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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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1 hour ago, Nero said:

@POTUS 2020 so now maoyaon doesn't work.. Can you predict how movies will perform?

Intraday has been difficult, but I'm sure a new pattern will emerge( runrate and midpoint figured out).  Historical patterns for dailies shouldn't change.

today heading to 51m if it stalls at 830. 55m+ if it doesn't, -61-64%, similar to last workday sunday's 62% drop. Expect -40% tomorrow.

I assume 13-15% drops Tues-thur.   I put it as flat on Fri with DP opening.  But DP's PSs aren't huge, it could bump 10-25%

3 hours ago, john2000 said:

600 million usd by next sunday ?

Sat or Sun

    EG       XR 6.73 IW       XR 6.35
  Day Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot Yn DoD WoW Tot $Tot
  Wed 535     725 108          
  Thur 316 -40.9%   1041 155          
  Fri 424 34.2%   1465 218 387     447 70
  Sat 551 30.0%   2016 300 493 27.5%   940 148
Workday Sun 208 -62.3%   2224 330 332 -32.8%   1272 200
  Mon 124 -40.4%   2348 349 109 -67.1%   1381 217
Pre Holi Bump Tues 255 105.6%   2603 387 81 -25.7%   1462 230
Holiday Wed 510 100.0%   3113 463 65 -20.0%   1526 240
Holiday Thur 337 -33.9%   3450 513 53 -19.0%   1579 249
                       
Holiday Fri 241 -28.5% -43.2% 3691 548 72 36.4% -81.5% 1650 260
Holiday Sat 141 -41.5% -74.4% 3832 569 142 98.2% -71.2% 1792 282
Workday Sun 54 -61.7% -74.0% 3886 577 132 -7.0% -60.2% 1924 303
  Mon 33.0 -38.9% -73.4% 3919 582 31.6 -76.1% -71.0% 1956 308
  Tue 28.5 -13.6% -88.8% 3948 587 25.2 -20.3% -68.9% 1981 312
  Wed 24.5 -14.0% -95.2% 3972 590 21.1 -16.3% -67.4% 2002 315
  Thu 21.0 -14.3% -93.8% 3993 593 18.6 -11.8% -64.6% 2021 318
                       
DP Opens Fri 21.0 0.0% -91.3% 4014 596 23.1 24.2% -67.7% 2044 322
  Sat 42.0 100.0% -70.2% 4056 603 50.8 119.9% -64.2% 2095 330
  Sun 30.0 -28.6% -44.4% 4086 607 39.9 -21.5% -69.8% 2135 336
  Mon 10.0 -66.7% -69.7% 4096 609 12.0 -69.9% -62.0% 2147 338
  Tue 8.5 -15.0% -70.2% 4105 610 11.1 -7.5% -56.0% 2158 340
  Wed 7.5 -11.8% -69.4% 4112 611 10.5 -5.9% -50.5% 2168 341
  Thu 6.5 -13.3% -69.0% 4119 612 12.1 15.8% -34.9% 2180 343
                       
              35.2 190.9% 52.4% 2215 349
              31.6 -10.2% -37.8% 2247 354
              23.2 -26.6% -41.9% 2270 358
              7.8 -66.4% -35.0% 2278 359
              8.5 9.0% -23.4% 2287 360
              8.9 4.1% -15.3% 2295 361
              7.8 -11.9% -35.5% 2303 363
                       
              8.5 9.5% -75.7% 2312 364
              18.4 115.5% -41.8% 2330 367
              15.5 -15.8% -33.2% 2346 369
          4250 632       2390 376
Edited by POTUS 2020
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3 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Intraday has been difficult, but I'm sure a new pattern will emerge( runrate and midpoint figured out).  Historical patterns for dailies shouldn't change.

today heading to 51m if it stalls at 830. 55m+ if it doesn't, -61-64%, similar to last workday sunday's 62% drop. Expect -40% tomorrow.

 

 

1 hour ago, SURAJ said:

Maoyan don't work now?

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk
 

it works, just differently

1 hour ago, Nakamura said:

51 21:30

and it stalled.  new pattern figured out. for now

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7 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

They mite be able to squeeze in one more show per day and increase screens by 20% by then. 280k shows is my guess. PTA will be higher in 3rd and 4th tier. $350m 3 day. $500m if its a 5 day.

 

9.5+ rating, first over 10 billion lc :worthy:

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Maoyan’s average ticket price (CNY  54)is much higher than the actual  average ticket price (CNY 46 to 47)these three days ,so Maoyan’s data is much higher  than the actual data  in the daytime  and  then frozen in the evening .

 

ENDGAME   May 5

 

  official data   CNY 48.5m 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Will there be an animated feature to top Zootopia? Or will we have to wait for Zootopia 2 in 2030?

