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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread | Wonder Woman - Dec 18, Soul - Dec 25

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15 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

bad news: DS didn't get approval from bureau for a release plan due to bloody stuff.

Any sense of whether it’s close enough for a minorly modified cut to gain approval, or will be completely shut out of a release?

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Any sense of whether it’s close enough for a minorly modified cut to gain approval, or will be completely shut out of a release?

 

at this point, no chance it could get approval even if a gentle cut. But Chinese censorship sometimes could let it pass. Angel Has Fallen was killed due to a news footage of G20 which included President Xi. The scene looked nothing wrong, but Xi could only show in some special film projects allowed by local government. Local distributor knew it was sensitive and decided to cut the scene in Chinese version, but local bureau still asked to review the original version no matter what version you wanna release. Months later the censored version suddenly got approval for unclear reason, perhaps it was just because local bureau need more movies to be released in Dec and make box office of whole year be higher.

 

Same thing happened on Mulan. It successfully got approval at first. But one day, one leader in bureau got little free time from busy work and wanted to see a upcoming movie. He chose Mulan, and during watching it he realized that at one moment Mulan's father looked just like President Xi. He suggested the bureau to cancel the release plan. Disney knew it and tried to save it by cutting a new version for China. The bureau didn't agree with it until Disney decided to remove the scene from all copies globally.

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A few months ago some people were talking about an avengers endgame rerelease in China, is this rerelease planned one day or another in China or will it not happen ?

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Same thing happened on Mulan. It successfully got approval at first. But one day, one leader in bureau got little free time from busy work and wanted to see a upcoming movie. He chose Mulan, and during watching it he realized that at one moment Mulan's father looked just like President Xi. He suggested the bureau to cancel the release plan. Disney knew it and tried to save it by cutting a new version for China. The bureau didn't agree with it until Disney decided to remove the scene from all copies globally.

This is legit funny.

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Date

Title

3-Day Opening

Lifetime

Country

Studio & Distributor

2020/11/27

The Croods: A New Age

$10-12 million

$25-30 million

US

Universal Pictures

2020/11/27

One Second

$8-10 million

$16-20 million

China

Huanxi Media & Maoyan Movie

2020/12/4

The End of Endless Love

$20-30 million

$45-65 million

China

Enlight Pictures

2020/12/4

Soul Snatcher

$8-10 million

$15-20 million

China

EDKO Films

2020/12/4

Monster Hunter

$10-15 million

$20-25 million

US

Tencent Pictures & Joy Pictures

2020/12/4

The Invisible Man

$3-4 million

$6-8 million

US

Universal Pictures

2020/12/11

Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's New Dinosaur

$6-8 million

$15-20 million

Japan

Shin-Ei Animation & Lian Ray Pictures

2020/12/11

Bath Buddy

$12-15 million

$25-30 million

China

Beijing Culture & Ali Pictures

2020/12/18

Wonder Woman 1984

$75-85 million

$140-160 million

US

Warner Bros. & IQiYi Pictures

2020/12/24

I Remember

$25-35 million*

$45-55 million

China

Gravity Pictures & CMC Inc.

2020/12/24

Shock Wave 2

$65-85 million*

$130-150 million

China

Universe Entertainment & Ali Pictures

2020/12/25

Yin-Yang Master I

$24-30 million

$35-45 million

China

Shanghai Film Group & HeHe Pictures

2020/12/25

Soul

$3-5 million

$12-15 million

US

Walt Disney Studios

2020/12/31

A Little Red Flower

$55-65 million*

$130-150 million

China

HG Entertainment & Lian Ray Pictures

2020/12/31

Warm Hug

$45-55 million*

$80-90 million

China

Huayi Brothers & Ali Pictures

 * 4-day opening

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Croods: A New Age

PROS:

- The original title made amazing $60M here in 2013.

 

CONS:

- Low attention and buzz. It’s also doing poorly in advance ticket sale. 

- Most sequels from Hollywood animations in recent years, including Ralph Breaks the Internet, How to Train Your Dragon 3, The Angry Birds 2, The Secret Life of Pets 2, didn’t hit expectations.

- Almost zero marketing and distribution effect. Hollywood studios this year do not threw much money at their Chinese team to hype movies.

 

Monster Hunter

PROS:

- It’s based on a famous video game, and mostly Chinese audience show warmer interest about the adaptations.

- The last chapter of Resident Evil was a surprised hit and has brought more attentions to Paul W.S. Anderson and his new work.

