23

11,97

 

-

-

7PM

118,28

17,05

 

-

-

8PM

135,34

17,06

 

-

-

9PM

148,70

13,36

 

-

-

10PM

160,01

11,31

 

-

-

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16 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Assuming 115m happen. Im looking for it play out like this

 

Mon  115

Tues  92 -20%

Wed  74 -20%

Thu   59  -20%                 1607m/$254m  week


 

Fri     82 +40%   -79% WoW

Sat  148 +80%   -70%

Sun  108 -27%    -67%     

 

2nd W/E     338m -72%     1945m/$307m  10 day

2nd Week   433m -73%     2040m/$322m  14 day

 

3rd week    147m  -66%  

4th week      50m  -66%    2237m/$353m  

 

Second weekend could be over 75% but third or fourth weekend could be in the 50s. Childrens day on the 4th friday will bump it a little

We need to see better than 20% holds this week to see high $300s.  15% average daily drop to get to $400m

 

 

Great analyze. My monday math away from strange bathrooms with nothing else than a phone says 115-120 mill today. I doubt midpoint will be 4,30 today after a little frontloaded weekend.

But if it hits 120+ and a 15-18% drop tomorrow it should indicate good enough WOM for a 350-360 mill run

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Monday

F8

 LAST HOUR F8

IW

 LAST HOUR IW

F8-IW

1PM

49,58

 

41,24

 

8,34

2PM

59,68

10,10

47,76

6,52

11,92

3PM

69,40

9,72

54,23

6,47

15,17

4PM

79,00

9,60

60,53

6,30

18,47

5PM

89,26

10,26

 

-

-

6PM

101,23

11,97

 

-

-

7PM

118,28

17,05

 

-

-

8PM

135,34

17,06

 

-

-

9PM

148,70

13,36

 

-

-

10PM

160,01

11,31

 

-

-

 

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3 hours ago, POTUS said:

@2pm  44.50  47.76

130-200 RR=  3.26

Run rate will stay constant until 430, which is typically the midpoint. 57.54  63.80

115m -65%,  slightly better than the 66-68% norm      128m +/-5m

RPO had a 5pm midpoint. Maybe it can improve to 120m but also be 110m witha 4pm mp   

Tuesday hold is more critical.  -15% to 25% will determine the OW multi

 

FF8 was 163m, but it played stronger midweek, only had a 55% bump on its second Saturday, AoU and CA3 bumped more than 80%

FF8s Tuesday drop was an unusually high 25%. I guess weekend demand carried over to monday but not to tuesday

 

 

@HouseOfTheSun I project off of PS.  Not sure what JW2 could do.  JW broke out but was cut short on screens as local competition came out. My guess is that it could improve over the the first one($228m) depending on rating and competition

I should not be doing math as soon as I wake up.  Its maintaining the RR but used the wrong start time and total and didnt add in half an hour. Thank god im not a bridge builder

1 hour ago, Omni said:

So far IW has always come out with slightly weaker numbers than the projected ones. So I guess 110M for today.

You're back and on the negative side as usual, don't get ulcers over this. Numbers are just fine. ;) I havent chatted with you in over a year. How you been?

50 minutes ago, abra said:

Monday

F8

 LAST HOUR F8

IW

 LAST HOUR IW

F8-IW

1PM

49,58

 

41,24

 

8,34

2PM

59,68

10,10

47,76

6,52

11,92

3PM

69,40

9,72

54,23

6,47

15,17

4PM

79,00

9,60

60,53

6,30

18,47

5PM

89,26

10,26

   67

6.5

-

6PM

101,23

11,97

   76

9

-

7PM

118,28

17,05

   89

13

-

8PM

135,34

17,06

 102

13

-

9PM

148,70

13,36

 115

13

-

10PM

160,01

11,31

 125

10

-

 

rate will double from 6-9pm

49 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

4pm: 60.53

 

Probably be around 64 for 4.30. 

 

:thinking:   If that is the midpoint then 128 for the day and around a 61-62% drop.  If midpoint is 4pm - 121 and 63.3% drop 

 

 

yup

That changes the whole projection for the total however the larger monday mite lead to a steeper drop on tuesday like FF8

Edited by POTUS
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A Quiet Place presales (1.84M 3days+8h before opening) is on par with RPO (1.84M 3d+5h) and Tomb Raider (2.05M 3d+5.5h) , both final presales reached 13M, so it's very likely to do 10M presales and 30M OD and 120M ($19M) final gross even with bad wom

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