China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Olive said:

midnight>1/3 OD, OD>1/3 OW, total =1.5 OW

Let's see how it goes with ¥150mn midnight.

 

MN 150 ok

OD 450 ok

 

OW 1350 (too low)

Total 2000 (too low)

 

I assume you meant OW as 5 days. If its FSS, that's gonna be too high.

 

IMO

 

OW = 4x OD

Total = 1.5x OW

 

Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[druv10]

8 minutes ago, Olive said:

midnight>1/3 OD, OD>1/3 OW, total =1.5 OW

Ok, how high are you saying it's midnight will be? I'm expecting around 100M and just don't see it being 33%+ of OD since OD presales by end of today will be about even with it.

 

I'll give you there is potential for heavy front loading towards M/N and OD but I don't see it on OD itself.

Edited April 13, 2019 by druv10

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Ok, how high are you saying it's midnight will be? I'm expecting around 100M and just don't see it being 33%+ of OD since OD presales by end of today will be about even with it.

 

I'll give you there is potential for heavy front loading towards M/N and OD but I don't see it on OD itself.

MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd.

 

Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO.

Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Olive]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd.

 

Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO.

it won't that many showtimes, at best 3k-35k(about 50% national sceen count).

use  80 average attendance, 45 ticket price

Edited April 13, 2019 by Olive

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd.

 

Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO.

Ok but is he expecting 125-170M midnight. If he is than yes it'll be more than a third of OD.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Olive said:

it won't that much showtimes, at best 3k-35k(about 50% national sceen count).

use  80 average attendance, 45 ticket price

Do midnight means just one show at one screen? I think more shows can be added but yeah taking your word for it, you would know better.

 

But that bring me to the point that if MN is just ¥126mn, (35k * 80 * 45), that will mean ¥380mn Day 1 (understandable) but only ¥1040mn 5 days (or you wanna correct OW=3x OD?) and ¥1600mn full run. @Olive

 

Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Olive]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Do midnight means just one show at one screen? I think more shows can be added but yeah taking your word for it, you would know better.

Only IMAX has 3"30am shows. 

[charlie Jatinder]

¥65 midnight ATP 

[XXR vs XXR]

So is something like this feasible....

 

¥120m

¥380m

¥220m

¥330m

¥370m

¥190m

 

 

[Olive]

11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

¥65 midnight ATP 

It will be adjust down, that's not accurate 

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

So is something like this feasible....

 

¥120m

¥380m

¥220m

¥330m

¥370m

¥190m

 

 

Possible. That would be on absolute low end of my expectations. I would be bit disappointed as well. Just want OD and Saturday over 400 and Sunday to hold over 200.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Possible. That would be on absolute low end of my expectations. I would be bit disappointed as well. Just want OD and Saturday over 400 and Sunday to hold over 200.

 

I’m trying to rein in my numbers and expectations. I don’t want to get on this $270m hype train then be mad if it “only” hits $230m.

Edited April 13, 2019 by VenomXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I’m trying to rein in my numbers and expectations. I don’t want to get on this $270m hype train then be mad if it “only” hits $230m.

230 will be actually be mad-some.

[cdsacken]

13 hours ago, a2k said:

21% bump for Shazam on Friday for 7.5 Fri, 247+ cume.

Guessing 15-20 on Sat and Sun combined for 22.5-27.5 2nd weekend and 262-267 10-day.

On track for 300 ($45) total.

 

Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20.

 

We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20.

 

We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm.

He said sat and sunday combined. 

[TalismanRing]

 

Maoyan's pre-sales have been stuck for hours.

 

:whine:

Edited April 13, 2019 by TalismanRing

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Maoyan's been stuck for hours.

 

:whine:

That means a bigger jump after that.

 

Besides, its still 10 days out. The previous record for 10 days out was ¥3.5mn and Endgame has done ¥22mn so far today for OD. In fact, TFS has increase higher than T-10 days record.

 

What I am trying to say is, it actually might be getting back to bit normalcy now. May be it will start getting 2-3x of IW dailies soon just like it did in USA after crazy first three days.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That means a bigger jump after that.

 

Besides, its still 10 days out. The previous record for 10 days out was ¥3.5mn and Endgame has done ¥22mn so far today for OD. In fact, TFS has increase higher than T-10 days record.

 

What I am trying to say is, it actually might be getting back to bit normalcy now. May be it will start getting 2-3x of IW dailies soon just like it did in USA after crazy first three days.

so less crazy but stil crazy got it its funny when we consider for endgame 2* iw a little normal this is ridiculous i cant wait too see what will happen in the week of release

Edited April 13, 2019 by john2000

[TigerPaw]

5 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20.

 

We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm.

Looking to be around 13-15 today, depending on strength tonight, already surpassing Maoyan’s estimates for the day.

15 will be a 100% bump, and will be great.

Gaining back more showtimes tomorrow as well.

Edited April 13, 2019 by TigerPaw

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Looking to be around 13-15 today, depending on strength tonight, already surpassing Maoyan’s estimates for the day.

15 will be a 100% bump, and will be great.

Gaining back more showtimes tomorrow as well.

Yeah I think 15 is possible. 4 hours left and it's at 11.9 right now. Nice to see it holding better much later like CM did.  think 1.4 legs might happen.

Edited April 13, 2019 by cdsacken