China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[TigerPaw]

9 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

New things are always risky and it can go either way. But Wall Street really like it so far.

Share price may be corrected depends on performance.

 

I mean i hope for the best, but i rather be 1) pessimistic and be pleasantly surprised by actual results than 2) being too optimstic now and have a rude awakening...

[Jamiem]

55 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

New things are always risky and it can go either way. But Wall Street really like it so far.

 

44 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Share price may be corrected depends on performance.

 

I mean i hope for the best, but i rather be 1) pessimistic and be pleasantly surprised by actual results than 2) being too optimstic now and have a rude awakening...

I think share price is more likely tied to the fact they had a positive earnings which was unexpected, they are likely through the worst period as sports are back and theme parks are slowly reopening (although neither back at full capacity.) Also the Star streaming service is another big thing and if I remember correctly that was when the stocked really popped after hours.
 

Mulan probably is more mixed from shareholders in my opinion with some seeing it as having a positive impact, others seeing it as a necessary loss in order to make some money back on it rather than continue to hold it back. 

[TigerPaw]

21 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

 

I think share price is more likely tied to the fact they had a positive earnings which was unexpected, they are likely through the worst period as sports are back and theme parks are slowly reopening (although neither back at full capacity.) Also the Star streaming service is another big thing and if I remember correctly that was when the stocked really popped after hours.
 

Mulan probably is more mixed from shareholders in my opinion with some seeing it as having a positive impact, others seeing it as a necessary loss in order to make some money back on it rather than continue to hold it back. 

Exactly, agreed. Disney share price increase is due to the earnings (historical  actuals announced), not really because of the Mulan Disney+ announcement...

 

The latter, I do not think there is consensus at all that it is good news.

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

If Mulan's box office tanks in China and Asia because of piracy and the sudden release, you will see how Wall Street really reacts...

I dont think that is gonna move the stock price. Wall street looks at macro picture. But if Direct to D+ move disappoints(I am sure we will not hear anything if it does) that has long term material impact. People could just say I would rather wait for it to come on D+ when I can watch without paying another $30. Even that is tiny compared to how the theme parks are doing. 

[Madhuvan]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think that is gonna move the stock price. Wall street looks at macro picture. But if Direct to D+ move disappoints(I am sure we will not hear anything if it does) that has long term material impact. People could just say I would rather wait for it to come on D+ when I can watch without paying another $30. Even that is tiny compared to how the theme parks are doing. 

Everyone in industry will be following Mulan and Tenet closely. 

These 2 movie run will impact the movie business in long run. 

 

$30 is definitely high but I am assuming that most of D+ subscribers are family. 

 

5mn purchase would be fantastic in first week. 

[TigerPaw]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think that is gonna move the stock price. Wall street looks at macro picture. But if Direct to D+ move disappoints(I am sure we will not hear anything if it does) that has long term material impact. People could just say I would rather wait for it to come on D+ when I can watch without paying another $30. Even that is tiny compared to how the theme parks are doing. 

Yes agreed to a certain extend... And that makes people more confused why Disney wants to take such a risky move that potential hurts it relationship with theater owners worldwide. (I read UK theater owners reaction via some sites, I also spoke to a Singaporean theater owner who told me they likely give more scheduling / larger screens to Tenet as they are fearful that piracy of Mulan via Disney+ in other countries will impact attendance in their cinemas - I am not sure whether Disney has some contracts for minimum no. of screens but theater owners barely got the news of the theatrical release only today in Southeast Asia).

 

As well as hurt the prospect of the film.. just 2 weeks or so ago... it was postponed indefinitely, everyone was still eager to see it on the big screen.. and then suddenly the U-turn.

 

I mean we may potentially all drop our glasses in a month’s time... and Mulan gets back its Budget within a week! LOL..

but from what I am seeing, none of the casts / director has shared the news. In fact if you go to Instagram, you see Niki Caro just weeks ago is still posting about the scale and landscape of the film - going to NZ and China for filming, and just 3 months back posted that audience will definitely see it on the big screen... She has not officially react to the announcement.

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[UserHN]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think that is gonna move the stock price. Wall street looks at macro picture. But if Direct to D+ move disappoints(I am sure we will not hear anything if it does) that has long term material impact. People could just say I would rather wait for it to come on D+ when I can watch without paying another $30. Even that is tiny compared to how the theme parks are doing. 

