China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[charlie Jatinder]

2 months in the year, no Indian release in China yet. Seems like the market is almost dead.

 

Back home, many films have been purchased for the release including Andhadhun, Adirindi, 2.0 (April release) but nothing solid.

[Fake]

Today looks to be heading for 70m and tomorrow should do 60-62m.

 

So 4.13B after Thursday.

 

Friday needs to be above 75m for a 300m weekend, which will keep it on track for 5B.

[charlie Jatinder]

Crossed ¥4 Billion. Will cross $600mn today.

[setna]

Then it seems will be number 3 all time in a single territory passing BP, if it gets 5B ( 744 million USD) will be very close from number 2 Avatar and let´s see if with this will be number 1 this year in a single territory.

Edited February 20, 2019 by setna

[Olive]

5B is dead, it has fell behind ORS on daily gross, the later only made 1B after 15th day in relase.

[a2k]

Should be a battle between TLK, AWE, SW9, TA4 for biggest single market gross in $ this year. Other movies can be thrown in the mix as BO is unpredictable but those 4 seem promising right now. To reduce it further, TLK vs AWE imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Wandering Earth

Date	Gross in ¥ ('000)	Gross in $	Daily Change	L/W Change	Gross To Date	Weekend	Weekly	Weekend Change	Weekly Change
Previews	¥13,154	$1,948,741			$1,948,741
05/02/2019	¥188,471	$27,921,630			$29,870,370
06/02/2019	¥258,318	$38,269,333	37.06%		$68,139,704
07/02/2019	¥339,810	$50,342,222	31.55%		$118,481,926		$118,481,926
08/02/2019	¥383,958	$56,882,667	12.99%		$175,364,593
09/02/2019	¥416,300	$61,765,579	8.58%		$237,130,171
10/02/2019	¥416,602	$61,810,386	0.07%		$298,940,557	$180,458,631
11/02/2019	¥338,783	$49,894,404	-19.28%	2460.34%	$348,834,961
12/02/2019	¥258,149	$38,131,315	-23.58%	36.57%	$386,966,275
13/02/2019	¥215,430	$31,868,343	-16.42%	-16.73%	$418,834,618
14/02/2019	¥351,608	$51,936,189	62.97%	3.17%	$470,770,807		$352,288,881		197.34%
15/02/2019	¥181,164	$26,759,823	-48.48%	-52.96%	$497,530,630
16/02/2019	¥232,805	$34,387,740	28.51%	-44.33%	$531,918,370
17/02/2019	¥192,488	$28,432,496	-17.32%	-54.00%	$560,350,866	$89,580,059		-50.36%
18/02/2019	¥99,505	$14,697,932	-48.31%	-70.54%	$575,048,799
19/02/2019	¥112,055	$16,576,183	12.78%	-56.53%	$591,624,982
20/02/2019	¥67,000	$9,970,238	-39.85%	-68.71%	$601,595,220

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Wandering Earth

Date	Gross in ¥ ('000)	Gross in $	Daily Change	L/W Change	Gross To Date	Weekend	Weekly	Weekend Change	Weekly Change
Previews	¥13,154	$1,948,741			$1,948,741
05/02/2019	¥188,471	$27,921,630			$29,870,370
06/02/2019	¥258,318	$38,269,333	37.06%		$68,139,704
07/02/2019	¥339,810	$50,342,222	31.55%		$118,481,926		$118,481,926
08/02/2019	¥383,958	$56,882,667	12.99%		$175,364,593
09/02/2019	¥416,300	$61,765,579	8.58%		$237,130,171
10/02/2019	¥416,602	$61,810,386	0.07%		$298,940,557	$180,458,631
11/02/2019	¥338,783	$49,894,404	-19.28%	2460.34%	$348,834,961
12/02/2019	¥258,149	$38,131,315	-23.58%	36.57%	$386,966,275
13/02/2019	¥215,430	$31,868,343	-16.42%	-16.73%	$418,834,618
14/02/2019	¥351,608	$51,936,189	62.97%	3.17%	$470,770,807		$352,288,881		197.34%
15/02/2019	¥181,164	$26,759,823	-48.48%	-52.96%	$497,530,630
16/02/2019	¥232,805	$34,387,740	28.51%	-44.33%	$531,918,370
17/02/2019	¥192,488	$28,432,496	-17.32%	-54.00%	$560,350,866	$89,580,059		-50.36%
18/02/2019	¥99,505	$14,697,932	-48.31%	-70.54%	$575,048,799
19/02/2019	¥112,055	$16,576,183	12.78%	-56.53%	$591,624,982
20/02/2019	¥67,000	$9,970,238	-39.85%	-68.71%	$601,595,220

• Crossed ¥4 Billion
• Crossed $600 Million.

