China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[ymblcza]

Soul 32.3m

[charlie Jatinder]

8mn PS for tomorrow. Probably 40mn.

[Legion Again]

Alright, not too far from 33, I’ll take it.  
 

And just like that, Maoyan’s prediction is up to 477. Of course it’s far too bouncy with breakout runs like these (finally able to use that moniker for sure at this point). But I would rather take Over than Under on it personally.  
 

Sat PS are a bit lower than I would like, but it’s not a holiday so I think ~matching last Saturday’s PSm should be doable. Let’s aim for 40-45 range. 
 

Sun D-1 PS are fine, 1.24M. If it wants a good drop/flat will need big show growth, think it can happen.
 

To take a step back, big picture, there has been a lot of Soul discussion in this thread recently. Can it really breakout, can it not, will piracy be too much a problem, Tuesday drop made everyone nervous. But I’ve believed in my heart since Saturday that it would make a run for a Tenet-100M range, and my head is finally in agreement. Let’s goooooooooooooo!

 

[Madhuvan]

So, did anything important announcement about Marvel on that New Year Musical concert?? 

[Legion Again]

With Jat taking a break from BOT to study, my crazy midday predictions are free to truly run wild

[XXR vs XXR]

6 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

So, did anything important announcement about Marvel on that New Year Musical concert?? 

 

No.

[Gavin Feng]

6 weeks before the first day of the lunar year(Feb.12), local blockbusters of CNY 2021 are already at tense marketing war.

 

Detective Chinatown 3 gained another 70K daily want-to-see sign-ups on Jan.1, shocking industry and competitions. Many thought the mystery-comedy title entered into saturation after recorded 3m total want-to-see users on Maoyan ticket platform. But it was proved yesterday that there is no upper limit for DC3. 

 

 

[Legion Again]

Going to barely increase from yday... but a lot of movies are dropping 30%, so I suppose can’t complain too much. 

[ymblcza]

33.2m

Edited January 2, 2021 by ymblcza

[Gavin Feng]

According to new notification, two local titles Dream of Eternity & Bath Buddy are not allowed to have any showtime after this weekend. Rumors say the order could be cancelled, but the news and the performances already make most theaters be ready to give other titles more showtimes.

 

No clear reason for why all of this. Local social media speculate the controversies surrounding their creators might be a mainly reason. Guo Jingming, the director/write of Dream of Eternity, lost the lawsuit about copyright and was ordered to make a formal apology to the novelist who sued him in 2004. Guo paid damage fee but refused to admit the legal facts and never talked about it until a statement was released by him on Dec.31, 2020. He shocked people by making the overdue apology after 15 years. Some believed it was for his director career due to the passing of new laws about copyright, and some other thought it was just a hype he always did. The notification have made more believe he is going to pay for what he's done.

 

In the case of Bath Buddy, a complaint was issued by Korean production company Moonwatcher. Director Yi Zhenxing denied all those controversies. And the movie still made good performance. But the studio suddenly cut the theatrical window by moving it to streaming platform ahead of original time without the discussion with theater chains and permission from Film Bureau. The later was seen as a major reason it couldn't keep showing.

 

Whatever the reason is, other titles will get benefit from the event with more screenings. 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Gavin Feng

[Legion Again]

Interesting. Bath Buddy was pretty much done anyway, but Dream of Eternity was still taking up a mid single digit % of screens.    
 

Sun PS for Soul at 5.3, probably go for 25-30ish, not that much over last Sun. Interested to see how the weekdays play out.

[Gavin Feng]

Upcoming titles on 2021 CNY weekend(Feb.12-14)

 

Detective Chinatown 3

 

General situation - Never before has a Chinese blockbuster had such a extraordinary expectation even before it was delayed in 2020 due to pandemic. Wanda Pictures, the local industry giant behind these detectives, couldn't even foresee it was going to challenge what Avengers did in advance ticket sale. In the past, any studio who put their most precious title in CNY were convinced they had a great chance to be NO.1. This year, the fantastic illusions are less clear because they all acknowledge where the crown belongs to. 

 

Genre - Comedy / Mystery / Crime

Studio & Distributor - Wanda Pictures / Wuzhou Film Distribution

Opening prediction - $250-300M

 

Hi, Mom

 

General situation - Since consensus on Detective Chinatown 3 was confirmed, NO.2 of CNY have become what other studios believe they are going get. According to currently buzz & daily want-to-see sign-ups on ticket platform, Hi, Mom has the best chance to go near that place. Shen Teng, the leading actor of the comedy title, is the major reason people want to see the movie. With many hits like Goodbye Mr.Loser($227M), Hello Mr. Billionaire($374M), Crazy Alien($328M), Pegasus($256M), industry & general audience think he is the best comedian of our generation and the person that could make people laugh by doing nothing but standing there. Hi, Mom is not close to be a threat to Detective Chinatown 3, but the huge attention Shen's participation have brought let the rest five movies in CNY unable to follow Hi, Mom in brief period. 