I agree that movie news hardly matters to Disney investors. Disney's film division is such a small part of the company. Investors used to care more about the TV division and the theme parks division because those 2 divisions contribute almost 75% of Disney's total revenue. But lately the investors seem to have focused more on the streaming division, which the Disney leadership proclaim as the company's future. Those 60 million paid subs of Disney+ in just 8 months really did wonders to their stock. Even with a loss of $4.7B because of the pandemic, Disney's shares still rose a whopping 9% the day after their earnings call. Several investors raised their stock target because of the bright future of Disney's streaming division (which handles 3 streaming services- Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+). Also making investors cheery is the news of the impending launch of a new streaming service in the international markets, which will be called Star. To simplify matters, Star will be the international counterpart of Hulu, but will only consist of shows from Disney-owned companies like ABC, FX, 20th Century Studios, and Searchlight.   

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yes agreed to a certain extend... And that makes people more confused why Disney wants to take such a risky move that potential hurts it relationship with theater owners worldwide. (I read UK theater owners reaction via some sites, I also spoke to a Singaporean theater owner who told me they likely give more scheduling / larger screens to Tenet as they are fearful that piracy of Mulan via Disney+ in other countries will impact attendance in their cinemas - I am not sure whether Disney has some contracts for minimum no. of screens but theater owners barely got the news of the theatrical release only today in Southeast Asia).

 

As well as hurt the prospect of the film.. just 2 weeks or so ago... it was postponed indefinitely, everyone was still eager to see it on the big screen.. and then suddenly the U-turn.

You think a most people in China will wait a week to pirate it, assuming that it releases on August 28th? Or does it still have a chance to make a lot of money? 

[UserHN]

12 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Yes agreed to a certain extend... And that makes people more confused why Disney wants to take such a risky move that potential hurts it relationship with theater owners worldwide. (I read UK theater owners reaction via some sites, I also spoke to a Singaporean theater owner who told me they likely give more scheduling / larger screens to Tenet as they are fearful that piracy of Mulan via Disney+ in other countries will impact attendance in their cinemas - I am not sure whether Disney has some contracts for minimum no. of screens but theater owners barely got the news of the theatrical release only today in Southeast Asia).

 

As well as hurt the prospect of the film.. just 2 weeks or so ago... it was postponed indefinitely, everyone was still eager to see it on the big screen.. and then suddenly the U-turn.

 

I mean we may potentially all drop our glasses in a month’s time... and Mulan gets back its Budget within a week! LOL..

but from what I am seeing, none of the casts / director has shared the news. In fact if you go to Instagram, you see Niki Caro just weeks ago is still posting about the scale and landscape of the film - going to NZ and China for filming, and just 3 months back posted that audience will definitely see it on the big screen... She has not officially react to the announcement.

No matter how much theater owners whine and gripe about this move, they will never ban Disney movies. They know for a fact that they NEED Disney movies to survive. The future lineup of Disney is full of blockbusters and many are potential billion dollar grossers. Theaters don't want to miss out on those.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You think a most people in China will wait a week to pirate it, assuming that it releases on August 28th? Or does it still have a chance to make a lot of money? 

China ain't piracy problem IMO now. I mean look at how the re-releases are doing.

[TigerPaw]

13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You think a most people in China will wait a week to pirate it, assuming that it releases on August 28th? Or does it still have a chance to make a lot of money? 

Really quite unprecedented... Tough one to call, I don’t think people will wait - they will just watch in the first week but I foresee quite a big 2nd week drop if it really releases on August 28th. Not just piracy plus also Tenet.
I think the overall box office potential really drops by a fair bit, people were expecting at least CNY1.2bn ; I emphasise at least because of the IP plus the huge stars in there, but now I think even CNY600m yuan is considered a win? My expectations of the box office definitely dropped by a lot.

 

Last two times when a movie is released in Chinese theaters 1 week before streaming / Blu-ray release in other countries.... the two I know of are 

1) Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2 - it was released on Netflix one week after China theatrical release, 2nd week drop was bad. But the review also were average at best

2) IpMan3 - Hong Kong bluray and DVD released 1 week after the movie was released in theater in China, 2nd week drop was also freaking bad... Above average film but to be fair there were some controversies and it had to fight zootopia.

 

 

but in both instance the 2nd weekend drops from my memory was obviously much worse than average drops for movies with similar ratings.

 

@Gavin Fengfeels the impact of Piracy won’t be that much for Mulan, and I sincerely and honestly praying that he is right...

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Really quite unprecedented... Tough one to call, I don’t think people will wait - they will just watch in the first week but I foresee quite a big 2nd week drop if it really releases on August 28th. Not just piracy plus also Tenet.
I think the overall box office potential really drops by a fair bit, people were expecting at least CNY1.2bn ; I emphasise at least because of the IP plus the huge stars in there, but now I think even CNY600m yuan is considered a win? My expectations of the box office definitely dropped by a lot.

