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MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread

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7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Wandering Earth Monday

Time
Monday
Gross Change Change % % of total
Presales ¥50      
12:00 ¥101 ¥51 102.00%  
13:00 ¥123 ¥22 21.78%  
14:00 ¥155 ¥32 26.02%  
15:00 ¥180 ¥25 16.13%  
16:00 ¥201 ¥21 11.67%  
17:00 ¥219 ¥18 8.96%  
18:00 ¥244 ¥25 11.42%  
19:00 ¥276 ¥32 13.11%  
20:00 ¥302 ¥26 9.42%  
21:00 ¥322 ¥20 6.62%  
22:00        


Update:

14:00: ¥155mn which is around ¥51mn down from Sunday at same time but hourly addition are very strong. ¥360mn  projected.Will keep updating, in case I missed, someone who is online comment the gross during the time. 

17:00: In last 3 hours the film added ¥64mn, but with a diminishing trend. Hope with start of evening shows, pace will pick up and film hit ¥315-320mn by 21:00. Final number shall be around ¥340mn.

20:00: In last 3 hours added ¥81mn and crossed ¥300mn. Shall add another ¥15mn for ¥315mn by 21:00. Final number ¥335-340mn.

 

At 2100 crossed ¥322mn. Added ¥20mn in last hour, shall add similar number to full day. ¥342-345mn full Monday. @fmpro

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If Wandering Earth do ¥300M on the 2nd SAT, we can start to think Wandering Earth 3nd wknd> Alita opening weekend.

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49 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

If Wandering Earth do ¥300M on the 2nd SAT, we can start to think Wandering Earth 3nd wknd> Alita opening weekend.

400m second saturday looking possible with these holds.

I project 115m for the next friday.  Alita looks like its under 100m so far for OD

 

WW2 293m Tuesday   Summer workday

          406m Saturday

ORS   142m  Mon

          124m Tues

          150m  Sat 

Edited by POTUS
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The Wandering Earth ¥342 million or $50.368 million Monday. Cume ¥2.350 Billion or $348.086 million.

Date Gross in CNY ('000) Gross in $ Weekend Weekly Daily Change L/W Change
Previews ¥13,154 $1,948,741        
05/02/2019 ¥187,773 $27,818,222        
06/02/2019 ¥257,329 $38,122,815     37.04%  
07/02/2019 ¥338,606 $50,163,852   $118,053,630 31.58%  
08/02/2019 ¥382,613 $56,683,407     13.00%  
09/02/2019 ¥414,105 $61,439,911     8.39%  
10/02/2019 ¥414,788 $61,541,246 $179,664,565   0.16%  
11/02/2019 ¥342,000 $50,368,189     -18.16% 2484.65%

 

Total ¥2,350,368 $348,086,383        
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Monday Hourly updates

Time
Monday
Gross Change Change % % of total
Presales ¥50     14.62%
12:00 ¥101 ¥51 102.00% 29.53%
13:00 ¥123 ¥22 21.78% 35.96%
14:00 ¥155 ¥32 26.02% 45.32%
15:00 ¥180 ¥25 16.13% 52.63%
16:00 ¥201 ¥21 11.67% 58.77%
17:00 ¥219 ¥18 8.96% 64.04%
18:00 ¥244 ¥25 11.42% 71.35%
19:00 ¥276 ¥32 13.11% 80.70%
20:00 ¥302 ¥26 9.42% 88.30%
21:00 ¥322 ¥20 6.62% 94.15%
22:00 ¥332 ¥10 3.11% 97.08%
         
Final ¥342      

 

  • Presales from Midnight were 14.6% of the full day.
  • Mid point somewhere around 14:40 CST
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The Wandering Earth will miss $50mn by a brisk. Final number at midnight is $49.78mn. $ got strong by ¥0.05 today.

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23 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Tuesday presales at midnight ¥40mn. If continue with Monday multiplier, will have Tuesday of $40mn.

Im not sure today dropped just 18% but tuesday PS is down 20%

PSm could increase by 10% but it usually shrinks by a few percent on Tues

Ill wait and see

Edited by POTUS

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26 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Tuesday presales at midnight ¥40mn. If continue with Monday multiplier, will have Tuesday of $40mn.

