China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Valonqar]

20 hours ago, a2k said:

MI6 will be the 5th Hollywood film this year to cross $150 in China - AIW, JW2, RPO, MI6, Rampage

6 including Meg but guess that's a Chinese production.

Fuck, why couldn't AM&TW cross 150M in China? It was well positioned. Is it MI6 opening a week later? 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, why couldn't AM&TW cross 150M in China? It was well positioned. Is it MI6 opening a week later? 

Yes. When a bigger blockbuster opens a week later, the previous one loses most of it's screens even if it has good WOM.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Yes. When a bigger blockbuster opens a week later, the previous one loses most of it's screens even if it has good WOM.

Thanks for explaining. 

Edited September 6, 2018 by Valonqar

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, why couldn't AM&TW cross 150M in China? It was well positioned. Is it MI6 opening a week later? 

don't know how many MCU movies crossed 2x in China in last 3-4 years but am betting hardly any of them were sequels.

[ZeeSoh]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

don't know how many MCU movies crossed 2x in China in last 3-4 years but am betting hardly any of them were sequels.

Surprisingly, of the 6 MCU movies released since 2017 (including Ant Man 2), two movies have crossed 2x and both of them were sequels (GotG2 and Thor 3). The non sequels (SMH and BP) both failed to get to 2x. 

 

I dont know the multipliers for movies before 2017 but I’ll try and find out

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Surprisingly, of the 6 MCU movies released since 2017 (including Ant Man 2), two movies have crossed 2x and both of them were sequels (GotG2 and Thor 3). The non sequels (SMH and BP) both failed to get to 2x. 

 

I dont know the multipliers for movies before 2017 but I’ll try and find out

That's interesting. Thor3 and GOTG2 did 2.58-2.66x Dom while SMH and AM2 (at $217-218) are 2.86x Dom. BP close to 3.5x Dom. So Thor3 and GOTG2 legging best in China shows how it liked the movies to differently. SMH especially was a big surprise in China with sub-1.7x legs.

[Valonqar]

SMH underperformed cause Tom looks like a dork.  Supposedly China only likes hot manly actors which should explain why Thor, Chris Pratt, The Rock, Statham and F&F do so well. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

29 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

SMH underperformed cause Tom looks like a dork.  Supposedly China only likes hot manly actors which should explain why Thor, Chris Pratt, The Rock, Statham and F&F do so well. 

What about Andrew Garfield? He looked like an cool eye-candy compared to Tom Holland & Tobey Maguire.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

What about Andrew Garfield? He looked like an cool eye-candy compared to Tom Holland & Tobey Maguire.

he's better looking but unlikable or at least that stupid vampire hair made him look like a douche. 

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

SMH underperformed cause Tom looks like a dork.  Supposedly China only likes hot manly actors which should explain why Thor, Chris Pratt, The Rock, Statham and F&F do so well. 

which bodes well for Aquaman  

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

which bodes well for Aquaman  

 

and  

[fastclock]

Hey... how would you know what the China audience wants?

🤔

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, a2k said:

That's interesting. Thor3 and GOTG2 did 2.58-2.66x Dom while SMH and AM2 (at $217-218) are 2.86x Dom. BP close to 3.5x Dom. So Thor3 and GOTG2 legging best in China shows how it liked the movies to differently. SMH especially was a big surprise in China with sub-1.7x legs.

SMH had Apes the next w/e which like MI6  swiped most of the screens. It still performed significantly better than previous SM movies there.

 

It also had the promise of RDJ and IM (who are huge there) - maybe 7 minutes wasn't enough for them. 

 

Thor 3 had a big jump from Thor 2 - though that was also 4 years difference but GOTG 2 performed the same as the first ($96m to $100m - including the ticket surcharge)

[Gavin Feng]

If you lose the 2nd wknd, you will lose the multiple. China is very different from US in arranging screens & showtimes. In US, you could keep the theater counts and screens by the distribution agreements for at least 2 weeks even if you have a bad opening. But in China, there is no official agreement of screens between distributors and cinema chains. If you have a bad opening, you could lose 90% showtimes on the 2nd wknd. If you have a huge opening, you could also lose 50%-plus showtimes on your 2nd wknd only because another blockbuster come. If you have a great WOM after opening day with a low number, you would get more and more showtimes. This is almost “liberalisation”. How much showtimes a movie would get is basically decided by cinema chains and pre-sale performance in China. Some local distributors can do something for getting more like kickback for theaters’ managers or making over to theaters some percentage point of split in box office. The first way is very common for local titles, but it doesn’t have much help after opening day. The second way is not common for blockbuster. Some local titles may do this(China Film Group don’t allow Hollywood studios to do it) only when the film already released for a month/weeks or try to break any records.

 

Cap 2- 2.94 multiple, with the help of qingming festival from the first Friday to Monday, no enemy on it’s 2nd wknd, great WOM.