 

Last two times when a movie is released in Chinese theaters 1 week before streaming / Blu-ray release in other countries.... the two I know of are 

1) Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2 - it was released on Netflix one week after China theatrical release, 2nd week drop was bad. But the review also were average at best

2) IpMan3 - Hong Kong bluray and DVD released 1 week after the movie was released in theater in China, 2nd week drop was also freaking bad... Above average film but to be fair there were some controversies and it had to fight zootopia.

 

 

but in both instance the 2nd weekend drops from my memory was obviously much worse than average drops for movies with similar ratings.

 

@Gavin Fengfeels the impact of Piracy won’t be that much for Mulan, and I sincerely and honestly praying that he is right...

Piracy really won't impact it. Just look at the Ghibli numbers. And the numbers that the re-releases are doing.

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Piracy really won't impact it. Just look at the Ghibli numbers. And the numbers that the re-releases are doing.

But to hit like 600m to 1.0bn yuan at least? With stiff competition from 800 (八佰）a week before and Tenet a week after?

The scale here is different..

if you have piracy with no competition, people who wants to head to the theaters will have no choice but to watch the film (even if they know it is available online)...

 

Now if you have to make a choice to watch 1 movie in cinema only, there are 3 films to choose from, and you know that one of the film is available online, the ballgame may change.

 

 

i sure hope I am wrong, trust me.

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

But to hit like 600m to 1.0bn yuan at least? With stiff competition from 800 (八佰）a week before and Tenet a week after?

The scale here is different..

if you have piracy with no competition, people who wants to head to the theaters will have no choice but to watch the film (even if they know it is available online)...

 

Now if you have to make a choice to watch 1 movie in cinema only, there are 3 films to choose from, and you know that one of the film is available online, the ballgame may change.

 

 

i sure hope I am wrong, trust me.

Yeah sure impact will be there, but piracy ain't thing to worry imo.

[TigerPaw]

17 minutes ago, UserHN said:

No matter how much theater owners whine and gripe about this move, they will never ban Disney movies. They know for a fact that they NEED Disney movies to survive. The future lineup of Disney is full of blockbusters and many are potential billion dollar grossers. Theaters don't want to miss out on those.

Yup I know, but we are talking specifically about Mulan here...

[TigerPaw]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah sure impact will be there, but piracy ain't thing to worry imo.

I really hope you are right. The numbers will tell, if we are seeing gross numbers nearing CNY1.0bn... totally agreed. 
 

But if halved of that or less.. argh, it will be a combination of the few factors including competition and piracy.

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

Yup I know, but we are talking specifically about Mulan here...

I can't think of any recourse for theaters regarding the Mulan move. They know they can't significantly punish Disney. Maybe if they begged hard, write a collective letter to the Disney leadership. Who knows.. maybe there will be a change of heart from Disney.

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I can't think of any recourse for theaters regarding the Mulan move. They know they can't significantly punish Disney. Maybe if they begged hard, write a collective letter to the Disney leadership. Who knows.. maybe there will be a change of heart from Disney.

It is non-recourse, they will just show it in less theaters or smaller theaters or worse showtimes. 
 

I mean I cannot speak for all theater chains around the world, but I spoke to one large Singapore chain and this was their intention as they feel there is no need to give huge theater to a movie that potentially have more empty seats. By the way, all IMAX screens are reserved for Tenet in most of Southeast Asia.  Was Mulan supposed to have IMAX?

Edited August 6, 2020 by TigerPaw

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

really hope you are right. The numbers will tell, if we are seeing gross numbers nearing CNY1.0bn... totally agreed.

I meant Piracy isn't the thing we need to worry.

 

What we need to worry is the competition it will have and will be playing at half or may be 1/3rd of capacity it would have in normalcy. There will be Covid fear as well.

Edited August 6, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I meant Piracy isn't the thing we need to worry.

 

What we need to worry is the competition it will have and will be playing at half or may be 1/3rd of capacity it would have in normalcy. There will be Covid fear as well.

Definitely, and COVID fears may also potentially push more people to become pirates and watch at the comfort of their own home.

 

i mean the factors are all interlinked, if it does well it requires multiple factors, if it does badly we have multiple factors to explain as well.

 

That is why I felt Disney’s best decision was around 2 weeks back when they pushed it back indefinitely, people were expecting maybe a December or Chinese New Year release, day and date theatrical release worldwide.

 

The prospect for the boxoffice of film has definitely dampened now, a lot of factors are involved including COVID fears and piracy.