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China Box Office: General Discussion Thread

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11 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

 

And what do you think about Jumanji future? Next week drop like sw8, or maybe it will have some legs, and will at least double OW?

WoM for Jumanji isn't as strong as expected.

With Wonder and Secret Superstar opening next week, it is going to be tough. 

But i think legs will definitely be much stronger than TLJ, maybe 70 - 80% drop. Really depends on presales of openers...

I think both Secret Superstar and Wonder are sleeper hits which means "meh" OW but good legs, which means Jumanji's 2nd weekend may not be that weak. 

But still too early to say IMO.

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15 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

 

And what do you think about Jumanji future? Next week drop like sw8, or maybe it will have some legs, and will at least double OW?

I doubt it will double up but legs will be better than SW8

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2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I wonder how TLJ did on Friday...

Around 3.6 mill yuan

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2 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

93.5% drop for TLJ.:whosad:

I love how China when they really hate something they just go all out.

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1 hour ago, fmpro said:

Around 3.6 mill yuan

Yep. Screen count for TLJ was 34.6% last Friday and 2.5% this Friday. The new movies took away the screens. Unless you have phenomenal WOM like Dangal, Zootopia and Coco, holding on to the screens determines the legs. With less competition, the legs would be better.

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Friday estimates

Jumanji 74M/77.2M OD

The Ex-File 3 - 47.1M/1643M  -12% 

Forever Young - 35.5M/36.7M OD

Salyut 7 -5.2M OD
The Last Jedi - 3.7M/240m  -63%/-94%
Youth - 2.4M/1393M  -68%
Suburbicon -1.66m OD
Coco  dropped out of top 10 after 49 days

Edited by Proxima Olive
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Online ticket-selling increasing fast in China

2012: 18.4%

2013: 22.3%

2014: 45.4%

2015: 65.4%

2016: 70.6%

2017: 81.0%

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2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

WoM for Jumanji isn't as strong as expected.

With Wonder and Secret Superstar opening next week, it is going to be tough. 

But i think legs will definitely be much stronger than TLJ, maybe 70 - 80% drop. Really depends on presales of openers...

I think both Secret Superstar and Wonder are sleeper hits which means "meh" OW but good legs, which means Jumanji's 2nd weekend may not be that weak. 

But still too early to say IMO.

You are forgetting Ferdinand, Nest and A Better Tomorrow 2018 for next week. With Wonder and Secret Superstar, that's five wide openers. So Jumanji would be lucky to drop 'only' 80% with soso WOM. Jumanji was overpredicted... the other holdovers next Friday will be basically gone.

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Coco did 0.55m on Friday, actually No.10 because "Zou Bihua" is fudged by government every day.

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Star Wars in China

 

giphy.gif

:hahaha::bravo:

 

people who think that Disney isn't bothered by SW collapse in China and inability to increase interest in any Asian market save tried and true Japan are deluding themselves. It doesn't matter that studios keep less money from that market, it's a matter of prestige plus you want over billion people to be available to you. has any other big franchise flopped so spectacularly over there? I can't think of any. 

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30 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

:hahaha::bravo:

 

people who think that Disney isn't bothered by SW collapse in China and inability to increase interest in any Asian market save tried and true Japan are deluding themselves. It doesn't matter that studios keep less money from that market, it's a matter of prestige plus you want over billion people to be available to you. has any other big franchise flopped so spectacularly over there? I can't think of any. 

I have hope in the new trilogy: new stories, new characters, new planets, new aesthetics... if Disney manages to market it as a new brand "thing" more "asian-like", they can rebuild from there. 

 

Also, the new trilogy will probably come out by the time Avatar 2-3 are released, so Disney may find a way to promote the trilogy along with the Avatar sequels to try to give it a boost. 

 

As for the "old" SW movies yet to be released, i bet Solo can make more money in China than Ep9 (and both quite few money).

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41 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It doesn't matter that studios keep less money from that market, it's a matter of prestige plus you want over billion people to be available to you

This is true, when you think about your Star Wars movie released in 2022, and look at figure of what the BO, toys, video game and different ancillary market could look like in China in 4-5 year's, you probably do care quite a bit.

 

44 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

has any other big franchise flopped so spectacularly over there? I can't think of any. 

There was some big ww numbers franchise that did very little in China, Hunger Games for example, but in term of making some big numbers because of a giant push and then dropping massively on the sequels, that a first that come to mind also.

 

As the market mature, it will probably become common like everywhere else to start to see from time to time big drop on sequels.

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58 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

:hahaha::bravo:

 

people who think that Disney isn't bothered by SW collapse in China and inability to increase interest in any Asian market save tried and true Japan are deluding themselves. It doesn't matter that studios keep less money from that market, it's a matter of prestige plus you want over billion people to be available to you. has any other big franchise flopped so spectacularly over there? I can't think of any. 

And who exactly are these people you are talking about?

Of course Disney isn't going to be happy that Star Wars doesn't work in China, or the other growing asian markets, I mean, who would be?

That doesn't mean that they will do much about it. Why would they risk hurting Star Wars where it actually works, just on the vague hope that a different approach may perhaps work better in China?

 

The odds of changing the general perception of a franchise are slim to say the least. You couldn't just deliver a movie that works with the audiences, you would need to get all the people to be somehow interested in the franchise again, and that doesn't really happen anywhere. They might include the odd asian here and there to see if it helps a bit, and they will obviously develop a new trilogy that can stand more on its own compared to further new episodes that require more knowledge of the entire franchise, but that's about it. They aren't going to panic just because sometime in the distant future the franchise will lose a bit of ground compare to other franchises due to not being big in China. The movies are still regularly pulling in $1b worldwide, more than enough to make a ton of cash with every new movie.

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5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Avatar 2 will get a 8 week release and will make some serious $$$.

Yes. By the time its released with inflation its likely to make a lt of $$$.  Is it coming out in 2030 or 2040

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2 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Yes. By the time its released with inflation its likely to make a lt of $$$.  Is it coming out in 2300 or 2400.

 

You got confused with the numbers. I fixed it.

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