 

Day of Future Past - 2.94 multiple, only a local title on it’s 2nd wknd, Children’s Day & dragon boat festival on it’s 2nd wknd, great WOM.

 

GotG - 3.11 multiple, no big enemy in 2 weeks, great WOM.

 

Ultron - 1.51 multiple of its 6-day opining, no enemy until San Andreas after 3 weeks.

 

Ant-Man - 2.46 multiple, only a Conan movie on Lang’s 2nd wknd & a milddle-budget local title on it’s 3nd wknd.

 

Civil War - 1.98 multiple, almost no big enemy in 3-4 weeks with average WOM.

 

Doctor Strange - 2.50 multiple, no big enemy in 2 weeks with great WOM.

 

GotG2 - 2.00 multiple, facing Dangal started from opening day & King Arther and Power Ranger on 2nd wknd.

 

Homecoming - 1.67 multiple, Apes on Spidy’s 2nd wknd.

 

Thor: Ragnarok - 2.06 multiple, Murder on the Orient Express on Thor’s 2nd wknd, JL on his 3nd wknd.

 

Black Panther - 1.52 multiple, Tomb Raider on it’s 2nd wknd.

 

Infinity War - 1.88 multiple, only met one big enemy How Long Will I Love U(not huge in pre-sale) in 5 weeks.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

AM2 looking to land on 840m, a multiplier of about 1.8x. What prevented it from reaching 2x?

 

1. it opened on the last weekend of the summer, which boosted the opening. 

2. its WOM was not good enough, certainly not as good as Thor2, looking back.

3. MI6 opened on its 2nd weekend.

[Fake]

MI6 should do 45M minimum today. Could go as high as 50M!

 

Weekend looking like 200M +/- 10M.

Edited September 7, 2018 by Fake

[A Marvel Fanboy]

4 minutes ago, Fake said:

MI6 should do 45M minimum today. Could go as high as 50M!

 

Weekend looking like 200M +/- 10M.

hoping for 50m/90m/72m 210m weekend

 

down 60% from OW, 930 cume

Edited September 7, 2018 by firedeep

[blablabat]

5 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

If you lose the 2nd wknd, you will lose the multiple. China is very different from US in arranging screens & showtimes. In US, you could keep the theater counts and screens by the distribution agreements for at least 2 weeks even if you have a bad opening. But in China, there is no official agreement of screens between distributors and cinema chains. If you have a bad opening, you could lose 90% showtimes on the 2nd wknd. If you have a huge opening, you could also lose 50%-plus showtimes on your 2nd wknd only because another blockbuster come. If you have a great WOM after opening day with a low number, you would get more and more showtimes. This is almost “liberalisation”. How much showtimes a movie would get is basically decided by cinema chains and pre-sale performance in China. Some local distributors can do something for getting more like kickback for theaters’ managers or making over to theaters some percentage point of split in box office. The first way is very common for local titles, but it doesn’t have much help after opening day. The second way is not common for blockbuster. Some local titles may do this(China Film Group don’t allow Hollywood studios to do it) only when the film already released for a month/weeks or try to break any records.

 

Cap 2- 2.94 multiple, with the help of qingming festival from the first Friday to Monday, no enemy on it’s 2nd wknd, great WOM.

  

Day of Future Past - 2.94 multiple, only a local title on it’s 2nd wknd, Children’s Day & dragon boat festival on it’s 2nd wknd, great WOM.

 

GotG - 3.11 multiple, no big enemy in 2 weeks, great WOM.

 

Ultron - 1.51 multiple of its 6-day opining, no enemy until San Andreas after 3 weeks.

 

Ant-Man - 2.46 multiple, only a Conan movie on Lang’s 2nd wknd & a milddle-budget local title on it’s 3nd wknd.

 

Civil War - 1.98 multiple, almost no big enemy in 3-4 weeks with average WOM.

 

Doctor Strange - 2.50 multiple, no big enemy in 2 weeks with great WOM.

 

GotG2 - 2.00 multiple, facing Dangal started from opening day & King Arther and Power Ranger on 2nd wknd.

 

Homecoming - 1.67 multiple, Apes on Spidy’s 2nd wknd.

 

Thor: Ragnarok - 2.06 multiple, Murder on the Orient Express on Thor’s 2nd wknd, JL on his 3nd wknd.

 

Black Panther - 1.52 multiple, Tomb Raider on it’s 2nd wknd.

 

Infinity War - 1.88 multiple, only met one big enemy How Long Will I Love U(not huge in pre-sale) in 5 weeks.

What is ur Final gross prediction for MI6?

Is 200M $ possible or at least 180?

[a2k]

Didn't expect AM2 to do less than AIW legs going by the difference in opening numbers. AIW's 1.88x was very good after those previews and ow. AM2 did show a huge bump from AM1's ow and 840 odd / $122-123 total is great compared to other 'solo' CBMs.

[Gavin Feng]

5 hours ago, blablabat said:

What is ur Final gross prediction for MI6?

Is 200M $ possible or at least 180?

I think $165-175M.