[setna]

It seems with this today drop, 700 million is in danger.....

Edited February 20, 2019 by setna

[xiao2000]

I would be very surprised if TWE doesn't reach 700m USD: that corresponds roughtly to 4.7 billion RMB using today's exchange rate, since it only needs to match ORS's drops when it normalized after the Lantern Festival. ORS dropped around 55% week-over-week with heavy competition, TWE's competition will not be as fierce. 

 

With today's drop, TWE only needs to do 83% of what Operation Red Sea (ORS) earned from the comparable day on to reach RMB 4.5 billion. It needs to do about 31% better to reach RMB 4.75 billion, and 79% better to reach RMB 5 billion. The latter is unlikely to happen. It did around 62% better than ORS on a comparable Wednesday. (RMB 65 million versus RMB 40 million) 

 

 

[xiao2000]

I just found out about another interesting fact: the vast majority of kids are back in school by Feb 21. Here is a list of cities and their last day of winter vacation in China: 

 

February 17: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Nanjing, Changsha, Suzhou, Wuxi, Dongguan, Kunming 

February 19-20: Shanghai, Wuhan, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Taiyuan, Hefei, Shijiazhuang, Ningbo, Nanchang

February 24 or later: Beijing, Chongqing, Nanning, Guiyang, Shenyang, Changchun

 

This could mean that next week's drops are not as bad as we might think based on this week's drops. I guess we'll have to see. 

 

 

[xiao2000]

Some evidence on the impacts of school holidays ending: 

 

On Monday, Boonie Bears had a gross that was 2 million yuan above the Valentine Day love flick, while by Wednesday it dropped to 0.25 million yuan below. 

[raulbalarezo]

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Sweet, but I wish it had a wider release in America.  

[ZeeSoh]

Alita Midnight - 6.57m Yuan (0.98m USD)

 

Midnight's of some other recent movies

 

Venom - 14.44

Ant Man 2 - 9.5

Mission Impossible 6 - 9.38

Black Panther - 8.54

Aquaman - 8.22

Thor Ragnarok - 6.89

Bumblebee - 5.48

Fantastic Beasts 2 - 5.42

 

 

 

[Bishop54]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Alita Midnight - 6.57m Yuan (0.98m USD)

 

Midnight's of some other recent movies

 

Venom - 14.44

Ant Man 2 - 9.5

Mission Impossible 6 - 9.38

Black Panther - 8.54

Aquaman - 8.22

Thor Ragnarok - 6.89

Bumblebee - 5.48

Fantastic Beasts 2 - 5.42

 

 

 

How is Alita doing with audiences? 

[ZeeSoh]

12 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

How is Alita doing with audiences? 

Maoyan score has not come out yet. Rating on Douban is 7.6 which is quite decent. Below are Douban scores for some recent and relevant movies.

 

Ready Player One - 8.7

Infinity War - 8.1

Mission Impossible 6 - 8.1

The Wandering Earth - 7.9

Aquaman - 7.7

Ant Man and The Wasp - 7.3

Venom - 7.2

Bumblebee - 7.1

 

Alita's score will probably change as more reviews come in but for now it seems decent. Not as high as RP1 or MI6 which might indicate a huge breakout but good enough that it can indicate a mid sized breakout. Besides Maoyan score is more relevant and important so we will have to wait and see how that comes out

Edited February 21, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[xiao2000]

After Thursday's 54 million RMB gross, TWE needs to do 84% of ORS from the comparable day on to reach RMB 4.5 billion. It needs to do about 39% better to reach RMB 4.75 billion. It did less than ORS on the comparable Thursday because the latter was on International Women's Day, a half-day holiday for women in China. (TWE 54 million vs ORS 68 million)

 

I believe that Maoyan's prediction of merely 40 million RMB for Friday is an underestimate. Its algorithm overestimated TWE earlier in the week because it did not take into account schools opening mid-week, and Wandering Earth is a relatively family-friendly movie among Chinese New Year releases. Now it's overcompensating by overestimating TWE's drops for today. 

 

 

 

[MrGlass2]

Starts at 9.0 on Taopiaopiao.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, xiao2000 said:

After Thursday's 54 million RMB gross, TWE needs to do 84% of ORS from the comparable day on to reach RMB 4.5 billion. It needs to do about 39% better to reach RMB 4.75 billion. It did less than ORS on the comparable Thursday because the latter was on International Women's Day, a half-day holiday for women in China. (TWE 54 million vs ORS 68 million)

 

Where do you think TWE will likely end up? Around 4.6 - 4.7 B?