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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

oh, I see what you asked. The real cost is more like $70M. But in China, real budget doesn’t matter. If studio give director $100M, and the filmmaker can finish the movie with $60M, he/she can keep the rest $40M. That’s allowed in Chinese film industry. Also, film business is more like a gamble here. Many studios would invest something they don’t really understand and bet it. They thought Lam deserved $100M, so they just gave him that much money and power without seeing any details of its development. 

This is the most insane thing i have ever heard 😲

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12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I agree that marketing sucked. But Mulan also didn’t do much in marketing due to many sensitive reasons and was hurt by piracy and 3-day window pre-sale. WW84 didn’t have a situation that bad but made worse numbers. That’s what I couldn’t understand. 

I think presence of Chinese cast would have helped the film a lot in China and South Eastern markets. Will see how the numbers compare in Middle East as that's only place where it can be compared as a neutral ground.

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13 minutes ago, fmpro said:

This is the most insane thing i have ever heard 😲

I might that would explain the poor VFX and look of film very well :hahaha:

Also, IDK who said here, may be it was Firedeep, he said its propoganda film of Fire department, so may be think of it as $100mn promotional budget 😛

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1 hour ago, fmpro said:

This is the most insane thing i have ever heard 😲

 

That's unimaginable in Hollywood but very usual here. 

 

Usually, there are three definitions of production budget here: a) real cost in filmmaking; b) original price; c) premium. How to understand these definitions?

 

For example. Disney and Warner Bros decide to make JL v Avengers and hire Michael Bay to make it with $400 million(original price). If Bay complete all the requirements studios have asked with $200 million(real cost), he can keep the rest $200 million. Then, Disney and WB will sell some share to other studios. Let's say Sony and Paramount want to have 50% share. 

 

In principle, they can buy it with $200 million(=$400 million*50%). But JL v Avengers is such a profitable business that any studio who involve in it can easily make huge money. As evil capitalists, Disney and WB definitely have to milk them. So they tell Sony and Paramount the budget is $800 million(premium), and they have to pay them $400 million to get 50% share. Sony & Paramount agree. Now, Disney & WB already hit break-even point(-$400 million+$400 million) and still keep 50% share before the movie earn any money. 

 

For JL v Avengers:

real cost - $200 million. It's a useless number for most studios.

original price - $400 million. It just like production budget in HLW

premium - $800 million. It helps main studios to avoid financial risk.

 

For studios, box office performance to hit break even point:

WB & Disney - 0

Sony & Paramount - $2 billion(if we say studios get 40% of box office)

 

If Bay think he couldn't finish it with $500 million and ask $50 million more, the original price become $550 million. And of course, studios are not stupid. They only allow those big directors to enjoy unused budget. 

 

Some of you might still feel puzzled what kind of studios are willing to invest in movies with money way higher than original price. Well, it's mostly because uncontrolled greed. 10 years ago, many small studios can go big with just one blockbuster in fast developing Chinese film market and attracted many laymen to find chances. But in recent years, it has become really hard due to many good or bad reasons(one good reason is contents are more important). Although Chinese film industry doesn't have shaped things like big six studios yet, but most resources have now been controlled by few. And most small studios wish they can get rich overnight by making a bet. So you can see "foolishness" like Sony and Paramount take that kind of risk.

 

Some rich internet studios would also like to invest it because they don't have good original works and try to earn some reputations(Apple TV+ is willing to invest $10 billion to JL v Avengers). 

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3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

I agree that marketing sucked. But Mulan also didn’t do much in marketing due to many sensitive reasons and was hurt by piracy and 3-day window pre-sale. WW84 didn’t have a situation that bad but made worse numbers. That’s what I couldn’t understand. 

Mulan seemed heavily anticipated though before the piracy situation happened. The trailers were much bigger in China than WW84. So it doesn't seem that surprising to me.

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13 minutes ago, Menor said:

Mulan seemed heavily anticipated though before the piracy situation happened. The trailers were much bigger in China than WW84. So it doesn't seem that surprising to me.

