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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

BvS in most places :sadben:

 

BvS in China :sadben::ohmyzod:

Everyone has to realize something, not every tentpole is going to make $200m in china. It seems like that's the expectation and there is a good deal of disappointment.  Sometimes it's the quality of the film(bvs), other times it just doesn't resonate(mI5 or something like IO). A majority of releases, local and hlwd,  have a bo run like bvs or worse.  Just 10% of movies hold 50% wow like AM. And even less hold like JW, MH,  or MM. Then there is GML TMK  and Zoo that bump and run, which is less than 1%.

 

In DOM for the past several years, on average you get 1 break out hit above 500m. 2 or 3 in the 300s and 400s million. The remaining 6 or 7 of the top ten are in the 200s. There are a few below 200m that were top ten hopefuls and failed.

 

Growth is slowing for HLWD movies in China,  seen clearly in the % drop of annual market share from the 40s to the 30s. It's apparent to me that a similar pattern is setting up like DOM for big movies.

 

There is the uber blockbuster above $300M like TF4 in 14 and FF7 last year. JW and AOU above 200m last year, Zoo so far this year.  Then there are several in the 100s, SA, AM, T5,  MI5, SW7, KFP3. And a few that fall short of 100m but was thought to exceed 100m based on sequel and market growth. Minions, specter, bvs, the 4th tier.

 

Zoo is the first toon to blow through 1b/ $150m. I don't think live action family films have made it over 1b. Do we expect JB to do it? It would be long shot based on past performaces.

 

As for CA3. Is it the 300m+ movie this year or one the 2nd or 3rd tier in the 200s or 100s. WOM really bolsters or kills a run in China much quicker than in DOM and it's hard to determine the reception until happens. It could very well be in the 100m range like so many others. Can't be disappointed or say it sucks all the time, it's the nature of the business.  The odds are that 70%+ of most hopefuls will wind up in a lower tier.

 

I'm going to hold a contest for CA3. Winner gets a gold account for 1 month. I'll set up a thread shortly. Will it be  2B/ $300+  or 1.3b/200m+ , 650m/100m+ or shit the bed. We shall see...

 

 

 

Edited by No Prisoners
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efialtes76 Summer Tentpole

efialtes76

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Everyone has to realize something, not every tentpole is going to make $200m in china. It seems like that's the expectation and there is a good deal of disappointment.  Sometimes it's the quality of the film(bvs), other times it just doesn't resonate(mI5 or something like IO). A majority of releases, local and hlwd,  have a bo run like bvs or worse.  Just 10% of movies hold 50% wow like AM. And even less hold like JW, MH,  or MM. Then there is GML TMK  and Zoo that bump and run, which is less than 1%.

 

In DOM for the past several years, on average you get 1 break out hit above 500m. 2 or 3 in the 300s and 400s million. The remaining 6 or 7 of the top ten are in the 200s. There are a few below 200m that were top ten hopefuls and failed.

 

Growth is slowing for HLWD movies in China,  seen clearly in the % drop of annual market share from the 40s to the 30s. It's apparent to me that a similar pattern is setting up like DOM for big movies.

 

There is the uber blockbuster above $300M like TF4 in 14 and FF7 last year. JW and AOU above 200m last year, Zoo so far this year.  Then there are several in the 100s, SA, AM, T5,  MI5, SW7, KFP3. And a few that fall short of 100m but was thought to exceed 100m based on sequel and market growth. Minions, specter, bvs, the 4th tier.

 

Zoo is the first toon to blow through 1b/ $150m. I don't think live action family films have made it over 1b. Do we expect JB to do it? It would be long shot based on past performaces.

 

As for CA3. Is it the 300m+ movie this year or one the 2nd or 3rd tier in the 200s or 100s. WOM really bolsters or kills a run in China much quicker than in DOM and it's hard to determine the reception until happens. It could very well be in the 100m range like so many others. Can't be disappointed or say it sucks all the time, it's the nature of the business.  The odds are that 70%+ of most hopefuls will wind up in a lower tier.

 

I'm going to hold a contest for CA3. Winner gets a gold account for 1 month. I'll set up a thread shortly. Will it be  2B/ $300+  or 1.3b/200m+ , 650m/100m+ or shit the bed. We shall see...

 

 

 

Civil War won't make $300m.

Under Zootopia is my bet...

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted

Friday Est:

LHF                47.45M/48.2M

Hotpot.          19M/259M  
Bodyguard     11.2m /265m    

Zoo.               6.35M/1469M (-33%)

Sleep bro       4.1M/105M  
BVS                4.0M/595M(-77%)
 

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, fastclock said:

Can we expect another 3.4x multiplier for Zoo from Fri to Sat? That would be about 20M yuan.

Not bad for LHF.

It's getting a 40% screen bump from yesterday,  last week was 33%. 

It looks to be in the upper teens today. Could be 3 times. Depends on evening strength

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saturday Est:
LHF               60.5M/109M
Hotpot.          31M/290M  
Zoo.               19.6M/1489M (+208%)

Bodyguard     17.1m /282m    
BVS                7.8M/603M(+109%/-76%)
Sleep bro        6.4M/111M  

Edited by Olive
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efialtes76 Summer Tentpole

efialtes76

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Olive said:

Saturday Est:
LHF               60.5M/109M
Hotpot.          31M/290M  
Zoo.               19.6M/1489M (+208%)

Bodyguard     17.1m /282m    
BVS                7.8M/603M(+109%/-76%)
Sleep bro        6.4M/111M  

So 620M for BvS.

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