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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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Posted (edited)

I will try to put some views on Avatar and Chinese market expansion.

 

Avatar grossed ¥1.34 Billion in China in 2010 which was roughly 3x of previous highest grosser 2012. That 3x is big trivial fact but I think It isn't that big thing as we are making it and many feeling that Avatar 2 may do the same to say FF8.

 

Now why I don't think it is. I will give my reasonings from China and an case study from India.

 Avatar did ¥1.34 Billion in 2010, Immediately next year Transformers 3 did ¥1.07 Billion. In 2012 Lost in Thailand did ¥1.02 Billion. In 2013 Journey to West did ¥1.24 Billion.

Now the point of what I am saying is that, yeah Avatar did 3x of previous highest grosser, but it wasn't followed with films resuming to same ¥40mn ceiling. The films in subsequent years did similar numbers as to Avatar, with JtW actually doing Avatar admissions. Avatar wasn't just one off, it was followed by other films closely and eventually crossed in 2014 with ¥1.97 Billion,  ¥2.42 Billion in 2015 and then local films take over. If Avatar was special case, we would have gone to same 50-60mn range for the big films.

 

This also nullify the fact that it will do, what it managed to do in 2010 i.e. 3x of previous highest grosser.

 

Bollywood also had a big grosser in Dec 2009, 3 Idiots (₹267cr), which did roughly 2x the non-Aamir gross of highest grosser that time. India has comparatively higher inflation than rest of world. The business in normal was growing from ₹1670cr in 2009 to ₹3770cr in 2013. Today the highest grosser is Dangal (₹511cr) but that has to do with inflation as well as admissions wise Dangal is 36mn while 3 Idiots was 32mn. This is when release size today is 5000 screens, in 2009 it was 2000.

Reason is that, for whatever the market is, population is still there to consume product. e.g. a city of 100,000 people had one screen in 2009, that screen will remain rushed but it has 100,000 audience to capture and might get 10,000 of them. If you make 3 screens, people are still 100,000, the people watching film will remain around 10-15k only, with average going down.

 

Today, the highest grosser is ¥5.7 billion approx in China and that's coming from the regular growth of market. Not that it took time to first overcome Avatar and then reached here. For Hollywood that number is ¥4.25 Billion. The target for A2 will be to first cross Endgame and then local films. Its not 2009 anymore where the biggest grosser of a country of 1.3 Billion was just 10mn admissions, its 160 million and that's perhaps how big it goes in today's digital time. 

 

@NCsoft

 

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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NCsoft Box Office Gold

NCsoft

Posted
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I will try to put some views on Avatar and Chinese market expansion.

 

Avatar grossed ¥1.34 Billion in China in 2010 which was roughly 3x of previous highest grosser 2012. That 3x is big trivial fact but I think It isn't that big thing as we are making it and many feeling that Avatar 2 may do the same to say FF8.

 

Now why I don't think it is. I will give my reasonings from China and an case study from India.

 Avatar did ¥1.34 Billion in 2010, Immediately next year Transformers 3 did ¥1.07 Billion. In 2012 Lost in Thailand did ¥1.02 Billion. In 2013 Journey to West did ¥1.24 Billion.

 Now the point of what I am saying is that, yeah Avatar did 3x of previous highest grosser, but it wasn't followed with films resuming to same ¥40mn ceiling. The films in subsequent years did similar numbers as to Avatar, with JtW actually doing Avatar admissions. Avatar wasn't just one off, it was followed by other films closely and eventually crossed in 2014 with ¥1.97 Billion,  ¥2.42 Billion in 2015 and then local films take over. If Avatar was special case, we would have gone to same 50-60mn range for the big films.

@NCsoft

 

Oh I do mostly agree with this assessment here. I mean afterall, I'm not going around predicting Avatar 2 doing $2.55B in China alone, tripling Wolf Warrior 2, because Avatar did the same to the highest grossing at the time. ;)  I'm also not going around predicting that Avatar 2 will triple Endgame's gross in China, doing $1.89B, neither is possible, and I think we know that the Chinese market has matured and grown over the years, not to a point of saturation yet, but at least the potential is well realized enough that no film can triple the highest grosser anymore.