- It’s a male-driven movie while other new titles on the same weekend are aimed at female.

 

CONS:

- Unlike other successful video game titles, the core fans do not feel excited for the upcoming movie.

- It will face strong competitions from local titles and may not win many showtimes considering Joy Pictures handle the distribution job.

- From what I heard, studio didn’t react positively in early screening. 

 

Wonder Woman 1984

PROS:

- The first one made $90M here, a good number that was not far from what other superhero sequels made in that year like Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Justice League. 

- WW84 could give lots of audience the rare chances to experience Hollywood blockbuster in big screens before they are going to say goodbye to 2020, a very long year with very few Hollywood titles. 

- Aquaman earned huge $290M in December two years ago and brought fresh air to DC brand. WW84 could also go with a fantastic run if it gets amazing reviews and reactions here. 

- It is the only major title on Dec.18-20 weekend and would gain many showtimes for huge opening performance.

 

CONS:

- Since WarnerMedia announced WW84 would go on HBO Max one week after overseas debut, the sequel is definitely going to get hurt from unstoppable piracy. The question is how big the impact would be. Generally, it means a deadly blow to legs, but I still expect WW84 would keep normal hold beyond week one because audience at this point want to go cinema more than see movies in home. 

- The competitions on second weekend would be strong. I Remember and Yin-Yang Master I are female-driven while Shock Wave 2 is male-driven. 

 

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from the studio behind Fengshen universe. Not part of the franchise, a original story.

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7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

How's the new Zhang Yimou flick looking to do this weekend?

pre-sale is fine but it's mostly because Maoyan handle the distribution job. The core heart of the original version has been removed from the censored version. 

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

The core heart of the original version has been removed from the censored version. 

Oof, that sucks. I hope it's still a pretty good film.

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This is very bad news for #WW84, The Rescue The film is now set to release December 18, 2020. The Rescue is the third film in a series of films directed by Dante Lam that pays tribute to Chinese public personnel:Operation Mekong ($173M) Operation Red Sea ($579.2M).

 

What do you expect about OW for The Rescue and final cume ?

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The Croods 2 on opening day : $3M. The Word of Mouth is very nice : 9.1 Maoyan Website and 8.1 on Douban.

Weekend Box Office Projection +$14M and Lifetime Gross Box Office projection +$40M

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At 10:30 quite good numbers for Croods 2. May be 45mn ($7mn) Saturday. Weekend can be 105mn ($16mn) range.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Croods is breaking out both on DOM and China front, it may get $100m from these two countries alone.

 

Considering that the budget wasn't huge, and that it had a minimal marketing, it may actually be the first big movie (in the pandemic Era) that generates money.

 

Poor Mulan, and Trolls 2. 

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11 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Croods is breaking out both on DOM and China front, it may get $100m from these two countries alone.

 

Considering that the budget wasn't huge, and that it had a minimal marketing, it may actually be the first big movie (in the pandemic Era) that generates money.

 

Poor Mulan, and Trolls 2. 

More like 80 mil. It would need either the US or China to cross $50-$60 mil for $100 mil, which I doubt.

Edited by lorddemaxus

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5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

More like 80 mil. It would need either the US or China to cross $50-$60 mil for $100 mil, which I doubt.

China is projected to finish at $40m, considering how strong WOM is, it can challenge $50m there, and I fail to see how it will do less than $50m DOM after grossing $15m in 5 days alone, I know it is a holiday, but it will be the only family movie for the rest of year.

 

This movie will prove once for all that studios need Cinemas if they want to have profits, the VOD only model doesn't work as Mulan showed us.  

 

 

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17 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

China is projected to finish at $40m, considering how strong WOM is, it can challenge $50m there, and I fail to see how it will do less than $50m DOM after grossing $15m in 5 days alone, I know it is a holiday, but it will be the only family movie for the rest of year.

 

This movie will prove once for all that studios need Cinemas if they want to have profits, the VOD only model doesn't work as Mulan showed us.  

 

 

It's gonna lose a lot of screens in the coming weeks in China though. I'm not sure if it's pure gross is strong enough to retain enough screens to make $50 mil. And it's gonna drop hard in both markets once it hits PVOD on the 25th. I could see what you said happen if the movie didn't release on PVOD so soon.

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8 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

More like 80 mil. It would need either the US or China to cross $50-$60 mil for $100 mil, which I doubt.

 

China will go for $20mn weekend, $50-60mn fill run can be expected.

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