And IIRC the Saturday was less than Friday which shows how fans of local cast would have watched it on opening day and then it crapped itself in legs.

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

That's unimaginable in Hollywood but very usual here. 

 

Usually, there are three definitions of production budget here: a) real cost in filmmaking; b) original price; c) premium. How to understand these definitions?

 

For example. Disney and Warner Bros decide to make JL v Avengers and hire Michael Bay to make it with $400 million(original price). If Bay complete all the requirements studios have asked with $200 million(real cost), he can keep the rest $200 million. Then, Disney and WB will sell some share to other studios. Let's say Sony and Paramount want to have 50% share. 

 

In principle, they can buy it with $200 million(=$400 million*50%). But JL v Avengers is such a profitable business that any studio who involve in it can easily make huge money. As evil capitalists, Disney and WB definitely have to milk them. So they tell Sony and Paramount the budget is $800 million(premium), and they have to pay them $400 million to get 50% share. Sony & Paramount agree. Now, Disney & WB already hit break-even point(-$400 million+$400 million) and still keep 50% share before the movie earn any money. 

 

For JL v Avengers:

real cost - $200 million. It's a useless number for most studios.

original price - $400 million. It just like production budget in HLW

premium - $800 million. It helps main studios to avoid financial risk.

 

For studios, box office performance to hit break even point:

WB & Disney - 0

Sony & Paramount - $2 billion(if we say studios get 40% of box office)

 

If Bay think he couldn't finish it with $500 million and ask $50 million more, the original price become $550 million. And of course, studios are not stupid. They only allow those big directors to enjoy unused budget. 

 

Some of you might still feel puzzled what kind of studios are willing to invest in movies with money way higher than original price. Well, it's mostly because uncontrolled greed. 10 years ago, many small studios can go big with just one blockbuster in fast developing Chinese film market and attracted many laymen to find chances. But in recent years, it has become really hard due to many good or bad reasons(one good reason is contents are more important). Although Chinese film industry doesn't have shaped things like big six studios yet, but most resources have now been controlled by few. And most small studios wish they can get rich overnight by making a bet. So you can see "foolishness" like Sony and Paramount take that kind of risk.

 

Some rich internet studios would also like to invest it because they don't have good original works and try to earn some reputations(Apple TV+ is willing to invest $10 billion to JL v Avengers). 

Thanks. Thats just... Mindblowing..

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16 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Douban & Maoyan

 

MoS - 7.1 & ~

BvS - 6.8 & 8.0

WW - 7.1 & 8.6

JL - 6.4 & 8.6

AQM - 7.6 & 9.3

Shazam - 6.3 & 7.9

WW84 - 6.7 & 8.0

 

so it's very close to BvS(OW*1.67 multiple) and Shazam(1.43). It looks like $35-40M lifetime after $24M opening.

Even this prediction is too high. Both Maoyan and TPP dropped to 7.9

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I know the sample sizes are really small, but once WW84 was getting all these Donner comparisons, I think the Maoyan scores of Superman (7.5), Superman II (6.8), and Superman Returns (6.4) probably should have set off some alarm bells :hahaha:

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"There is online chatter about marketing not having been sufficient. As we understand it in China, there was a “Power of Wonder” campaign that asked people to share inspirational messages on social, with a chance to win prizes and see the messages used in digital outdoor and bus stop creatives; as well as a virtual premiere event in five cinemas with talent able to speak directly with fans before they watched the film. Special screenings hosted by authors and influencers were also organized to create additional content about the impact this year has had and the “wonder power” needed to get through. But these initiatives have evidently not translated to turnstiles"

 

From Deadline. Probably one of the most ridiculous and stupid ideas ever. Is it really hard to understand that people want from action blockbuster just to be an action blockbuster? Action and fun.  No one cares about "inspirational messages" or "Power of Wonder". 

Edited by juni78ukr
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