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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread | Wonder Woman - Dec 18, Soul - Dec 25

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Dune did HK$8.3M (67K admits) in first weekend in Hong Kong. The full run will probably be around HK$30M ($3.9M) (325k admits).

 

In comparison, Blade Runner 2049 did Hk$10.5M ($1.35M) (125k admits I suppose)

 

China Tier 1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzen) have 83M populations vs 8M of Hong Kong. In these Tier 1 cities BR2049 did ¥27.7M ($4.1M) with 630k admits i.e. 5.05x in terms of admissions. Tier 1 cities were 36% of total China as compared to say something like 21% for Endgame.

 

The same ratio for Dune should give around 1.65M admits and ¥82M gross ($12.75M). Assuming it will be better ratio for Dune at say around 30%, that will mean $42M total.

 

PS. TENET HK to China Tier 1 cities was 5x. 

 

Not an exact science.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune did HK$8.3M (67K admits) in first weekend in Hong Kong. The full run will probably be around HK$22M ($2.8M) (180k admits).

 

In comparison, Blade Runner 2049 did Hk$10.5M ($1.35M) (115k admits I suppose)

 

China Tier 1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzen) have 83M populations vs 8M of Hong Kong. In these Tier 1 cities BR2049 did ¥27.7M ($4.1M) with 630k admits i.e. 5.5x in terms of admissions. Tier 1 cities were 36% of total China as compared to say something like 21% for Endgame.

 

The same ratio for Dune should give around 1M admits and ¥50M gross ($7.75M). Assuming it will be better ratio for Dune at say around 30%, that will mean $26M total.

 

PS. TENET HK to China Tier 1 cities was 5x. 

 

Not an exact science.

Yes, but has the Legendary Marketing campaign started? 😭

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Legendary try really hard here, but the story/style/theme is not very friendly to local audience. For me, the realistic commercial expectation is:

 

Bottom Line: ¥100M

Most recent Star Wars movies did something around that number. Blade Runner 2049 and Arrival made reasonable ¥77M & ¥108M respectively. With a much more stunning cast(at least in our views) and stronger buzz on social media, there's no way Dune would do worse. I even think 3-day opening could be around it.

 

Moderate even Good: ~¥200M

Since I don't think general audience here would enjoy Dune or give high praise(though the movie should make 8.0/10 on Douban film site), Gemini Man, which made ¥235M in 2019, is a really great example for its commercial prospect. It was also a sci-fi movie that made most of their money due to big name filmmaker Ang Lee and tech tricks but gained very very gentle WOM. Studios behind both of them have spent lots of money in marketing.

 

The Last Jedi made ¥267M here with average opening and bad legs. If Dune could keep its buzz till Oct.22, it's possible to hit that goal.

 

High: ~300M

It's where two bad sequels Alien: Covenant(¥199M / ¥311M) and Terminator: Dark Fate(¥197M / ¥355M) ended. Dune might not open that high, but it still have some chances to reach them in lifetime if the holds are not too ugly like them.

(Cosidering strong competitions from NTTD on second weekend and Venom 2 on unclear weekend, it's a tough war)

 

AmazingTENET - ¥456M

At least in commercial, Nolan is a much bigger name than Villeneuve. Although TENET's WOM was mixed, the legs was still kind of good. People can take anything from Nolan as god shit even if no one understand the trailers. So far, Villeneuve does not earn that kind of trust from general audience. The only way Dune would do that much is it somehow get the love from local audience and have great holds. I can only say the possibility exists but never expect it.

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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi will be almost par FFH in Hong Kong in admits. Could have done $150-200M in China.

Could be inflated from mainlanders going there to watch it. Don't know if that's a thing though.

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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi will be almost par FFH in Hong Kong in admits. Could have done $150-200M in China.

I remember seeing boycott articles from 2 years ago because the character was a spinoff of a Fu Manchu comic and that they think the father is essentially Fu Manchu with a different name. Surely, this would have affected the box-office gross. 

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Free Guy has just crashed after Autumn festival holidays. $100M is dead.

It had almost 4 weekends to itself.. Already very very good release date and better than expected performance already. Haha.

 

Anyway HD links with chinese subs is online everywhere... So....

Do you know whether it was released on VOD recently in the states? Thought 45 days isn't over yet

 

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