Jump to content

A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

Recommended Posts



7 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said:

And a possible OW scenario like this?
FRI-140M
SAT-206M(+40%)
SUN-155M(-25%)
501M

Could happen. Although that would be a quite high PS to OW multiplier. One of the highest infact for a SH movie (only behind Thor Ragnarok - atleast in the past 2 years). But with good ratings and WOM it is definitely possible. Although Olive mentioned that it is quite cold and snowy over the weekend which could impact grosses so who knows. Let's see how today goes, we'll have a clearer picture by end of today. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



 

1 hour ago, Ash Skywalker said:

And a possible OW scenario like this?
FRI-140M
SAT-206M(+40%)
SUN-155M(-25%)
501M

Pacing to 140m.  Evening walkups could be big with Wom and be higher

Expecting a 50% bump tomorrow with that 9.5 rating

525m/$76m very possible.  

  • Like 2
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

Pacing to 140m.  Evening walkups could be big with Wom and be higher

Expecting a 50% bump tomorrow with that 9.5 rating

525m/$76m very possible.  

 

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Down to 9.5 with 20k votes

 

Also running at about 8m/h at the moment will increase later hopefully. Personally I'd say 130m locked for the day, possible 140-150

A little conservatively,

140

190 (+36%)

150 (-21%)

= 480 ($70)

With 480-520 ow and very good wom one would think 1100 total is a realistic goal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

A little conservatively,

140

190 (+36%)

150 (-21%)

= 480 ($70)

With 480-520 ow and very good wom one would think 1100 total is a realistic goal.

Since its not a frontoaded sequel and the highest SH rating, I think 2.5x OW is possible with holiday help

1250-1300m/$182-189m

$200m a reach but possible with no competition next week.  Need to see a -20% hold sunday and a -10% hold or better on tuesday to have a chance

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Since its not a frontoaded sequel and the highest SH rating, I think 2.5x OW is possible with holiday help

1250-1300m/$182-189m

$200m a reach but possible with no competition next week.  Need to see a -20% hold sunday and a -10% hold or better on tuesday to have a chance

Aquaman_Jason_Momao_DC_Comics_Banner.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites





Gwad, if it gets >150 yuan on Friday should do >525 over the weekend.

150

210 (+40%)

168 (-20%)

= 528

 

551/$80 ow on cards seemed impossible a couple of days back.

Edited by a2k
Link to comment
Share on other sites





25 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why do you guys still think the movie will have only a 2.5x multiplier if it is so well received? Shouldn't it have legs like Ready Player One (3.5x)? I don't see the movie making less than $200 mil with this type of reception. I believe 3x is very likely.

I’m not a specialist, but i think even with Aquaman being a first movie, it’s still a DC movie which is a big brand, the character appear on JL, so it will be more frontloaded than RPO which was really something new (despite the book). I can see a 3x because of that 9.5 average, but more than that i think it’s too much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Venom vs AQM WW

 

Assuming Venom does $860 ww, it's looking at $213 Dom + $270 China + $377 OS-China

 

AQM's Dom+China could be similar to Venom's but swapping the markets : $270 odd Dom + $210 odd China

Then $380 OS-China to match Venom's WW doesn't seem unrealistic.

 

Am expecting at least $330 OS-China which takes it to $810 WW using $270 Dom and $210 China

 

Edited by a2k
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Venom vs AQM WW

 

Assuming Venom does $860 ww, it's looking at $213 Dom + $270 China + $377 OS-China

 

AQM's Dom+China could be similar to Venom's but swapping the markets : $270 odd Dom + $210 odd China

Then $380 OS-China to match Venom's WW doesn't seem unrealistic.

 

Am expecting at least $330 OS-China which takes it to $800 WW using $270 Dom and $210 China

800m worldwide will be awesome. DC should really focus on making individual superhero movies instead of team-ups. Wonder Woman was excellent, Dark Knight Trilogy was perfect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



17 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why do you guys still think the movie will have only a 2.5x multiplier if it is so well received? Shouldn't it have legs like Ready Player One (3.5x)? I don't see the movie making less than $200 mil with this type of reception. I believe 3x is very likely.

Its possible.  With Vm breaking the ceiling on Single SH movies then we know the potential audience size is there.

Vm will get over $270m.  I thought $280m+ could happen early on but the drops steepened as most movie goers were able to see it by the second weekend.   Vm will have a 2.43 OW multi with a larger OW due to 1 month of anticipation with a late release date.

With a smaller OW and no FB2 competition next weekend 3x is possible for Aq

 

RPO had a smaller OW, easier to score 3.5 OW multi.  With a 9.0 rating it opened to 86m and bumped 83% on Saturday.

 

Vm bumped 36% off of a big 223m OD. 

 

Tomorrow will be interesting to see, 50%+ is feasible. 

Vm OD PSm was 3.7.  Sat PS was 66m.  It it did 4.59x to 303m

Aq will do at least 4x its 35m PS.  Look for 5x tomorrow 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites







Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.