China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Gavin Feng]

MON estimates
 
before service charges
Dangal  -  22.9m / 741.2m
Life  -  8.51m / 91.8m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  6.09m / 620.6m
Guardians  -  1.14m / 16.3m
Fate of the Furious  -  0.97m / 2,535m
A Monster Calls  -  0.81m / 10.7m
 
after service charges
Dangal  -  24.5m / 803.3m
Life  -  9.2m / 99.3m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  6.5m / 659.8m
Guardians  -  1.2m / 16.8m
Fate of the Furious  -  1.06m / 2,688m
A Monster Calls  -  0.86m / 11.6m

[marveldcfox]

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

No matter how much Dangal makes, Disney will get 0% from its China BO

Disney's indian subsidiary UTV will get around 15%.

[jiangsen]

38 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Disney's indian subsidiary UTV will get around 15%.

Where'd you get that information?

[POTUS 2020]

On Sunday, May 21, 2017 at 8:27 PM, movieboner said:

I'm wondering how much the CBO will grow compared to last year. There are so many box office hits already. Pirates 5 and Transfomers 5 will be releasing soon and it'll be raining money.

HLWD is doing much better this year but local films are lagging. BO up just a few percent YoY after 6% service fee is removed and 5% XR weakness.

 

Looks like Dangal will have at least 18% shows like last friday. Could be another huge hold.

Edited May 23, 2017 by POTUS

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, POTUS said:

HLWD is doing much better this year but local films are lagging. BO up just a few percent YoY after 6% service fee is removed and 5% XR weakness.

 

Looks like Dangal will have at least 18% shows like last friday. Could be another huge hold.

 

Definitely will have sub 40% hold if it has 18% screens. Weekly hold could be 30%. Pirates does not look that strong to me. PS could finish below 50m. I dont think even 1.2B will happen with Olive saying WOM will be BAD. Probably 1st week 1B and then crash 80% next weekend. Finish under 1.2B.

[POTUS 2020]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Definitely will have sub 40% hold if it has 18% screens. Weekly hold could be 30%. Pirates does not look that strong to me. PS could finish below 50m. I dont think even 1.2B will happen with Olive saying WOM will be BAD. Probably 1st week 1B and then crash 80% next weekend. Finish under 1.2B.

I read that previews had good feedback. 

 

If it holds -40% or better on friday the week will be near flat.

[Gavin Feng]

TUE estimates
 
before service charges
Dangal  -  19.5m / 759.3m
Life  -  7.14m / 98.9m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  5.64m / 626m
Fate of the Furious  -  0.98m / 2,536m
Guardians  -  0.97m / 17.1m
A Monster Calls  -  0.76m / 11.5m
 
after service charges
Dangal  -  21.2m / 823.4m
Life  -  7.75m / 107m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  6.05m / 665.6m
Fate of the Furious  -  1.05m / 2,689m
Guardians  -  1.03m / 17.9m
A Monster Calls  -  0.83m / 12.5m

[jiangsen]

42 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

TUE estimates
 
before service charges
Dangal  -  19.5m / 759.3m
Life  -  7.14m / 98.9m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  5.64m / 626m
Fate of the Furious  -  0.98m / 2,536m
Guardians  -  0.97m / 17.1m
A Monster Calls  -  0.76m / 11.5m
 
after service charges
Dangal  -  21.2m / 823.4m
Life  -  7.75m / 107m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  6.05m / 665.6m
Fate of the Furious  -  1.05m / 2,689m
Guardians  -  1.03m / 17.9m
A Monster Calls  -  0.83m / 12.5m

Demand finally starting to flag for Dangal

[Mrstickball]

Its down less than 30% from last week. I wouldn't call that demand dropping.. That's an incredible hold for the Chinese market.

[Fake]

33 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

Its down less than 30% from last week. I wouldn't call that demand dropping.. That's an incredible hold for the Chinese market.

That's true.... but the day-to-day drop was pretty steep... maybe it is just an anomaly.

 

But I guess 1.1B is the high end now.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Fake

[fmpro]

So 23,4 mill yuan to go for GOTG2 hitting 100 mill $

 

the 10,4 should happen wed an thurday combined. Only 13 mill after that. Going to be close

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, fmpro said:

So 23,4 mill yuan to go for GOTG2 hitting 100 mill $

 

the 10,4 should happen wed an thurday combined. Only 13 mill after that. Going to be close

 

It will happen. Since we have few holidays plus Pirates is not going to take over BO completely. It can do it with 4-5% of showtimes.

[Olive]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

It will happen. Since we have few holidays plus Pirates is not going to take over BO completely. It can do it with 4-5% of showtimes.

A bounch of local movies opens on Saturday as well, so GV2 will only make a littile after Friday.

[fmpro]

5 minutes ago, Olive said:

A bounch of local movies opens on Saturday as well, so GV2 will only make a littile after Friday.

 

Yeah. Its almost out of top 20 presale for sat

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

It will happen. Since we have few holidays plus Pirates is not going to take over BO completely. It can do it with 4-5% of showtimes.

 

Maybe it will but no way 4-5% showtimes will happen. More like 0,4-0,5 % 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

Maybe it will but no way 4-5% showtimes will happen. More like 0,4-0,5 % 

 

less than half the shows from friday have been put out and it already has 1.9%. It should get 4-5% for sure.

 

Edit: Ok so movies will lose more on saturday. That makes things tricky. Let us wait and watch.

Edited May 24, 2017 by keysersoze123

[Gavin Feng]

WED estimates
 
before service charges
Dangal  -  18.1m / 777.6m
Life  -  6.66m / 105.6m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  5.61m / 631.7m
Fate of the Furious  -  1.01m / 2,537m
Guardians  -  0.9m / 18.1m
A Monster Calls  -  0.74m / 12.2m
 
after service charges
Dangal  -  19.6m / 846.7m
Life  -  7.2m / 114.8m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2  -  6m / 673.2m
Fate of the Furious  -  1.08m / 2,690m
Guardians  -  0.95m / 19.3m
A Monster Calls  -  0.8m / 13.4m
 

[bangbingchan]

 

WW will have Limited previews On May 31 .200 shows only imax/Dobby in 80 cities.

[Gavin Feng]

It is estimated that Paramount will earn ￥900m+ from The Last Knight after making the minimum-guarantee deal with local film studios.

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

It is estimated that Paramount will earn ￥900m+ from The Last Knight after making the minimum-guarantee deal with local film studios.

 

That is really great. I wonder if Fast movies also will start to do these deals in future.