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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread | Wonder Woman - Dec 18, Soul - Dec 25

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45 minutes ago, pepsa said:

So TROS made 16.9m today, OW: 85.1m or around $12.15m USD. TROS OW was a 4.5 day release so multi won't go higher than 1.6 at max I think.

1.6 multi would give it $19.5m, I am thinking around $18m seems more likely.

Under $16mn:sarah:

Spoiler

85

5

4

4

2.5 // 100.5

 

1.5

3.5

2.5 // 108

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3 // 110

 

Edited by Jedi Jat
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Its weekend number is identical to Solo, which added 42m after Sunday, so probably 125m-ish finish.

 

Surprisingly my 140m prediction is very close despite the doom and gloom after the underperforming Wed and Thur.

Edited by ymblcza

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4 minutes ago, ymblcza said:

It’s weekend number is identical to Solo, which added 42m after Sunday, so probably 125m-ish finish.

 

Surprisingly my 140m prediction is very close despite the doom and gloom after the underperforming Wed and Thur.

Wait what? a $12m OW wasn't doom and gloom. SW set the bar pretty high on this one, in the future it needs a 6m or lower OD to be actualy Doom and Gloom 😛

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I don't mean to start a fan war but

 

Spoiler

Knives Out is higher than TROS here.

 

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:
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Knives Out is higher than TROS here.

I don't mean to start a fan war but

 

Even in India most likely.

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SW9

Bad news: will lose 70% of shows on friday.

Good news: it will clear $16m and beat Solo.

Bad news: $17m out of reach

 

F2 still on track for $120m

 

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Really ? $16M for TROS : ok easy but $17M out of reach ? how ? I don't understand Chinese market 

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9 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Really ? $16M for TROS : ok easy but $17M out of reach ? how ? I don't understand Chinese market 

It is all about showtimes and word of mouth in the Chinese market - especially for 2nd weekends; most holdovers lose a huge percentage (>50%) of their showtimes when new openers enter on Fridays. 
 

Only movies with strong WoM (hence attendance) can retain most of their showtimes; and so IpMan4 and Sheep without Shepherd will retain their showtimes and IpMan4 will probably lead the weekend again.

TRoS has the weakest attendance of all openers last week; I think that the cinema chains are already generous by not scrapping its showtimes completely. 

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1 hour ago, LPLC said:

Really ? $16M for TROS : ok easy but $17M out of reach ? how ? I don't understand Chinese market 

it's on 102m atm, 10m more will give it 112m/$16.

to hit $17/119m it needs 17m more and maybe that's too far? haven't tracked it so can't say much.

Edited by a2k

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So a remake of an Indian movie/Japanese novel will bitchslap IP man 4? Am I right?

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17 hours ago, LPLC said:

Really ? $16M for TROS : ok easy but $17M out of reach ? how ? I don't understand Chinese market 

 

16 hours ago, a2k said:

it's on 102m atm, 10m more will give it 112m/$16.

to hit $17/119m it needs 17m more and maybe that's too far? haven't tracked it so can't say much.

What @TigerPaw said plus 3 releases on the Mon the 31st will take 60% of shows.  With SwoS and IP4  holding well(high PTA) they will strip the shows from SW9 and others. Daily BO for SW9 will drop below 100k. and not recover as we have recently seen with J2  F2 has had a good PTA and continues to hold a decent % of shows.  

SW9 will hit 115m on Sunday 115m/$16.3m and make very little after

Edited by POTUS 2020
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5 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

 

What @TigerPaw said plus 3 releases on the Mon the 31st will take 60% of shows.  With SwoS and IP4  holding well(high PTA) they will strip the shows from SW9 and others. Daily BO for SW9 will drop below 100k. and not recover as we have recently seen with J2  F2 has had a good PTA and continues to hold a decent % of shows.  

SW9 will hit 115m on Sunday 115m/$16.3m and make very little after

Ok ok thank you for your analyse, so Star Wars is dead in China, and can frozen 2 reach $125M ? Is there holidays which could help box office in china ?

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On 12/23/2019 at 6:30 AM, LPLC said:

Your first expectations for Mulan and Black Widow ?

 

Mulan: No clue as I don't know what the historical precedent would be for this film. It has a lot of cultural beats for China, but it's from Disney. Will it be $150m or $450m? Maybe @Gavin Feng or @Olive could better answer?

Black Widow: Spider-Man: Far From Home is so far the only post-Endgame MCU film we have and it pulled $210m. I think Black Widow will do less than this but more than Captain Marvel. I'd go with $175m

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I think BW will beat FFH. But then again I'm about to make a club that every phase 4 film beats FFH in China, so...

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13 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I think BW will beat FFH. But then again I'm about to make a club that every phase 4 film beats FFH in China, so...

 

judging gordon ramsay GIF by FOX TV

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9 hours ago, jb007 said:

So a remake of an Indian movie/Japanese novel will bitchslap IP man 4? Am I right?

Not sure why your comment is so smug / sarcastic / vulgar? The answer is Not really; IpMan4 will lead the weekend again. Overall Takings for both will be close.

Both films are helping to heat up this awful December box office

They are of different genre - so I would not say that they are necessarily competing, but one thing for sure -  they are both killing all other openers including TRoS.

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9 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Not sure why your comment is so smug / sarcastic / vulgar? The answer is Not really; IpMan4 will lead the weekend again. Overall Takings for both will be close.

Both films are helping to heat up this awful December box office

They are of different genre - so I would not say that they are necessarily competing, but one thing for sure -  they are both killing all other openers including TRoS.

It is not being smug. It is shocking. I don't know who the actors are in that movie or their popularity. But to see it perform the way it is against a known franchise movie like IP 4 is something else. 

 

The other interest in that movie is because I have watched the original tens of times. It is a perfect movie for multiple viewings.

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