China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

All those 4 cannot afford to loose China. If WB are out of a spot AQM moving to Jan release makes the most sense as it's releasing mid-Dec anyway. AIW China was also 2 weeks after the Dom ow.

Exactly and have more upside than a Ocean 8 if it was down to a choice like that for the studio / Distributor in China.

 

Ocean's was a franchise that was doing very well before China box office was an expression.

[jiangsen]

 

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

2 different type of movies and that is important with the very limited revenues sharing import slot system in the China market. There is certain film a studio will accept to be played in China without having a share of the gross, they will not engage in that practice with a movie like this, really bad precedent to set.

 

And if you want to get 25% of the box office, you need to have access and burn an import slot:

http://chinafilminsider.com/how-many-import-slots-does-each-studio-get/

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/sabrina-mccutchan-dje.pdf

 

There is around 36 slot in a year, for the 6 studios and a couple of other player to share, Warner achieved to get around 5/6 a year in recent year's.

 

You release Rampage, Tomb Raider and Ready Player One for sure, that is already 3 slot.

 

For sure WB will want to release The Meg, Mowgli, Potter, Aquaman (or maybe one of those will be next year to save one), but that is already 7 China movie for just one studio, I would imagine they simply could not fit a movie like Ocean's 8 in, would not be surprised if that franchise would mean little there.

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

The Meg is a co-production. It's considered a domestic film and doesn't count towards the quota. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by jiangsen

[A Marvel Fanboy]

13 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

How much you'd think it would make if it got a release? I noticed the previous entries didn't get a release either.

2X Solo's gross not impossible ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

4 hours ago, jiangsen said:

 

The Meg is a co-production. It's considered a domestic film and doesn't count towards the quota. 

right.

6 hours ago, Barnack said:

2 different type of movies and that is important with the very limited revenues sharing import slot system in the China market. There is certain film a studio will accept to be played in China without having a share of the gross, they will not engage in that practice with a movie like this, really bad precedent to set.

 

And if you want to get 25% of the box office, you need to have access and burn an import slot:

http://chinafilminsider.com/how-many-import-slots-does-each-studio-get/

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/sabrina-mccutchan-dje.pdf

 

There is around 36 slot in a year, for the 6 studios and a couple of other player to share, Warner achieved to get around 5/6 a year in recent year's.

 

You release Rampage, Tomb Raider and Ready Player One for sure, that is already 3 slot.

 

For sure WB will want to release The Meg, Mowgli, Potter, Aquaman (or maybe one of those will be next year to save one), but that is already 7 China movie for just one studio, I would imagine they simply could not fit a movie like Ocean's 8 in, would not be surprised if that franchise would mean little there.

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

All this would be true before 2018. However from 2018 and on, studios can get unlimited number of revenue-sharing releases. The rule of 34 quote releases each year has now be canceled. Lets say WB have 10 films in their 2018 slate, then they can submit all of them to the Film Bureau for release, and all of the 10 films could be released as long as they clear content censorship. The case of Ocean's Eight is that WB never submitted the film for censorship. They simply do not want to add a flop to their great 2018 China report card.

 

It remains unchanged, though, that only Big Six and Legendary can apply for American revenue-sharing releases. Titles from LGF and other American studios must be released as flat-fee releases or non-American revenue-sharing releases. The trick is that Big Six and Legendary only produce some 40-50 films per year combined (I didn't count; should the number be in that range), and for each film submitted, the Film Bureau decide whether or not the content is suitable for China.

 

I have been saying this for years. Three barriers for foreign studios and producers to do film business in China, there are. The first one is (content) censorship. Always censorship. It is the core on which the Chinese government is never likely to compromise. The same goes to all other contents (media, publishing, games, internet, etc), not just limited to film. The second barrier is distribution license. Foreign studios have no say on release dates as long as only CFGC and Hua Xia are allowed to distrbute imported films. A third distributor does not change the picture much unless studios can distribute films for themselves. The third one is quote system which is the least important for the Government but necessory when local films are not strong enough.

Edited May 24, 2018 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

What is more embarrassing than its flop is that theaters are still allocating as many as 75k+ shows for SOLO on opening day. The managers must have put Solo as a "blockbuster", betting on it to boost the box office.....

 

I am very curious to see how low Solo's per show attendance will be.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2018 by firedeep

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, firedeep said:

What is more embarrassing than its flop is that theaters are still allocating as many as 75k+ shows for SOLO on opening day. The managers must have put Solo as a "blockbuster", betting on it to boost the box office.....