 

Genre - Comedy

Studio & Distributor - New Classics Media

Opening prediction - $125-150M

 

The Yinyang Master

 

General situation - Just like Dream of Eternity, it is based on the same fantasy IP from Japan. But it has nothing to do with that work which was mainly controlled by Shanghai Film Group. The marketing have tried to indicate that their version would be more focus on large scale action set pieces. According to local sources, the production cost studios $60M more or less to make(Dream of Eternity and its sequel together spent that much). But the director is almost a new kid with mediocre career record. The leading actor and actress are seen as power faction persons with good reputations, but they might be a little strange to most new generations and have no hit(or any major movie) in the past five years. But overall, it is in the third echelon under the shadow of Chinatown and Shen Teng. 

 

Genre - Fantasy

Studio & Distributor - CKF Pictures / Huayi Brothers

Opening prediction - $65-85M

 

Assassin in Red

 

General situation - Industry believe the 3rd place on CNY weekend would be contended by Assassin in Red and Yinyang Master. Both of them are heavily involved in visual effects. Assassin has a cast composed by idol type stars who mostly appeared in forgettable rom-comedy titles -- they are more fresh but less well received than those in Yinyang Master. But the creative team have used motion capture -- a very rare tech to local industry -- in this production and attract some attention from movie fans. One uncertain factor is audience couldn't really see what kind of movie it is. According to the original short novel and what industry know, it has a story with magic realism color, an unheard of route for Chinese blockbuster. Advantage or disadvantage? Quality would speak.

 

Genre - Fantasy / Adventure / Action

Studio & Distributor - Huace Film & TV / Ali Pictures

Opening prediction - $65-85M

 

Endgame

 

General situation - Another title based on Japanese materials - Key of Life. The expectation come from two major reasons: a)Hong Kong actor Andy Lau; b)Director Rao Xiaozhi who made surprising comedy A Cool Fish($115M). But these are far from what a great opening need. White Storm 2 and recent Shock Wave 2 have showed HK titles are not good at making massive beginning. What Stephen Chow experienced -- from The Mermaid($516M) in 2017 and Journey to the West 2($241M) to New King of Comedy($93M) in 2019 and finished Mermaid sequel without a clear date -- make industry believe comedy with significant elements about HK would not be a powerful competitor in CNY. A Cool Fish, started with just $10M on 3-day opening, had a amazing theatrical run despite Venom and Fantastic Beast sequel fought with it. It's fair to say they have a great chance to copy that success if they go with a new date.

 

Genre - Comedy

Studio & Distributor - Emperor Group / Enlighten Media

Opening prediction - $35-45M

 

New Gods: Nezha Reborn (unofficial ENG title)

 

General situation - Ne Zha is now a popular worker hired by every studio, forcing Monkey King to get retired. Although Light Chaser created the story with a more modern and punk style before Enlighten Media's Ne Zha came out in 2019, most audience still think Light Chaser's version is built for milking them. Could the studio eliminate these doubts? Again, great content can override everything.

 

Genre - Animation / Fantasy / Action

Studio & Distributor - Light Chaser Animation Studios / Ali Pictures

Opening prediction - $35-45M

[Lion Roar]

55 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

General situation - Ne Zha is now a popular worker hired by every studio, forcing Monkey King to get retired. Although Light Chaser created the story with a more modern and punk style before Enlighten Media's Ne Zha came out in 2019, most audience still think Light Chaser's version is built for milking them. Could the studio eliminate these doubts? Again, great content can override everything.

 

Genre - Animation / Fantasy / Action

Studio & Distributor - Light Chaser Animation Studios / Ali Pictures

Opening prediction - $35-45M

LMAO

[Legion Again]

Looks like around 24-25 for Soul today. Not really up by much vs last Sun. we’ll see how the next 7 days go but looks like more of a mini-breakout again. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Gavin Feng]

Two movies in CNY I look forward to - Detective Chinatown 3, Assassin in Red.

