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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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10 hours ago, LPLC said:

TBALC is falling like a rock. I imagine a final over $750M is likely but something over $800M seems unlikely now. 

 

#1 : WW2 = $854M

#2 : Hi, mom = $821M

#3 : TBALC = $750M-$800M

 

 

Both the USD figures for WW2 &Hi Mom are apparently wrong. BOM should not be used in calculating Chinese Film gross in USD. 

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I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. I can get it if we are comparing WW grosses, but in terms of a single country, I think it is way more easy to look at local currency, even more when we are used to talk about yuan amounts:

 

Wolf Warrior 2: 5.694b Yuan

Hi, mom: 5.413b

The battle at lake Changjin: 5.17b (projected by Maoyan right now)

Ne Zha: 5.035b

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4 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Agree unless a movie beats TFA Domestic figure or gets over $1B  USD. 

I mean even then its not like the box office returns are gonna be converted in USD. They remain in CNY only.

 

Saying so because, back in 2017, ER was $~¥6.7, making ¥5.7B just $850M, while just 4 months later, it would have been $907M.

 

Now there could be another POV, you convert TFA USD in CNY and use that as benchmark for Chinese film. ER is 2015 was 6.5, that would roughly equate to ¥6.08B. So a film crossing ¥6.1B in China be biggest grosser in single territory irrespective of ER.

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5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Personally, What I am expecting 🤔

By 10/17: TBALC : ¥4900M-¥5000M

By 10/24: TBALC : ¥5500M-¥5600M

By 10/31: TBALC : ¥5800M-¥5900M

Complete Run: ¥6000M-¥6200M


That “complete run” number definitely isn’t happening. The final number will be closer to ¥5200M.

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4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:


That “complete run” number definitely isn’t happening. The final number will be closer to ¥5200M.

As mentioned above "just expecting" while I can not confirm exact ending. BTW, I also don't have much hope but Charlie, another expert has focused on 6000M+ ending.

 

~¥5200M is the number analysis by Maoyon which will change in coming dates. Well, it is very difficult to decide legs here. Only time speaks about the final numbers.

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Eh. I dont think 6B is possible from here. I can see 5.8B but also can end at just 5.4B.

Really undecidable forecast. Earlier, you forecast ¥6000M+ on 5.75X. Well we are missing it now. Dailes are falling below ¥100M (Today, barely running at ¥58M /¥4365M on 20:30 JST)

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Yeah, you are right. It did ¥303M vs ¥325M as forecast earlier. It is now going below the forecast. Again dailies are below ¥100M. I am in worry if it can ¥75M or not (Today). Douban ratings are at 7.6 Well, how did people reception working in China (WOM) I have not seen the film as International Release (Outside China) is yet to be decided.

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TBATL actually is doing little less than you see on workdays currently. Official CBO app say 20~25% ticket sales in recent days are offline selling. Mostly, the number is around 10%. It might be a sign that block booking by enterprises, a usual operation for local propaganda movies, is happening. This is why I don't think it would go a long way in the rest of the running though the 3rd and 4th weekend would still be huge.

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TBALC Dailies: (Expecting)

Thru : ¥70M /¥4453M

Fri : ¥100-¥120M /¥4553-¥4573M

Sat : ¥150-¥180M /¥4603-¥4753M

Sun : ¥150-¥180M /¥4750-¥4933M

 

Overall should reach ¥4800M by this weekend. I really don't know it's future. So, my forecast will apparently look high.

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9 hours ago, peludo said:

I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. I can get it if we are comparing WW grosses, but in terms of a single country, I think it is way more easy to look at local currency, even more when we are used to talk about yuan amounts:

Most of us are just used to US currency.

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