 

I am very curious to see how low Solo's per show attendance will be.

 

 

Solo per show attendance will be LoLo

I cant believe they gave it 27%, I thought 20%/55k screens at best.

 

IW will have 20% instead and look like it wont bump. Should bump 110%+ on Saturday and hold well sunday as they give it back shows

Edited May 24, 2018 by POTUS

[Olive]

Thursday Est

How Long Will I Love U 28.25M/366.3M, -6.3%

AIW 18.6M/2022.4m, -12% 
A quite Place 7.44M/152.3M  -16%

Ranger Solo midnights 730k, only 80% below EP8

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

Thursday Est

How Long Will I Love U 28.25M/366.3M, -6.3%

AIW 18.6M/2022.4m, -12% 
A quite Place 7.44M/152.3M  -16%

Ranger Solo midnights 730k, only 80% below EP8

Wow, that are $113K.....

 

And if it follows TLJ it would do ~12.5M on Fri (incl. MN)

14M on Saturday and 9.5M on Sunday for a total of 36M, that would be just $5.65M OW...

 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Taruseth

[John Rambo]

19 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

 

19 hours ago, Barnack said:

2 different type of movies and that is important with the very limited revenues sharing import slot system in the China market. There is certain film a studio will accept to be played in China without having a share of the gross, they will not engage in that practice with a movie like this, really bad precedent to set.

 

And if you want to get 25% of the box office, you need to have access and burn an import slot:

http://chinafilminsider.com/how-many-import-slots-does-each-studio-get/

https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/10/sabrina-mccutchan-dje.pdf

 

There is around 36 slot in a year, for the 6 studios and a couple of other player to share, Warner achieved to get around 5/6 a year in recent year's.

 

You release Rampage, Tomb Raider and Ready Player One for sure, that is already 3 slot.

 

For sure WB will want to release The Meg, Mowgli, Potter, Aquaman (or maybe one of those will be next year to save one), but that is already 7 China movie for just one studio, I would imagine they simply could not fit a movie like Ocean's 8 in, would not be surprised if that franchise would mean little there.

 

Like I said if you do not achieve to qualify for the revenues sharing program you can have a buyer that you can sell to for a local distributor for a fixed fee, but those are really small amount and not a practice studio want to encourage, specially not for a small-mid budget franchise movie like this.

 

 

That's a good insight  Never thought revenue sharing program  

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

 

 

 

[Barnack]

47 minutes ago, John Rambo said:

 

That's a good insight  Never thought revenue sharing program  

I will point to even better up to date insight in the people that responded to me:

It is apparently less rigid now but I imagine a very similar dynamic (you know they will accept only a limited amount of movies you submit)

[Valonqar]

I wouldn't complain if the theater played AIW by mistake! 

 

Please say this is true:

 

[Fake]

Presales for IW down 10% from yesterday. Chances of having substantial increase look slim.

 

Hoping for at least 20M tomorrow.

 

 

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I wouldn't complain if the theater played AIW by mistake! 

 

Please say this is true:

 

Yeah olive gave us the Est of Solo's midnights.

[Valonqar]

Thanks! 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

8 minutes ago, Fake said:

Presales for IW down 10% from yesterday. Chances of having substantial increase look slim.

 

Hoping for at least 20M tomorrow.

 

 

The only thing SOLO is able to pull off is cutting into IW's legs.

 

Some dumb theater arranged four IMAX shows for SOLO, only one for IW which sold more tickets than all SOLO shows combined.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

19 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

 

 

 

The projector couldn't recognize Star Wars.

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, firedeep said:

The projector couldn't recognize Star Wars.

Projector be like we know you don’t wanna see this movie let me give you the thing you really want. 

[justvision]

25 minutes ago, firedeep said:

The projector couldn't recognize Star Wars.

or to slightly paraphrase what someone said, "I think it's good, except it sucks. So let me show you what is really good".

[ZeeSoh]

Douban rating for Solo is out

 

Rogue One - 7.3

TLJ - 7.2

TFA - 7.1

Solo - 6.7

 

Thats not a good start for Solo. Its early and may change though. 

 

Some other low performing movies

 

BR2049 - 8.2 (low BO performance)

Pacific Rim Uprising - 5.7

Transformers 5 - 5

Power Rangers - 4.7