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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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Just now, Cookson said:

I’m thinking he meant through next weekend though. 800m yuan is 115m usd.. or are we saying just a 2x multiplier?

Dark Phoenix, Chasing the Dragon II & My Best Summer can take 70% of all showtimes on that weekend. Around 15% for Godzilla 2 on it's second weekend.

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34 minutes ago, Cookson said:

I’m thinking he meant through next weekend though. 800m yuan is 115m usd.. or are we saying just a 2x multiplier?

Are you familiar with the Chinese box office? A 2x multi is considered good. Many other huge blockbusters out there can only manage 1.8x or 1.9x multi. Most of the time, it depends on the Maoyan rating. A movie with a rating of 9.5+ will most likely breakout and will have huge multi. 8.5 to 8.9 rating is just so-so. Below 8.3 will have bad legs.

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33 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Are you familiar with the Chinese box office? A 2x multi is considered good. Many other huge blockbusters out there can only manage 1.8x or 1.9x multi. Most of the time, it depends on the Maoyan rating. A movie with a rating of 9.5+ will most likely breakout and will have huge multi. 8.5 to 8.9 rating is just so-so. Below 8.3 will have bad legs.

Although in all fairness many monster movies have bucked that trend even with poor Maoyan scores and I have faith in the holiday boost despite losing screen count, I still see something higher than 115m though you guys have far more knowledge and experience than I do

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4 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Although in all fairness many monster movies have bucked that trend even with poor Maoyan scores and I have faith in the holiday boost despite losing screen count, I still see something higher than 115m though you guys have far more knowledge and experience than I do

It's not gonna happen because of the competition. That competition eats the screens which Godzilla will lose fast to.

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Not good enough. It needed 150m OD. Also PS for tomorrow is just around friday PS. Even with slightly better multi its looking at 150-160m saturday. 20% drop on sunday you get around 420m yuan. Weekdays will tell us if it can hit 2x multi but I am thinking 1.9x is more likely with summer schedule being packed.

 

Good news is at least it increased from G14 considering no other market so far looks like its going to increase(I want to wait until weekend to confirm for Japan and Mexico).

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This is probably a stupid question, my apologies, but I have never understood how exactly Mayoan ratings affect the box office/legs so strongly? Are they really such a reliable reflection of the audience reaction that you can determine what WOM is like with exact precision? Or do millions of chinese people really flock to that single site and decide whether they will see a movie based on just the rating? Both, neither?

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6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Dark Phoenix, Chasing the Dragon II & My Best Summer can take 70% of all showtimes on that weekend. Around 15% for Godzilla 2 on it's second weekend.

Its possible it holds well even with show loss.  I remember Xmen holding decent during DBF with WC opening big

XMen Apoc opened to 385m OW with 48% of shows.  It dropped to 17% shows on Wed its 6th day(DBF) and legged to 800m with an 8.9 rating

 

 

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On 6/1/2019 at 4:12 AM, keysersoze123 said:

WOW. That would be crazy. So around 400m OW. does not guarantee 800m. Back to square one.

Sunday is usually close to Friday's BO after a typical 30% Saturday bump.  

Sunday should be 125-130m based on that standard. 

Today tracking 200m+ if the 15m ph rate holds.  Tomorrow will be down 35-40% due CD bumping today.

450m/ $65m OW

900m/$130m total has a shot.

 

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Aladdin badly affected by lack of shows. Its occupancy are pretty high, will touch 30% while last Saturday was just 9%. Per Show average will be ¥1100+ compared to ¥525 last Saturday.

Detective Pikachu affected by loss of screen count the most, based on Maoyan, it has the highest occupancy / attendance per screen.

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7 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Detective Pikachu affected by loss of screen count the most, based on Maoyan, it has the highest occupancy / attendance per screen.

Not a great comparison though given where it is in its release

 

Plus it had next to no material competition for 3 whole weeks 

 

Very different than Aladdin facing Godzilla in its second week

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3 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Not a great comparison though given where it is in its release

 

Plus it had next to no material competition for 3 whole weeks 

 

Very different than Aladdin facing Godzilla in its second week

We are talking about Holdovers.. aren’t we? Doesn’t it then even make DP’s weekends holding power in China even more impressive?

yes Aladdin’s screen-counts got cut, and there is demand, hence the high attendance per screen (on its 2nd weekend). It is DP’s 4th weekend and it’s attendance per screen is higher, really impressive.

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