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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Jaybee said:

With 31% increase from Thursday to Friday, is the things still looking good for 140m+. Bcos the maoyan final forecast has been reducing and now it's around 799m($127m)

I dont see only 799m. It will make 233m for the week totaling 735m. It will keep its shows on Friday for 20m/755m Tot. Itll get hurt on Saturday but get a boost from the holiday on sun-tues. It should be in the low 800s at the end of the week and then there isnt anything large opening the following weekend, so a tight hold should happen as it could have more shows than the holiday weekend if Us and Them fades as hard as I think it will.

mid 800s/$135m is the target +/-$5m

Weekend Est

Ramp   168m/$27m  -52%  670m/$107m  Total

RPO      50m/$8m    -42% 1303m/$207m

IoD       27m/$4.2m

Annil     4.5m/$700k -85%    57m/$9m

 

Edited by POTUS
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Jaybee Indie Sensation

Jaybee

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, POTUS said:

I dont see only 799m. It will make 220m for the week totaling 735m. It will keep its shows on Friday for 20m/755m Tot. Itll get hurt on Saturday but get a boost from the holiday on sun-tues. It should be in the low 800s at the end of the week and then there isnt anything large opening the following weekend, so a tight hold should happen as it could have more shows than the holiday weekend if Us and Them fades as hard as I think it will.

mid 800s/$135m is the target +/-$5m

Weekend Est

Ramp   168m/$27m  -52%  612m/$97.5m  Total

RPO      50m/$8m    -42% 1303m/$207m

IoD       27m/$4.2m

Annil     4.5m/$700k -85%    57m/$9m

 

Correct me if I am wrong but rampage has collected already around 500m by Thursday I think. So after Sunday shouldn't it be somewhere around 660-670m after a 168m weekend?

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Any comparison with other marvel movies? 

too early to tell, need a couple of days, and this is 3 weeks out instead of the usual 10-14 days. No direct comparisons. We can look at CA3 and AoU sort of...

we'll just have to look at the run rate on Mon-Tues

 

             AoU 8.6          CA3 8.6

MN     30             MN      17

T       186               F    181

W      125               S    249

Th       92               S    180

F        126                    627m/$100m OW

S        238

S        170

         534m/$86m OW

1464m/$235m      1244m/$194m

There are 60% more screens since CA3, 100% more screens since AoU, However the BO has only gone up 20% since they were released which has led to larger frontloads.  

FF8 had a 9.3 rating but only had a 1.95 OW multi on a $198m OW

We could see 1.6x OW if it an 8.6 rating.  

SH BO has waned in the last 2 years. Some here say it'll do over $300m, could be, I wouldn't be surprised if it did $200m either

 

Edited by POTUS
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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, POTUS said:

too early to tell, need a couple of days, and this is 3 weeks out instead of the usual 10-14 days. No direct comparisons. We can look at CA3 and AoU sort of...

we'll just have to look at the run rate on Mon-Tues

 

             AoU 8.6          CA3 8.6

MN     30             MN      17

T       186               F    181

W      125               S    249

Th       92               S    180

F        126                    627m/$100m OW

S        238

S        170

         534m/$86m OW

1464m/$235m      1244m/$194m

There are 60% more screens since CA3, 100% more screens since AoU, However the BO has only gone up 20% since they were released which has led to larger frontloads.  

FF8 had a 9.3 rating but only had a 1.95 OW multi on a $198m OW

We could see 1.6x OW if it an 8.6 rating.  

SH BO has waned in the last 2 years. Some here say it'll do over $300m, could be, I wouldn't be surprised if it did $200m either

 

Didn't FF8 presales start 3 weeks out?

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/30/2017 at 1:11 PM, POTUS said:

Ff8 is listed for sale. It will be interesting.

Let's see how quick it climbs to 1m. 

WC shot to 5m in 24 hours. Biggest frontload PS ever.

Kong took a day and a half to get to 1m.

 

On 3/31/2017 at 5:57 PM, POTUS said:

I think it gets to 4.5m in PS by Sunday night. If so 375m OD. 1.22B OW

I was close 2 weeks out. I think I got worse closer to OD- lower than expected PS multi

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Didn't FF8 presales start 3 weeks out?

Started on Thur the 30th,  14 days out

 

FF8 ramped up to 20k shows quickly and was over 4m in 3 days. It had 167k shows on OD

 

IW at 10.6k shows now with 1.07m in PS

After the initial roll out thru tomorrow(it should get over 4m) I expect it to go up only 15% daily until the last few days since its so far out. Will be hard to gauge

Edited by POTUS
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