China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[nguyenkhoi282]

8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I think 515m Yuan for to day is way to low. It will be at 498-500 by 8pm, lets say 20m 8-9, 14m 9-10, 10-11, 7m and 4m in the last hour.

This would get it to 532m at the low end right?

I think the late shows are gonna be quite dead. People have to work tomorrow

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I think 515m Yuan for to day is way to low. It will be at 498-500 by 8pm, lets say 20m 8-9, 14m 9-10, 10-11, 7m and 4m in the last hour.

This would get it to 532m at the low end right?

¥515mn is based on Endgame's hourly but yeah, considering the last 15 mins, shall go for ¥530.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[pepsa]

Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I think the late shows are gonna be quite dead. People have to work tomorrow

Well shows around 20.30 and 20.45 are pretty common where I live even on workdays those are still the most popular hours to go to the movie (with 19.30,19.45, 20.15 etc)

[pepsa]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

¥515mn is based on Endgame's hourly.

Yes but like I just showed it will be around 500m by 20h (8pm) isn't 15m a low amount to add in the last 4h's even if it's a workday tomorrow.

[cdsacken]

Is there a reporting cutoff at 8pm so that movies starting after count towards tomorrow?

[pepsa]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Is there a reporting cutoff at 8pm so that movies starting after count towards tomorrow?

No, it just runs on after that. Till MN then it cuts off. 

I think the problem is that we don't have good comparative runrates after 8pm. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

Yes but like I just showed it will be around 500m by 20h (8pm) isn't 15m a low amount to add in the last 4h's even if it's a workday tomorrow.

Thing is just like SK there will be a lot of pre-sales for Evening shows already in this figure so growth is hindered.

[lorddemaxus]

Is AEG China first day beating The Force Awakens DOM  first day?

[JimiQ]

$100M (total up till now)

[POTUS 2020]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I was wondering that too but the chart cutoff for POTUS at 8pm

we all stopped tracking after 8pm in this thread

but you can see the balance, and fellow veteran @pepsa describe the hourly breakdown well

IW made 1.8x the 19-20 hour from 20 to 00. FF8 was 2.4.  It will probably be 1.6-1.8x

19-20 tracking 24m to 497m.  

at least 1.6 x24= 38.   535m 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is AEG China first day beating The Force Awakens DOM  first day?

Nope. It will miss.

 

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

we all stopped tracking after 8pm in this thread

but you can see the balance, and fellow veteran @pepsa describe the hourly breakdown well

IW made 1.8x the 19-20 hour from 20 to 00. FF8 was 2.4.  It will probably be 1.6-1.8x

19-20 tracking 24m to 497m.  

at least 1.6 x24= 38.   535m 

Ah thanks, good info.

[POTUS 2020]

Tomorrow PS still tracking 140m+.  The PSm should increase to 2.6 to 2.8

364m-392m  -27-32%.  AoU with 8.6 rating dropped 32%

 

	AEG	9.3	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	189		35	186		81
W	540		220	125	-32.8%	82
Th	365	-32.4%	220	92	-26.4%	82
F	430	17.8%	220	126	37.0%	81
S	625	45.3%	230	238	88.9%	84
S	280	-55.2%	220	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2429		1145	966		501
$$	361			156

Edited April 24, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Tomorrow PS still tracking 140m+.  The PSm should increase to 2.6 to 2.8

364m-392m  -27-32%.  AoU with 8.6 rating dropped 32%

 

	AEG	9.3	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	189		35	186		81
W	540		220	125	-32.8%	82
Th	365	-32.4%	220	92	-26.4%	82
F	430	17.8%	220	126	37.0%	81
S	625	45.3%	230	238	88.9%	84
S	280	-55.2%	220	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2429		1145	966		501
$$	361			156

 

A 5-day opening over $350m....

 

Even in my wildest dreams I wouldn’t have thought it possible.

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

A 5-day opening over $350m....

 

Even in my wildest dreams I wouldn’t have thought it possible.

its a possibility with tomorrow PS so high.  Stick with low 300s for now.  Its an odd 5 days with sunday a workday

[MadmenEndgame]

I am back boys.. Electrochemistry is no fun 😕😕😕

 

Now, want to look at those sweet numbers. 