PS sales will increase a couple of hours still and add a few millions.

 

should do much more than 40 mill $.

 

Im more like o/u 300 mill yuan??

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1 minute ago, fmpro said:

PS sales will increase a couple of hours still and add a few millions.

 

should do much more than 40 mill $.

 

Im more like o/u 300 mill yuan??

Comparing mid night Monday with midnight Tuesday which is 20% down.

As per @POTUS Tuesday multiple is bit lower than Monday, still I am hoping for $40mn.

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3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Comparing mid night Monday with midnight Tuesday which is 20% down.

As per @POTUS Tuesday multiple is bit lower than Monday, still I am hoping for $40mn.

Okay. 20% drop would suprise me.. We will see. Nice hourly chart btw👍

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1 minute ago, fmpro said:

Okay. 20% drop would suprise me.. We will see. Nice hourly chart btw👍

But then Monday pre sale drop from Sunday was 35% but final drop was just 18% so yeah, will be clear after matinees.

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Even if 20% drop for workdays, 2nd week probably will be over $250M.

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$750mn ~¥5 Billion is locked IMO. Unless it drop like stone in a lake for no reason. Week 1 (extended) will end at ~$475mn. (F-T $357mn)

 

Shall hit $100-110mn 2nd Weekend and $160-175mn approx Week, for two weeks total of $635-650mn Approx.

 

Another $100mn can be done easily.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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May be Monday still had some holiday leftovers as Tuesday morning shows are rather slow comparative to Monday and perhaps today box office will be back to normalcy. 

Using the yesterday hourly change trend, Tuesday from 12:00 is heading for ¥222mn or $33mn. Though that's not final number, next 2 hours shall gave better idea.

 

That said, ¥222mn will still be more than half (54%) of Sunday (even Saturday) when usually its around 35-40% for most high score films. Aquaman had Tuesday 33% of Sunday while Bumble bee was 30% only.

 

Comparing with Local films, ORS has 2nd Tuesday 51% of 2nd Sunday.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder

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AT 14:00 ¥109mn, which is on the line of the formulae I am using to project. Using that Tuesday is on line to ¥235mn Approx.

FYR, The bold numbers will be the actual and normal will be the projected number at that time.

Time
Tuesday
Gross Change Change % % of total
Presales ¥40     17.06%
12:00 ¥72 ¥32 80.00% 30.70%
13:00 ¥87 ¥15 20.83% 37.10%
14:00 ¥109 ¥22 25.08% 46.40%
15:00 ¥126 ¥17 15.66% 53.67%
16:00 ¥140 ¥14 11.38% 59.78%
17:00 ¥152 ¥12 8.75% 65.01%
18:00 ¥170 ¥17 11.18% 72.28%
19:00 ¥191 ¥22 12.87% 81.59%
20:00 ¥209 ¥18 9.27% 89.15%
21:00 ¥223 ¥14 6.52% 94.96%
22:00 ¥230 ¥7 3.06% 97.87%
         
Final ¥235      
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Looks like a lot of people didn't go back to work yesterday.

Evening rate should pick up. Should be 60% of Sunday

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We are back to the big numbers. Very good matinees. 90% of Monday. 

Time
Tuesday
Gross Change Change % % of total
Presales ¥40     14.77%
12:00 ¥72 ¥32 80.00% 26.58%
13:00 ¥87 ¥15 20.83% 32.12%
14:00 ¥109 ¥22 25.08% 40.17%
15:00 ¥131 ¥22 20.38% 48.36%
16:00 ¥150 ¥19 14.22% 55.24%
17:00 ¥166 ¥16 10.67% 61.14%
18:00 ¥188 ¥22 13.39% 69.33%
19:00 ¥216 ¥28 15.12% 79.81%
20:00 ¥239 ¥23 10.67% 88.33%
21:00 ¥257 ¥18 7.42% 94.88%
22:00 ¥266 ¥9 3.45% 98.15%
         
Final ¥271      
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