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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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Homeland is looking at 1.89bn or $278mn 8 days with 160mn approx on 8th day i.e. Thursday. That compares really well with Country dailies.

Day My Homeland My Country Ratio
30 Sep   ¥290,247,000 0.00
01 Oct ¥274,085,100 ¥388,337,000 0.71
02 Oct ¥272,785,500 ¥365,022,400 0.75
03 Oct ¥274,218,900 ¥309,107,100 0.89
04 Oct ¥256,600,000 ¥262,053,600 0.98
05 Oct ¥232,700,000 ¥246,689,100 0.94
06 Oct ¥215,100,000 ¥225,441,400 0.95
07 Oct ¥201,100,000 ¥160,311,500 1.25
08 Oct ¥160,000,000 ¥54,894,300 2.82
Total ¥1,886,589,500 ¥2,302,103,400 0.82


The green cells are weekend. Country was under 100mn on its first weekday on 8th October and continued so, adding 1.16Bn more after 8th October. Homeland will have the weekend, which I expect shall be around 250mn Approx as compared to 180mn of Country.  Country added 3.1x post its 2nd weekend to 3.17Bn full run, Homeland shall be able to do 3.5x easily, that will give it 3Bn full run. Ofcourse, there's a chance of better run too as we saw with 800 due to lack competition in late legs.

 

3Bn is locked, with shot at 3.15-3.2Bn which will be $463-470mn, making its biggest of 2020.

 

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Homeland is looking at 1.89bn or $278mn 8 days with 160mn approx on 8th day i.e. Thursday. That compares really well with Country dailies.

Day My Homeland My Country Ratio
30 Sep   ¥290,247,000 0.00
01 Oct ¥274,085,100 ¥388,337,000 0.71
02 Oct ¥272,785,500 ¥365,022,400 0.75
03 Oct ¥274,218,900 ¥309,107,100 0.89
04 Oct ¥256,600,000 ¥262,053,600 0.98
05 Oct ¥232,700,000 ¥246,689,100 0.94
06 Oct ¥215,100,000 ¥225,441,400 0.95
07 Oct ¥201,100,000 ¥160,311,500 1.25
08 Oct ¥160,000,000 ¥54,894,300 2.82
Total ¥1,886,589,500 ¥2,302,103,400 0.82


The green cells are weekend. Country was under 100mn on its first weekday on 8th October and continued so, adding 1.16Bn more after 8th October. Homeland will have the weekend, which I expect shall be around 250mn Approx as compared to 180mn of Country.  Country added 3.1x post its 2nd weekend to 3.17Bn full run, Homeland shall be able to do 3.5x easily, that will give it 3Bn full run. Ofcourse, there's a chance of better run too as we saw with 800 due to lack competition in late legs.

 

3Bn is locked, with shot at 3.15-3.2Bn which will be $463-470mn, making its biggest of 2020.

 

what about jiang

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Homeland is looking at 1.89bn or $278mn 8 days with 160mn approx on 8th day i.e. Thursday. That compares really well with Country dailies.

Day My Homeland My Country Ratio
30 Sep   ¥290,247,000 0.00
01 Oct ¥274,085,100 ¥388,337,000 0.71
02 Oct ¥272,785,500 ¥365,022,400 0.75
03 Oct ¥274,218,900 ¥309,107,100 0.89
04 Oct ¥256,600,000 ¥262,053,600 0.98
05 Oct ¥232,700,000 ¥246,689,100 0.94
06 Oct ¥215,100,000 ¥225,441,400 0.95
07 Oct ¥201,100,000 ¥160,311,500 1.25
08 Oct ¥160,000,000 ¥54,894,300 2.82
Total ¥1,886,589,500 ¥2,302,103,400 0.82


The green cells are weekend. Country was under 100mn on its first weekday on 8th October and continued so, adding 1.16Bn more after 8th October. Homeland will have the weekend, which I expect shall be around 250mn Approx as compared to 180mn of Country.  Country added 3.1x post its 2nd weekend to 3.17Bn full run, Homeland shall be able to do 3.5x easily, that will give it 3Bn full run. Ofcourse, there's a chance of better run too as we saw with 800 due to lack competition in late legs.

 

3Bn is locked, with shot at 3.15-3.2Bn which will be $463-470mn, making its biggest of 2020.

 

With that result, for the moment, the 2 biggest films of the year worldwide will be Chinese. Obviously this is tricky since it is an abnormal year, but still relevant.

 

I do not know the Chinese schedule for upcoming films, but maybe in December we could see more local hits? or it is too much to expect? For example, Detective Chinatown 3 was expected to be the winner of the CNY period before covid destroyed everything. Will it be released anytime soon? maybe during next CNY? or before the end of 2020?

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Detective Chinatown have 2.8 million want-to-see on Maoyan. It's higher than Endgame by one million. Astonishing buzz.

When is it expected to be released?

 

Edit: I have already seen it on Maoyan. CNY 2021. It will be fun to follow its run.

Edited by peludo
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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Detective Chinatown have 2.8 million want-to-see on Maoyan. It's higher than Endgame by one million. Astonishing buzz.

 

What's your current box office expectations? Lets assume a relatively normal theater run for China. 

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6 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

What's your current box office expectations? Lets assume a relatively normal theater run for China. 

Studios behind it expect ¥3 billion-plus. I expect ¥4 billion-plus. If COVID-19 didn't destroy everything, it could have make $100M opening day without any preview or midnight screening.

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22 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Studios behind it expect ¥3 billion-plus. I expect ¥4 billion-plus. If COVID-19 didn't destroy everything, it could have make $100M opening day without any preview or midnight screening.

What is that? like 20 million people in one day?

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23 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

100M without previews/midnight would be pretty nuts. Did it have an abnormally high ATP from demand back when it was preselling? That would definitely help.

I’m sure being shot for IMAX helped increase the ATP, especially compared to other local films. 

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Detective Chinatown 3 could have ruled 2020 CNY. Other titles at same period are weak in both buzz & WOM. DC3 was bigger than them combined in pre-sale. CBO on the 1st day of 2019 CNY gained ¥1,458M($216M). It's not exaggerated to expect DC3 could have done 50% if 2020 is normal.

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