 

I didn't really enjoy the previous Detective Chinatown movies that most people loved, but I have to admit the way the director wove these stories were quite smart. For example, in DC2, the storyteller introduced a fictitious app Crimaster used by detectives all around the world. This allowed them to set up a quite big detective world(imagine John Wick's killer world) and invite many actors/actresses including those from foreign territories in sequels. Every detective in the franchise has a rank measured by their clear-up records on Crimaster. Leading character Qin Feng(No.2 of the ranking) is the best from China. Noda Hiroshi(No.3), played by Satoshi Tsumabuki, is the top detective in Japan. Tony Jaa's character rules in Thailand. But all of them couldn't chase the mysterious Mr. Q, the No.1 of the ranking. Mr. Q without a appearance somehow played a role in the story of DC2 and was seen as a potential enemy Qin and his partner Tang Ren were going to face. In DC3, Mr. Q have led them to Japan and is making something people couldn't always figure out but have to face.

 

Mr. Q in DC franchise is similar to Infinity Stones in MCU. For the first time, a Chinese blockbuster build that huge expectations by its content - everybody want to know and guess who Q is. Also, it's coming in the right time as the relation of China and Japan is improving - many big names from Japan are in this movie. It reminds some people of the concept of East Asia Community. Would DC3 successful start a live-action cinematic universe for Chinese film industry? So many answer audience want to know from it.

 

 

 

Assassin in Red is the first Chinese blockbuster to do something with magic realism. But it feels like studios and marketing team do not really know how to tell local audience what kind of story it has. Some footages were showed for industry people. I heard it has some amazing spectacles just like what audience saw in Aquaman(But the trailer didn't have that). 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Wanda Pictures, the local industry giant behind these detectives, couldn't even foresee it was going to challenge what Avengers did in advance ticket sale.

 

What is the current advanced number for DC3 vs Endgame at the same time?

[Gavin Feng]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

What is the current advanced number for DC3 vs Endgame at the same time?

2021 CNY pre-sale does not start yet. But 2020 was like

 

 

In history

 

 

[peludo]

I see in those graphics that last year presales started just 7 days before release. Is it usual they start so late taking into account it is the most crowded week for the box office in China? Could we expect the same this year, presales starting about Feb 5th?

Edited January 3, 2021 by peludo

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

2021 CNY pre-sale does not start yet. But 2020 was like

 

 

In history

 

 

Both of these graphs are great.

[Gavin Feng]

6 hours ago, peludo said:

I see in those graphics that last year presales started just 7 days before release. Is it usual they start so late taking into account it is the most crowded week for the box office in China? Could we expect the same this year, presales starting about Feb 5th?

 

It's a little complicated.

 

CNY & National Day Holidays have been the only two periods every movie have to start pre-sale at the same time since 2019. What happened in 2018 CNY helped the situation -  Operation Red Sea began in ticket sale days later than other titles' selling due to slow processes. Film Administration, which took over from SARFT as film industry guardian in late 2018, decided to give all of them a same date. Therefore, pre-sale time is heavily dependent on their completions time and censorship processes. It wouldn't start soon if any movie couldn't be finished or get permission in time.

 

In 2019, films of CNY began selling its tickets in early January, 3.5 weeks before their dates. In 2020, things got a little out of control. The release of Leap, a sport project launched by Film Administration and The General Administration of Sport together, was opposed by former coach of Chinese women's volleyball team Chen Zhonghe. Chen believed the creative team did uglify him in this movie and used his influences in sport industry and public to stop its showing. Both administrations were forced to review it again and asked creative team to fix the problem. The censorship process of Leap led the beginning of CNY pre-sales to way later. 

 

Some industry people also believe, Film Administration tended to cut the CNY pre-sale window in 2020 due to some controversies around distribution arguments between studios and exhibitors. Unlike the model in US film market, distribution talks are not very formal and promising especially no legal contract could be signed by any of them. So theaters and distributors could always break the unwritten deal if they have better plans to make money. Sometimes, it brought contradictions caused by different perceptions - everyone thought the other side is too unfaithful. In CNY, studios have to spend ¥100M-plus in marketing and distribution of one title. The risks suddenly become much higher in the happy festival. Film Administration think these conflicts could be reduced if the pre-sale window were short enough to make complicated appointments. But how short it should be? What 2020 CNY showed have made some people realize this method could be a killing hit to pre-sale and box office if only one(like DC3) is powerful enough to support the market.

 

CNY box office already showed danger signs considering admissions in the holidays of 2019 didn't increase from the same period of previous year. In terms of buzz and attention, the gap between DC3 and others is larger this year. If pre-sale come too late, pre-sale and daily gross could be weaker than usual. Too early? Nobody want to see fights as CNY is coming.