China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

I'm not always right about box office and never deny it. But if that become the evidence to prove I'm wrong. Fine, I quite.

Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. 

?

[Olive]

maoyan predicts 3.44B final total for Nezha

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What? He is behaving like a microscopic criticism is the end of the world... Out of the blue...

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. 

@POTUS 2020 is bitter?? Never seen that. At all

[Nero]

21 minutes ago, fmpro said:

@POTUS 2020 is bitter?? Never seen that. At all

He means Trump 

[MrGlass2]

Come back Gavin you're our only hope.

 

[RaidensSword]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

won't hit $400M.

I agree with Gavin

[Jiffy]

2 hours ago, Olive said:

maoyan predicts 3.44B final total for Nezha

Just shy of $500m? What's the highest they've ever predicted after OW?

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Jiffy said:

Is CBO still anticipated to overtake US revenue in the near-future?

no. but I dont just say no without reason.  Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS.  Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked.

Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18.  I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015. 

Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years.  2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop.  I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie.  With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year.  They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below.  Could be 10 or more years.

 

[keysersoze123]

this summer have been bad for local releases with so many movies dropping out completely bcos of censorship reasons. otherwise we need few domestic mega blockbusters every summer for China to take overall record. Its not going to break the record with just hollywood movies.

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, cannastop said:

Byron Howard says he's working on a musical now. Which is most likely NOT Zootopia 2.

 

So unless they got  a new director, Zootopia 2 isn't going anywhere. And there are no credible rumors that it is going anywhere.

Earliest is Nov 2021 but sure I will concede 2023 is possible. Zero chance or close to it that a sequel doesn't happen. Very strong demand for it.

[NCsoft]

6 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

no. but I dont just say no without reason.  Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS.  Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked.

Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18.  I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015. 

Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years.  2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop.  I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie.  With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year.  They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below.  Could be 10 or more years.



I remembered thinking that China would surpass domestic by 2018, most people thought 2017 I think. Then it came to a abrupt halt, you were definitely the only one seeing that coming.

 

The gap between China and Domestic in 2019 will be fairly large, obviously, but next year seems interesting as Domestic market is almost bound to shrink quite a bit from 2019, while China is as always uncertain, obviously China won't surpass domestic next year yet, but I'm interested in seeing how large or small the gap will be. 

Edited July 30, 2019 by NCsoft

[Claudio]

Don't worry guys. Gavin made some wrong predictions lately on purpose just so he can take a break from giving  box office updates because he's secretly dating with the love of his life , Daisy Ridley. He wants to focus on his relationship and when everything goes right , I believe he'll be back with his accurate predictions like before.

[Xiaoshu]

Ne Zha was 135M at 7p.m Mon

Today 140M at 7p.m

[POTUS 2020]

21 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Dying to Survive

$31M on Monday

$233M total.

Another $235M from the rest of the run.

 

Ne Zha

$27M on Monday

$131M total.

$269M from the rest of run? Ignoring The Bravest, Line Walker 2? 

 

I'm not always right about box office and never deny it. But if that become the evidence to prove I'm wrong. Fine, I quite.

Im not always right either. When I state with conviction I give data to back it up, thats all.  As you did here, after your original post. Thank you

Lets look at it

       DTS          NZ

Th   160m     

Fr    241         137m

Sa   386         230

Su   386         286

Mo  207         186

Tu   177         184

We 148           172?

 

DTS had a great Sat bump and sun and mon holds.  Tues and wed normalized with 15% drops.  Demand burn kicking in after a larger OW.

 

The trajectory on NZ is different.  A smaller Fri with great bumps on both Sat and sun, and a huge hold on monday and Tues near flat. The WoM is still spreading and family films/toons generally have larger OW multis.

NZ Tues passed DtS's Tues, as I suspected, and the gap will get bigger.  $269m more is no problem now that we see Tues is 4% bigger and I assume Wed will be 15%+ bigger

 

The Bravest is a different demo, they can coexist. Same with Line walker 2. New releases take a lot of shows on day 1, but a 9.7 rated, super holding, potentially $500m family film kicks new releases asses and take names later. They will get hit, not the normal other way around.

@fmpro 👍

 

 

 

 

[LeoC]

Gavin has a lot of inside information when it comes to CBO, but is not as good at box office prediction as POTUS and a few others are here. 

[fmpro]

Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth

Edited July 30, 2019 by fmpro

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth

Yup. possibly higher

$102m OW

$103m  Midweek

$105m 2nd weekend (even with a 150m thur this should happen- F185, S285, S255

$60m 2nd Midweek  (normalized sun, mon, tues drops reduce the MW even with same WE amount

$370m 14 day total

with a $165m 2nd week. 

Just 60% drops in week 3 and 4 get it to $462m plus $10m+ for rest of run  $472m

50% drops $493m +$15m RoR,  $508m

 

 

[efialtes76]

Wednesday presales are bigger than Monday&Tuesday.