Coco was not that far off. Next Animated feature that chinese audience emotionally connects to will break Zootopia's record. Its not that hard considering how much the market is growing.

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Regarding, Avatar. I don't think it will cross WW2 admits. WW2 had much more appeal to Chinese masses than any Hollywood film ever can IMO.

Yeah, Avatar original did around $190mn (around 30mn admits) in 2009 but so did Pacific Rim did $111mn in 2013, the sequel wasn't even $100mn Grosser or for that matter Journey to the West did ¥1.24B in 2013 and sequel did barely ¥1.65B.

 

WW2 did 145mn and the best Avatar can do is 100-125mn IMO.

That would be ¥4.5-6.25B depending on what ATP of Avatar is ¥45 or ¥50. @Olive what say?

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Regarding, Avatar. I don't think it will cross WW2 admits. WW2 had much more appeal to Chinese masses than any Hollywood film ever can IMO.

Yeah, Avatar original did around $190mn (around 30mn admits) in 2009 but so did Pacific Rim did $111mn in 2013, the sequel wasn't even $100mn Grosser or for that matter Journey to the West did ¥1.24B in 2013 and sequel did barely ¥1.65B.

 

WW2 did 145mn and the best Avatar can do is 100-125mn IMO.

That would be ¥4.5-6.25B depending on what ATP of Avatar is ¥45 or ¥50. @Olive what say?

Avatar did $200M+.

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15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Regarding, Avatar. I don't think it will cross WW2 admits. WW2 had much more appeal to Chinese masses than any Hollywood film ever can IMO.

Yeah, Avatar original did around $190mn (around 30mn admits) in 2009 but so did Pacific Rim did $111mn in 2013, the sequel wasn't even $100mn Grosser or for that matter Journey to the West did ¥1.24B in 2013 and sequel did barely ¥1.65B.

 

WW2 did 145mn and the best Avatar can do is 100-125mn IMO.

That would be ¥4.5-6.25B depending on what ATP of Avatar is ¥45 or ¥50. @Olive what say?

I am seeing different figures for WW2 admission numbers, most claim the admission for WW2 is 160M (actually, just did some quick search, seems like 159M is the reported admission number).

Avatar numbers are also kind of strange, I've seen both ~1.4B and 1.34B

Anyway, I don't think Pacific Rim is a good comparison at all...

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I am seeing different figures for WW2 admission numbers, some claim the admission for WW2 is 160M+

 

Avatar numbers are also kind of strange, I've seen both ~1.4B and 1.34B

Anyway, I don't think Pacific Rim is a good comparison at all.

Yeah it's 155mn. I rechecked it.

 

Avatar at Maoyan is ¥1.34B, which at early 2010 rate ($=¥6.9) is $195mn. I said $190mn just for approx number but that's not the point, point is that

1. Success of an original in early 2010s doesn't guarantees the same level of increase as in the market increase.

2. 2nd and the most important being the Wolf Warrior 2 ceiling. I don't think it is doing 60% of that even. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

What can we expect from this week for EG, $30M more? 

Yeah, great guess, $30M is exactly the expectation.  

 

Source: I am a prophet.  

 

Spoiler

“I am a prophet”=“I consulted @POTUS 2020 most recent table”

 

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22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah it's 155mn. I rechecked it.

 

Avatar at Maoyan is ¥1.34B, which at early 2010 rate ($=¥6.9) is $195mn. I said $190mn just for approx number but that's not the point, point is that

1. Success of an original in early 2010s doesn't guarantees the same level of increase as in the market increase.

2. 2nd and the most important being the Wolf Warrior 2 ceiling. I don't think it is doing 60% of that even. 

 

I agree with the sentiment in general, that's why I think Avatar's gross in China has a particularly large range, I would not be surprised with anything from $600M to $1.1B, however:

Not only is 2013 Chinese market vastly different and vastly bigger from pre-Avatar expansion 2010. We also have to consider a few other things:

1. Cameron's name is particularly important in China, his last three films all were highest grossing film in history. Pacific rim just didn't have that.

2. The market is still expanding, and we're talking about 2020 or even 2021 here. Penetration to lower tier city for hollywood is a problem, however, I feel like each year, that bridge between first tier and lower tier/country side population decreases a little bit, and to my knowledge, all my known relatives in China have seen Titanic one way or another back in the days, and I lived in a like fifth tier city. Some films just exceed existing barriers. 

3. Pacific rim 2 is a piece of crap and not even a proper sequel, director and actors didn't even return....

4. We can kind of gauge Avatar 2's popularity already, just by looking at Maoyan like counts, literally no one was excited for uprising.

5. I feel like Pacific rim is a part of Transformers "Fad", that China was in the middle of in 2013, after the Chinese audience grow out of it, they.... just grew out of the whole thing.

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