 

[POTUS 2020]

On 4/19/2019 at 3:27 PM, POTUS 2020 said:

 

Path to 300m

I argued for low $200s  OW on FF8 and mid $200s OW for IW, but got got burned by a lower than expected PSm each time.

I'm not going to be safe and say 250m this time, that's not my style if the numbers show otherwise, because i'm pulling the reigns in on the metrics and looking at it from different angles and well....I get $302m OW, predicated on 200k shows and a 9+ rating

 

1. FF8 made 50% of its BO on OW.  IW made 54%.  With increased ticket prices IW would be over $400m, its possible it could make 75%($300m) of that in the in its first 5 days even if the fan base doesn't expand.  AoU made 65% of its total BO in its 6 day open. MN PS is proof of the rush factor 

 

2. An SH's PS typically increases over 300% in its last 4 days of PS.  A PS saturated IW increased 150%.  I'm going with a super saturated MH2, it increased just 84% from 160m to 295m.  PS today is 138m x 84% = 254m.  There is room for improvement.

 

3. FF8 PSm was an unexpected 2.52, then IW was just 2.13x.  I am going with MH2's 1.86 PSm.  AEG's could be higher because MH2 had a super high PTA and walkups had slim pickens to choose from. Again room for improvement.

 

4. It will need to make 100% more than AOU to get to $300m.  The 5 day will have 102% more shows than AoU's 6 days, .  PTA does not need to increase and the fan base is there as noted in point #1. XR is 8% weaker but the ATP increase will cover that. I applied weaker holds and bumps than AoU do to the calender and frontload.

 

5. A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  But keep your floor at 250m just in case something goes awry.

 

I'm going with 302m.  

 

What are the experts saying? Someone tweet Grace Randolph and let her laugh again. When I'm right she can make me a sandwich!

 

	EG							IW
PS	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Th
Fri										0.4			6.5
Sa										1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Su										2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Mo										3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
Tu										4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
We								5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Th								7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Fr	53.5		37.2	37.2		90.0		9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Sa	66.0	23.4%	65.7	28.5	76.6%	120.0		10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Su	80.0	21.2%	79.2	13.5	20.5%	130.0		11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Mo	82.0	2.5%	92.0	12.8	16.2%	135.2		11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
Tu	84.9	3.5%	102.5	10.5	11.4%	141.5		12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
We	93.5	10.1%	113.0	10.5	10.2%	146.0		15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Th	104.4	11.7%	126.5	13.5	11.9%	153.4		16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Fr	110.0	5.4%	138.0	11.5	9.1%	160.0		17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Sa	116.0	5.5%	154.0	16.0	11.6%	167.0		19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Su	122.0	5.2%	170.0	16.0	10.4%	172.0		20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Mo	130.0	6.6%	195.0	25.0	14.7%	178.0		22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
Tu	160.0	23.1%	254.0	59.0	30.3%	195.0		25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
We								30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Th								59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	160.0		473.0		86.2%	200.0		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					1.86							2.13
				3day	5day				3 day	5day
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	OW$	Total $	XR
EG	1.86	473	2.64	1248	2013	2.64	3300	70	186	300	492	6.71
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1463	1.88	2390	61	201	231	376	6.36

 

	AEG	9+??	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	165		35	186		81
W	473		200	125	-32.8%	82
Th	265	-44.0%	190	92	-26.4%	82
F	345	30.2%	210	126	37.0%	81
S	518	50.1%	210	238	88.9%	84
S	258	-50.2%	200	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2024		1045	966		501
$$	302			156

I picked a fine time to be cautious.  Was thinking 10 to 15% higher but kept over shooting the big ones so I dropped it

$332 would have been a monster call

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I picked a fine time to be cautious.  Was thinking 10 to 15% higher but kept over shooting the big ones so I dropped it

$332 would have been a monster call

with an ow of 330 a total of 600 is likely ?

[POTUS 2020]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

with an ow of 330 a total of 600 is likely ?

we discussed this already. must wait until May 1 pop

[john2000]

1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said:

we discussed this already. must wait until May 1 pop

my bad