 

Avatar tripled "2012" I think partly because it came out at a time where the Chinese market demand and ceiling is potentially reaching ¥1B, but no film was there to test that limit at all. Avatar came out and became the phenomenon that it was. However, I have to disagree that Avatar wasn't as special, just because films post Avatar didn't go back to ¥40mn grosses, they can't! I think I talked about the concept of Pre-Avatar China market and Post-Avatar expansion China, Avatar so drastically changed the dynamic of an exponentially growing market that film don't go back to pre-Avatar grosses anymore, not with the amount of theaters being built, not with 50% yearly growth that China had. This isn't domestic market where you can have Titanic grossing $600M and sitting there alone for another 12 years, that's the nature of a stable market. Avatar is very much a special case, because it partly contributed to the rapid expansion of Chinese market, Avatar's gross as a proportion of 2010's China gross is nearly unparalleled and still unmatched not even by WW2. The fact that Transformer 3 (peak of Transformers popularity in China as a franchise), which was absolutely the Hollywood film to see at the time, came out 1.5 years later in post-Avatar expansion China and didn't come close to Avatar is actually a testament to Avatar's strength, any movie retaining highest grossing film for 4.5 years in a exponentially growing market is "special", Titanic was also special, but then again, there was no such thing as post-Titanic expansion, the Chinese market I believe actually shrunk a little after Titanic, allowing Titanic to hold that crown for longer.

 

I guess the point is, I realize that Avatar's "Tripling highest grosser" is not to be duplicated and I think everyone realizes that. For predicting Avatar 2, I really think it can go anywhere between $600M to $1.2B, but personally I lean toward close to $1B. It's not a out there prediction because the last three Cameron films all became the highest grossing film in China ever. With Titanic and Avatar at the very least double the highest grosser at the time. I'm not predicting that at all for Avatar 2, but I think it's reasonable to think, that if Avatar 2 has an admission number somewhat below WW2's 169M, but out-gross it due to 4 years of inflation + 3D/premium showing advantages, for a total of $900M to $1B, I think that's fine as it is, I mean, it's James Cameron and Avatar that we're talking about.

 

We can't really predict the future though, we don't know where exchange rate will be at by the end of 2021, and where this trade war will lead to in terms of Hollywood importations, and also if Avatar 2 will be allowed to play for more than 1 Month etc.... We can only predict based on the assumption that things staying the same, relatively speaking. 

 

Edited by NCsoft
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

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What are the highest grossing franchises in China? MCU I think ~18.4B¥, obvious #1, but not sure what would round out the rest of the top 5. F&F I guess #2, maybe Transformers 3? Any local franchises muscle those out?

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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19 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What are the highest grossing franchises in China? MCU I think ~18.4B¥, obvious #1, but not sure what would round out the rest of the top 5. F&F I guess #2, maybe Transformers 3? Any local franchises muscle those out?

Wolf Warrior would be #3 I believe

Transformers #4

 

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Tuesday pre-sales equal to Monday's yesterday. Shall be flat tomorrow. ¥20mn plus today.

I'm still newish to the Chinese BO market so correct me if I am wrong, but that strong Monday coupled with a flat Tuesday would indicate that it's going to have some amazing legs. Maybe not necessarily Zootopia or Coco strength, but still really strong. 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

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1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

I'm still newish to the Chinese BO market so correct me if I am wrong, but that strong Monday coupled with a flat Tuesday would indicate that it's going to have some amazing legs. Maybe not necessarily Zootopia or Coco strength, but still really strong. 

Yeah. I was projecting $63mn yesterday optimistically. Realistically can hope for $50mn.

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justvision Sleeper Hit

justvision

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/27/2019 at 9:22 AM, Charlie Jatinder said:

-snipped-

Reason is that, for whatever the market is, population is still there to consume product. e.g. a city of 100,000 people had one screen in 2009, that screen will remain rushed but it has 100,000 audience to capture and might get 10,000 of them. If you make 3 screens, people are still 100,000, the people watching film will remain around 10-15k only, with average going down.admissions, its 160 million and that's perhaps how big it goes in today's digital time. 

 

@NCsoft

 

Yes, rapid increase in screen count does not necessarily translate into increase in BO, at least not linearly. Screen count (together with movies production) is supply side, population growth and the people's desire to go to cinema to see movies (facing lot of competition from other forms of entertainment of increasingly varieties and higher quality and easier access) are demand side.

 

E.g. in the craze of housing bubble, developers rush to build various properties due to rapidly rising house prices. However, buyers' purchasing power will not catch up and overcapacity, overhang and unsold units will ensue.

 

Initial phase of rapid screen count increase will help with easier access to cinema going (vicinity, better seats in OW for blockbusters, more PLF screens etc) and may contribute somewhat to BO increase. Later, overcapacity will set in, and the growth will plateau. Longer term, the population growth and increase in standard of living/purchasing power may again gradually drive the total BO (together with increased in average ticket price due to inflation).

 

I would argue that the rapid growth phase of China BO for Hollywood movies is largely over. The screen count is a bit on the overcapacity. The main market for Hollywood movies are in tier one and tier two cities (and to a smaller extent in tier 3), which in the last 10 years have transited into middle class with stable purchasing power. China market will still grow, but at much slower pace, in tanden with its much slower GDP growth and aging population.

Edited by justvision
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